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2022.08.25 怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会

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发表于 2022-8-26 04:52:07 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase Russia’s armed forces by 137,000 combat personnel to 1.15m. It comes into effect on January 1st. Perhaps 15,000 Russians have been killed and 45,000 wounded after six months of war in Ukraine; the war will now depend, in part, on which army can replenish faster. Elsewhere America and the European Union condemned a Russian missile strike on a railway station in eastern Ukraine on Wednesday that killed at least 25 people, including two children. Russia’s defence ministry confirmed the strike, but claimed to have hit a military train.

President Joe Biden announced a plan for significant student-debt relief, under which up to $10,000 in student loans will be forgiven for each debtor who earns less than $125,000 a year. The relief will go up to $20,000 for those who received federal aid during their education. Many economists fret that debt cancellation can aggravate inflation. But the announcement may come as a political boon for Democrats ahead of November’s mid-term elections.

Marsha Blackburn, an American senator, arrived in Taiwan, marking the third visit by a Washington official this month. Following an earlier visit by Nancy Pelosi, one of America’s most senior legislators, China staged its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan. In response, the Taiwanese government proposed to spend more than $19bn on defence next year, a 15% increase on the current budget.

Peloton, an American exercise equipment and media company, reported an operating loss of $1.2bn in its fourth quarter as the sale of its home fitness kit flagged. The company’s revenue fell by 28% to $678.7m in the fourth quarter, below analysts’ expectations of $718m. On Wednesday Peloton announced it would sell its products on Amazon to boost sales in America.

China announced an additional 300bn yuan ($44bn) for policy banks to lend to infrastructure, to help counter an alarming economic slowdown. The money comes on top of a similar amount announced in June. China’s cabinet also confirmed that local governments could issue an extra 500bn yuan of “special” bonds, to be repaid with the help of revenues earned from the projects they finance.

Amazon said it would shut the virtual health service it offers to its employees, bringing to an end—for now at least—an attempt to upend America’s health-care market. The e-retailer said that Amazon Care was not extensive enough to offer to other companies. Staff have round-the-clock video access to doctors and nurses, and also to a few physical sites in order to receive vaccinations, testing and the like.

Fighting erupted in northern Ethiopia between rebels from the Tigray region and central government forces, ending a five-month long ceasefire and dampening hopes for peace talks in the country’s ongoing civil war. The conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which controls the region, and prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has killed thousands and displaced millions since it began in 2020.

Fact of the day: $15bn, the value of direct investment foreigners pulled out of Russia in the first quarter of 2022, easily the worst figure on record. Read the full story.


Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago headache

PHOTO: REUTERS
Donald Trump decried the FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago home on August 8th as an unjustified political assault. The bureau has so far been tight-lipped on its motivations. But its rationale for the seizure of classified records from Mr Trump’s Palm Beach estate will soon be divulged. A judge in Florida, Bruce Reinhart, has ruled that the Justice Department must unseal a redacted version of its affidavit that enabled the search by Friday at noon.

Mr Trump has demanded the unsealing of the full document. But his lawyers filed no such motion in court. Government officials warn that releasing the unredacted affidavit could sabotage their probe into the former president’s handling of government records. Last week Mr Reinhart gave the Justice Department seven days to redact it to their liking, signalling that at least part of the document might see the light of day. But negotiations between the court and the government about exactly what to publish could yet postpone the unveiling.

Misery by design in Myanmar

PHOTO: REUTERS
Five years ago the Burmese army forced nearly 750,000 Rohingyas to leave Myanmar amid intense violence. The UN branded the army’s campaign of mass killing, rape and arson a genocide, but no punishments followed. Most of the expelled Rohingyas are now languishing in Bangladesh in the world’s biggest refugee camp. On Thursday human rights groups will mark “Rohingya Remembrance Day”.

But around 600,000 remain in Myanmar. Many are confined to what Fortify Rights, an American pressure group based in South-East Asia, calls “modern concentration camps”. Conditions are squalid, structures unsound and access to health care scant. Their plight has become ever more dire since the army toppled the government of Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader, last year. They are denied access to education and paid work. The military junta has blocked international-aid agencies from visiting Rohingya camps and villages. No matter which side of the border Rohingyas find themselves on, their experience is comparable: hunger and misery surrounded by barbed wire.

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Moving markets in Wyoming

PHOTO: DAVE SIMONDS
In the shadow of the majestic Teton mountain range, just over 100 central bankers and economists from around the world are gathering at a lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Their idyllic retreat, which starts on Thursday, is not all late-summer’s calm: the comments of attendees can shake global markets. The main event at the three-day economic symposium will be a speech by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Friday.

After softer inflation data in America last month, many investors thought the Fed might relax its hawkish stance. They piled back into stocks, fuelling a month-long rally. Mr Powell has a chance to recalibrate expectations with his speech. He may choose to signal that the Fed’s campaign to crush inflation is far from over. That possibility has already rattled markets, with leading indices taking a tumble this week. The descent from high inflation looks a little like the jagged path down the Teton peaks.


France seeks to befriend Algeria

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Sixty years ago Algeria won independence from France after a bloody eight-year war. This painful history renders the link between the two countries complicated even today. So a three-day visit of Emmanuel Macron to the north African country, which began on Thursday, has been optimistically billed as one of “friendship”. France’s president wants to use his first foray to Algeria in five years to forge closer links between businesses, startups and artists.

But first Mr Macron hopes to “soothe memories”, after decades marked by mutual suspicion and accusations. Relations soured last year when Mr Macron reportedly questioned Algeria’s pre-colonial existence as a nation. But he has taken steps to acknowledge France’s role in certain historical atrocities, and set up a “memories and truth” commission on his country’s historical role in Algeria. Now there are new questions, including how to source more natural gas from resource-rich Algeria, and how to ease recently tightened rules for Algerians to obtain French visas.

Australia prepares to try an alleged Chinese agent

PHOTO: PA IMAGES
In 2018 Australia infuriated China by rushing through sweeping laws to prevent foreign meddling in its democracy. On Thursday, the only man so far to be accused of breaching them appeared before a court in Victoria. In 2020 Di Sanh Duong, a 67-year-old Australian of Chinese heritage, made a A$37,000 ($25,500) donation to a hospital in Melbourne. Prosecutors allege that he was seeking to gain favour with Alan Tudge, an up-and-coming federal minister whom he invited for the handing over of the cheque, on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party. Mr Duong’s lawyer says the donation was a bid to improve the public image of Chinese people in Australia.

On trial is not only Mr Duong but the new laws themselves. Mr Duong is accused of “preparing for” or “planning” interference. The prosecution has used evidence of his links to the Chinese government to build its case. But criminalising contacts and intent, rather than action, is a troubling idea for many lawyers.

Daily quiz

Quiz: Our baristas will serve you a new question each day this week. On Friday your challenge is to give us all five answers and, as important, tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Thursday: Which 1877 novel by Anna Sewell is considered a classic of children’s literature?

Wednesday: Who was the British foreign secretary during the invasion of Iraq in 2003?

No matter what accomplishments you make, somebody helped you.

Althea Gibson



弗拉基米尔-普京总统签署了一项法令,将俄罗斯的武装部队增加13.7万名战斗人员,达到115万人。它于1月1日生效。经过六个月的乌克兰战争,也许有15000名俄罗斯人被杀,45000人受伤;现在战争将部分取决于哪支军队能够更快地补充兵员。在其他地方,美国和欧盟谴责俄罗斯周三对乌克兰东部一个火车站的导弹袭击,造成至少25人死亡,包括两名儿童。俄罗斯国防部证实了这次袭击,但声称袭击的是一列军用列车。

美国总统乔-拜登宣布了一项重大学生债务减免计划,根据该计划,年收入低于125,000美元的每个债务人将被免除最多10,000美元的学生贷款。对于那些在教育期间接受联邦援助的人来说,减免额度将高达20,000美元。许多经济学家担心,取消债务会加剧通货膨胀。但是,在11月的中期选举之前,这一宣布可能会成为民主党人的一个政治利好。

美国参议员玛莎-布莱克本抵达台湾,这是本月华盛顿官员的第三次访问。继美国最资深的立法者之一南希-佩洛西早些时候的访问之后,中国在台湾周围举行了有史以来最大规模的军事演习。作为回应,台湾政府提议明年的国防开支超过190亿美元,比目前的预算增加15%。

美国运动设备和媒体公司Peloton第四季度报告了12亿美元的运营亏损,因为其家用健身套件的销售出现了问题。该公司第四季度的收入下降了28%,至6.787亿美元,低于分析师预期的7.18亿美元。周三,Peloton宣布它将在亚马逊上销售其产品,以促进在美国的销售。

中国宣布为政策性银行提供额外的3000亿元人民币(440亿美元)贷款给基础设施,以帮助应对惊人的经济放缓。这笔钱是在6月宣布的类似金额之上的。中国内阁还确认,地方政府可以额外发行5,000亿元的 "特别 "债券,用他们资助的项目所获得的收入来偿还。

亚马逊表示,它将关闭为其员工提供的虚拟医疗服务,至少现在结束了颠覆美国医疗市场的尝试。这家电子零售商说,Amazon Care的范围不够大,不能提供给其他公司。员工可以通过视频24小时接触医生和护士,也可以到一些实体场所接受疫苗接种、测试等。

在埃塞俄比亚北部,提格雷地区的叛军和中央政府部队之间爆发了战斗,结束了长达五个月的停火,并抑制了该国正在进行的内战的和平谈判的希望。控制该地区的提格雷人民解放阵线与总理阿比-艾哈迈德的政府之间的冲突自2020年开始以来已造成数千人死亡,数百万人流离失所。

今日要闻:150亿美元,2022年第一季度外国人从俄罗斯撤出的直接投资价值,很容易成为有记录以来最糟糕的数字。阅读完整的故事。


唐纳德-特朗普的马拉戈头痛问题

照片。REUTERS
唐纳德-特朗普谴责联邦调查局8月8日对他的马拉戈住宅进行的突袭,认为这是毫无道理的政治攻击。到目前为止,该局对其动机一直守口如瓶。但是,它从特朗普先生的棕榈滩房产中扣押机密记录的理由很快就会被披露出来。佛罗里达州的一名法官布鲁斯-莱因哈特(Bruce Reinhart)裁定,司法部必须在周五中午前公开其启用搜查的宣誓书的编辑版本。

特朗普先生要求公开完整的文件。但他的律师没有在法庭上提出这样的动议。政府官员警告说,公布未经编辑的宣誓书可能会破坏他们对前总统处理政府记录的调查。上周,莱因哈特先生给了司法部七天时间,让他们按照自己的意愿进行编辑,这表明至少该文件的一部分可能会出现在阳光下。但是,法院和政府之间关于具体公布内容的谈判可能会推迟揭晓。

缅甸设计的苦难

照片。REUTERS
五年前,缅甸军队在激烈的暴力中迫使近75万罗兴亚人离开缅甸。联合国将军队的大规模杀戮、强奸和纵火行动称为种族灭绝,但随后没有任何惩罚措施。大多数被驱逐的罗兴亚人现在在孟加拉国的世界最大的难民营中受苦。本周四,人权团体将纪念 "罗兴亚人纪念日"。

但仍有约60万人留在缅甸。许多人被限制在设在东南亚的美国压力集团Fortify Rights称为 "现代集中营 "的地方。条件很差,结构不健全,获得的医疗服务很少。自从去年军队推翻了事实上的领导人昂山素季的政府后,他们的困境变得更加严峻。他们被剥夺了接受教育和有偿工作的机会。军政府阻止国际援助机构访问罗兴亚人的营地和村庄。无论罗兴亚人在边境的哪一边,他们的经历都是相似的:被铁丝网包围的饥饿和苦难。

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怀俄明州的移动市场

照片。DAVE SIMONDS
在雄伟的泰顿山脉的阴影下,来自世界各地的100多名中央银行家和经济学家正在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的一个小屋聚会。他们的田园静修会将于周四开始,但并不全是夏末的平静:与会者的评论可能会撼动全球市场。为期三天的经济研讨会的主要活动是美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔周五的讲话。

在美国上个月的通胀数据疲软之后,许多投资者认为美联储可能会放松其鹰派立场。他们重新涌入股票,推动了长达一个月的涨势。鲍威尔先生有机会通过他的演讲重新调整预期。他可能会选择发出信号,表明美联储压制通胀的行动远未结束。这种可能性已经让市场感到不安,本周主要指数出现了下跌。从高通胀率下降的过程看起来有点像泰顿山峰的锯齿状路径。


法国寻求与阿尔及利亚交好

照片。GETTY IMAGES
60年前,阿尔及利亚经过八年的血腥战争,从法国赢得了独立。这段痛苦的历史使两国之间的联系即使在今天也很复杂。因此,埃马纽埃尔-马克龙对这个北非国家为期三天的访问于周四开始,被乐观地称为 "友谊 "之行。法国总统希望利用他五年来对阿尔及利亚的首次访问,在企业、初创企业和艺术家之间建立更紧密的联系。

但首先,马克龙先生希望在几十年的相互猜疑和指责之后,"抚平记忆"。去年,当马克龙先生据说质疑阿尔及利亚作为一个国家的殖民前存在时,双方关系出现了恶化。但他已采取措施,承认法国在某些历史暴行中的作用,并就法国在阿尔及利亚的历史作用成立了一个 "回忆与真相 "委员会。现在有了新的问题,包括如何从资源丰富的阿尔及利亚获取更多的天然气,以及如何放松最近收紧的阿尔及利亚人获得法国签证的规定。

澳大利亚准备审判一名被指控的中国特工

照片。PA IMAGES
2018年,澳大利亚急于通过全面的法律来防止外国干涉其民主,从而激怒了中国。周四,迄今为止唯一被指控违反这些法律的人出现在维多利亚州的法庭上。2020年,67岁的澳大利亚华裔Di Sanh Duong向墨尔本的一家医院捐赠了37,000澳元(25,500美元)。检察官指称,他代表中国共产党寻求获得新晋联邦部长Alan Tudge的青睐,他邀请Alan Tudge参加了支票的交接仪式。Duong先生的律师说,这笔捐款是为了改善中国人在澳大利亚的公众形象。

受审的不仅是Duong先生,还有新法律本身。Duong先生被指控 "准备 "或 "计划 "干扰。检方利用他与中国政府的联系的证据来建立其案件。但是,将接触和意图而不是行动定为犯罪,对许多律师来说是一个令人不安的想法。

每日小测验

测验。本周,我们的咖啡师将每天为您提供一个新问题。在周五,你的挑战是给我们所有的五个答案,并且,同样重要的是,告诉我们连接的主题。在北京时间周五17点前,将你的回答(包括提及你的家乡和国家)发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将在周六从有正确答案的人中随机挑选,并在每个大洲选出一名获胜者。

星期四。安娜-苏威尔在1877年创作的哪部小说被认为是儿童文学的经典?

星期三。2003年入侵伊拉克期间,谁是英国外交大臣?

无论你取得什么成就,都有人帮助你。

阿尔西娅-吉布森
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