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2022.09.06 人民币汇率破七在即

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发表于 2022-9-6 18:37:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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欧盟委员会更接近于固定天然气市场的价格。周一上午,由于市场对俄罗斯无限期暂停北溪1号管道的反应,天然气价格急剧上升。金融时报》报道称,欧盟委员会将就 "紧急批发价格上限 "的选项提出建议,所有成员国都要遵守,并提出减少需求的方法。同时,欧佩克及其盟友,包括俄罗斯,同意削减石油产量,以努力提振下挫的价格。每天减少10万桶的产量仅相当于全球需求的0.1%。

将于周二接替鲍里斯-约翰逊担任英国首相的Liz Truss起草了一份计划,以冻结英国家庭的能源价格,预计10月份的能源价格将上涨80%。据彭博社报道,该计划耗资高达1300亿英镑(1510亿美元),将迫使能源供应商向家庭收取优惠的价格,以换取政府担保的贷款。约翰逊先生在他的告别演说中称他的继任者为 "富有同情心"。他大肆宣扬自己在任期内的成就--引用了英国脱欧、covid-19疫苗的推广以及英国对乌克兰的援助。

德国汽车巨头大众汽车公司宣布,它将上市其跑车品牌保时捷,这可能是多年来最大的IPO之一。据报道,投资者期望的估值在600亿-850亿欧元(600亿-850亿美元)之间。大众汽车自2012年以来一直拥有该品牌,但关于脱钩的传言已经流传了几个月。大众汽车希望上市将有助于为其向电动汽车的转型提供资金。

中国央行将人民币参考汇率设定在两年来的最弱水平,即6.91兑1美元。在封锁阻碍了出口之后,中国的货币今年突然走弱。央行还减少了中国银行需要持有的外汇数量,这是央行希望支撑下滑的人民币的另一个迹象。

印度尼西亚各大城市爆发了抗议活动,反对政府八年来首次提高补贴燃料价格的计划。上周六,印尼总统Joko Widodo表示,由于通货膨胀,有必要将价格提高约30%。

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京(Vladimir Putin)出席了在该国东部举行的军事演习,中国和其他盟友如叙利亚和印度也参与其中。演习将持续一个星期。周一,普京先生批准了一项新的外交政策理论,该理论试图为武装干预有俄语人口的国家提供理由。

官员们说,巴基斯坦最大的湖泊面临着溢出和破坏人口稠密地区的风险。周日,在东南部信德省的曼查尔湖进行排水的尝试失败了,那里已经连续下了几天的大雨。该省生产的粮食约占巴基斯坦的一半,其中大部分已经被毁。全国各地至少有50万人在灾难性的洪水中失去了家园。

今天的事实。60%,同意国家 "正在衰落 "的英国保守党选民的比例。阅读全文。


英国新首相面临的挑战

照片。PA
周二,利兹-特拉斯将飞往苏格兰的巴尔莫勒尔城堡,女王伊丽莎白二世将邀请她组建英国新政府。57.4%的保守党党员选择这位现任外交大臣作为党的领导人,而不是她的竞争对手瑞希-苏纳克,从而确保了这次会议。

这足以让特拉斯女士获得她渴望的工作。但她的多数票并不像民调显示的那样令人印象深刻。她的表现也比她的直接前任差。鲍里斯-约翰逊在2019年获得了66%的会员票。2005年,大卫-卡梅伦获得了68%的选票。

在早些时候的一轮投票中,特拉斯女士仅得到32%的保守党议员的支持。她的支持率仅次于苏纳克先生,是自1998年引入现行规则以来,所有最终获胜的候选人中支持率最低的。内部授权不足是不祥之兆。特拉斯女士将需要带领她日益叛逆的政党度过困扰整个欧洲的能源危机。最近的保守党领导人的任期都很短。特拉斯女士将不得不努力工作以确保她在同事中的地位。

对德国和以色列的痛苦提醒

照片。GETTY IMAGES
以色列总统艾萨克-赫尔佐格周二在德国联邦议院发表讲话。他的讲话标志着纪念1972年慕尼黑奥运会上巴勒斯坦恐怖分子屠杀11名以色列运动员和教练员50周年的访问达到了高潮。

纪念日前的准备工作很紧张。7月,受害者家属拒绝了德国的赔偿提议,并表示他们不会参加周一的纪念仪式。在最后一刻达成协议后,包括对安全失误的正式道歉和对家属的赔偿,这一决定被推翻了。德国总统弗兰克-瓦尔特-施泰因迈尔(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)称,花了50年时间才达成和解,这是 "可耻的"。

稍后,赫尔佐格先生将前往卑尔根-贝尔森纳粹集中营的遗址。作为英国军队的一名士兵,他的父亲柴姆-赫尔佐格在1945年帮助解放了该集中营。年长的赫尔佐格后来成为以色列的第六任总统。第11任总统此行的象征意义,无论是个人还是政治,都很明显。

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彩虹的停滞

照片。GETTY IMAGES
南非应该是其大陆的工业引擎。然而,在过去的十五年里,南非的经济表现令人失望。尽管在1994年白人统治结束后,大多数人的收入有所增长,但在过去十年中,只有前5%的人获得了实际收益。这加剧了已经很严重的不平等。

因此,当该国在周二得到今年第二季度的最新GDP数据时,请原谅南非人以耸肩的方式来迎接它们。这些数据预计将显示,南非将继续从可怕的两年大流行中缓慢反弹。但是,由于国家电力公司功能失调,企业一直受到创纪录的停电的阻碍,因此不会有巨大的活动激增。这将是改变34%的失业率的必要条件,这是世界上已知的最高失业率。

澳大利亚住房热潮的结束

照片。阿拉米
随着政策制定者提高利率以抑制通货膨胀,许多过热市场的住房繁荣正在结束。澳大利亚的市场是最繁荣的市场之一,正经历着近40年来最急剧的衰退。根据房地产数据公司CoreLogic的数据,自中央银行5月开始收紧货币政策以来,全国的房价已经下降了3.4%。在悉尼,房价每天几乎下降1,000澳元(680美元)。

这可能只是一个开始。年度消费者价格通胀率为6.1%。周二,储备银行连续第五个月提高利率,增加0.5个百分点,至2.35%。经济学家估计,房价可能会从最高点下滑达20%。由于一些澳大利亚家庭是世界上负债最多的家庭之一,这将会造成伤害。然而,经济衰退还没有迫近。而且,即使房价下降五分之一,也会比大流行之前的价格高。


斯图尔特-布兰德的故事

照片。美联社
1968年首次出版的《整个地球目录》是一本不拘一格的工具汇编,帮助其读者过上更可持续的生活。周二,一部关于其编辑斯图尔特-布兰德的纪录片在流媒体平台上发布,其名称来自于《全地球目录》的开篇语。"我们就像神一样,不妨好好利用它"。

环保主义者喜欢《目录》。但它最持久的影响是在硅谷,它的技术-乌托邦哲学在那里得到了认可。布兰德先生与早期的计算机先驱们打成一片,并帮助发展了对现代软件至关重要的开源理念。苹果公司已故老板史蒂夫-乔布斯将该期刊称为 "我们这一代人的圣经之一"。

"我们如神 "记录了布兰德先生最近的一个项目:利用基因工程使长毛象从灭绝中复活。在他的批评者看来,这是傲慢的干涉。但是,由于他对技术有着深刻的信仰,对布兰德先生来说,这只是一种新的保护形式。

每日问答

本周,我们的咖啡师将每天为您提供一个新问题。在星期五,你的挑战是给我们所有的五个答案,并且,同样重要的是,告诉我们连接的主题。在北京时间周五17点前,将你的回答(包括提及你的家乡和国家)发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将从那些有正确答案的人中随机挑选,并在周六为每个大洲选出一名获胜者。

星期二。什么术语被用来描述一种赌博策略,即赌注翻倍,直到获得胜利?

星期一。哪个术语用于描述扑克或桥牌中玩家收到的一组牌?

通过阅读来学习音乐,就像通过邮件来做爱。

卢西亚诺-帕瓦罗蒂



The European Commission inched closer to fixing prices in the natural-gas markets. Gas prices rose dramatically on Monday morning as markets reacted to Russia’s indefinite suspension of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The Financial Times reported that the EC would recommend options for an “emergency wholesale price cap”, to be observed by all member-states, along with ways to reduce demand. Meanwhile OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to cut oil production in an effort to boost sagging prices. The reduction of output by 100,000 barrels per day corresponds to just 0.1% of global demand.

Liz Truss, who will replace Boris Johnson as Britain’s prime minister on Tuesday, has drafted a plan to freeze energy prices for British households, which are expected to rise by 80% in October. According to Bloomberg, the plan, costing up to £130bn ($151bn), will compel energy suppliers to charge households reduced rates in exchange for government-guaranteed loans. In his farewell speech Mr Johnson called his successor “compassionate”. He trumpeted his own achievements in office–citing Brexit, the rollout of the covid-19 vaccine and Britain’s aid to Ukraine.

Volkswagen, a German car giant, announced that it would list Porsche, its sports-car marque, in what could be one of the largest IPOs in years. Investors reportedly expect a valuation of between €60bn-85bn ($60bn-85bn). VW has owned the brand since 2012, but rumours about a decoupling have been circulating for months. VW hopes the listing will help fund its transition to making electric vehicles.

China’s central bank set the reference rate for the yuan at its weakest level in two years, at 6.91 to the buoyant dollar. China’s currency has suddenly weakened this year after lockdowns hampered exports. The central bank also reduced the amount of foreign currency that Chinese banks need to hold, another sign of its desire to prop up the sliding yuan.

Protests across Indonesia’s biggest cities broke out against government plans to increase subsidised fuel prices for the first time in eight years. On Saturday Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s president, said that inflation had necessitated a price increase of about 30%.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, attended military exercises in the east of the country involving China and other allies such as Syria and India. The drills are due to last a week. On Monday Mr Putin approved a new foreign-policy doctrine, which seeks to justify armed intervention into countries with Russian-speaking populations.

Pakistan’s largest lake is at risk from overflowing and devastating heavily populated areas, officials said. An attempt failed on Sunday to drain Manchar Lake, in the southeastern Sindh province, where heavy rain has fallen for days. The province produces around half of Pakistan’s food, much of which has already been ruined. At least half a million people have lost their homes in catastrophic flooding across the country.

Fact of the day: 60%, the proportion of British Conservative Party voters who agree that the country is “in decline”. Read the full article.


Challenges for Britain’s new prime minister

PHOTO: PA
On Tuesday Liz Truss will fly to Balmoral Castle in Scotland, where Queen Elizabeth II will invite her to form a new British government. The meeting was secured by the 57.4% of Conservative Party members who picked the current foreign secretary as party leader over her rival, Rishi Sunak.

That was enough to give Ms Truss the job she craved. But her majority was not as impressive as polling had suggested. She also did worse than her immediate predecessors. Boris Johnson secured 66% of members’ votes in 2019. In 2005 David Cameron scooped 68%.

In an earlier round Ms Truss was backed by just 32% of Tory MPs. Behind Mr Sunak, hers was the lowest share of support of any candidate who has gone on to win since the current rules were introduced in 1998. A weak internal mandate is ominous. Ms Truss will need to lead her increasingly rebellious party through an energy crisis afflicting all of Europe. Recent Tory leaders have had short tenures. Ms Truss will have to work hard to secure her standing among her colleagues.

Painful reminders for Germany and Israel

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, addressed the German Bundestag on Tuesday. His speech marked the climax of a visit to mark the 50th anniversary of the massacre of 11 Israeli athletes and coaches by Palestinian terrorists at the Munich Olympics in 1972.

The run-up to the anniversary was tense. In July victims’ families rejected a German compensation offer and said they would not attend a commemoration ceremony on Monday. After a last-minute deal, including an official apology for security lapses and payments to families, that decision was reversed. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s president, called it “shameful” that it had taken 50 years to reach a settlement.

Later Mr Herzog will travel to the site of the Bergen-Belsen Nazi concentration camp. As a soldier in the British army his father, Chaim Herzog, helped to liberate the camp in 1945. The elder Herzog later became the sixth president of Israel. The symbolism of the 11th president’s trip, both personal and political, is clear.

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Rainbow stagnation

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
South Africa ought to be the industrial engine of its continent. Yet its economic performance has been disappointing for a decade and a half. Though incomes grew for most people after the end of white rule in 1994, over the past ten years only the top 5% have gained in real terms. That has exacerbated already grotesque inequality.

So when the country gets its latest GDP figures on Tuesday, for the second quarter of this year, forgive South Africans for greeting them with a shrug. The data are expected to show a continuing slow rebound from an awful two years of the pandemic. But because firms have been hindered by record blackouts, due to the dysfunctional state power company, there will not be a huge surge in activity. That is what would be required to put a dent in an unemployment rate of 34%, the highest known rate in the world.

The end of Australia’s housing boom

PHOTO: ALAMY
Housing booms in many overheated markets are ending as policymakers raise interest rates to curb inflation. Australia’s market, one of the frothiest, is weathering its sharpest downturn in almost 40 years. Prices nationally have fallen by 3.4% since the central bank started tightening monetary policy in May, according to CoreLogic, a property-data firm. In Sydney house prices are shedding almost A$1,000 ($680) a day.

That may be only the start. Annual consumer-price inflation is at 6.1%. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank increased interest rates for the fifth consecutive month, by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.35%. Economists reckon that house prices could slump by up to 20% from their peaks. Since some Australian households are among the world’s most indebted, that will hurt. Yet a recession is not yet looming. And even if house prices fell by a fifth, they would still be higher than they were before the pandemic.


The story of Stewart Brand

PHOTO: AP
The Whole Earth Catalog, first published in 1968, was an eclectic compendium of tools to help its readers live more sustainable lives. A documentary, released on streaming platforms on Tuesday, about its editor, Stewart Brand, takes its name from the opening sentence of the Catalog: “We are as gods and might as well get good at it.”

Environmentalists loved the Catalog. But its most enduring impact was in Silicon Valley, where its techno-utopian philosophy took hold. Mr Brand mingled with early computer pioneers, and helped develop the open-source philosophy critical to modern software. Steve Jobs, the late boss of Apple, referred to the periodical as “one of the bibles of my generation.”

“We Are As Gods” chronicles one of Mr Brand’s more recent projects: using genetic engineering to bring back the woolly mammoth from extinction. To his critics this is hubristic meddling. But with his deep faith in technology, to Mr Brand it is just a new form of conservation.

Daily quiz

Our baristas will serve you a new question each day this week. On Friday your challenge is to give us all five answers and, as important, tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Tuesday: What term is used to describe a gambling strategy where the stakes are doubled till a win is achieved?

Monday: Which term is used for the set of cards received by a player in poker or bridge?

Learning music by reading about it is like making love by mail.

Luciano Pavarotti
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