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2022.08.14 巴基斯坦总理谈他对国家现代化的推动

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发表于 2022-8-14 20:22:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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My Economist
By Invitation | The 75th anniversary of Pakistan’s independence
Pakistan’s prime minister on his drive to modernise the country
A challenging moment offers an opportunity, says Shehbaz Sharif

Aug 14th 2022

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​​In the 1960s, when Pakistan was in its adolescence, the country brimmed with hope and promise. We had a date with destiny. The nation was widely thought ready to become the next Asian tiger. In 2022, however, Pakistan finds itself mired in its latest economic crisis.

This one is born out of the most challenging global policy environment of our lifetime, characterised by a commodity supercycle, historic monetary tightening at America’s Federal Reserve and a conflict in Europe that is tearing apart the post-war global order. But it also stems from home-grown weaknesses: weaknesses that have been left unaddressed for the better part of five decades; weaknesses that have forced us to approach the imf multiple times during that time. This is not how successful nations are built.


Although there are many, three critical structural flaws stand out. These have prevented economic take-off, stunted our growth and led to repeated boom-bust cycles since the late 1980s.

First, our political environment has become increasingly polarised. Instead of debating how to run Pakistan better and rid the country of poverty, political parties have been at each other’s throats. Second, we have not invested enough in the nuts and bolts of development: education, health and infrastructure. This is in part due to an abysmally low tax take, but it also reflects our priorities in public spending, some of which can be attributed to the complicated neighbourhood we live in, including a long-standing adversarial relationship with India, the Russian and then the American invasion of Afghanistan and the influx of millions of refugees into Pakistan.

Third, we have turned inwards in a way that has prevented us from reaping the benefits of globalisation through the free exchange of people, goods, capital and ideas. Our ability to make―and keep―friends on the international stage has significantly weakened over time. Today, we hardly make anything that the world wants and our companies remain very comfortable only operating within our borders, often protected by barriers to competition. Pakistan today is one of the most consumption-oriented economies in the world, with consumption accounting for more than 90% of our gdp. By contrast, we only invest 15% of our output and export just 10%. Annual inflows of foreign direct investment are less than 1% of gdp. These sorry statistics are a reflection of the flaws in our economic model. No successful country has ever grown this way.

As Pakistan turns 75, it is a moment that merits serious introspection. The fifth-largest country in the world, where two out of every three people are below the age of 30 and full of aspirations, finds itself stuck with an income level of just $1,798. Every third person lives on less than $3.20 a day. And less than a quarter of our women work outside the home; more than a third of our people can neither read nor write.


Our immediate priority is to safely navigate through our current economic crisis. We are not alone in this. The whole world faces a difficult year. But we have the protection of an imf programme to see us through. While some measures will create hardship and require sacrifice, we are committed to implementing the programme. This is our path to safety.

This challenging moment also offers us an opportunity. If we can get a core set of things right, there is no reason why we cannot turn our fortunes around. What will it take? A consensus on the direction Pakistan must take. There will always be political differences in a democracy like ours. But there must be agreements on a few principles: managing our finances prudently, investing in our people, encouraging merit and innovation, and promoting regional peace. This is within our grasp. With the highest rate of urbanisation in South Asia according to the un Population Division, 60m new people joining the middle class over the next decade according to the World Data Lab and four out of five Pakistanis digitally connected through a mobile phone, we have a very compelling story to tell foreign investors.

At the same time, it is important to modernise Pakistan’s social contract. People must pay their fair share of taxes in return for vital public services. We must do better by our youth and our women, and enable them to fulfil their aspirations and become drivers of our economic growth. We must have a clearer sense of what values our nation must espouse―including tolerance, hard work, meritocracy and social justice—and the place we want Pakistan to occupy globally as a responsible and modern nation. With the world facing a major existential threat in the form of climate change, it is a time for coming together. We must revive and strengthen our relationships with old friends on the international stage, and focus equally on making friends out of adversaries.

No nation is destined to rise or fall for ever. During my time as the chief minister of Pakistan’s most populous province, I witnessed first-hand how encouraging talent and new ideas, planning on the basis of data and evidence, and close monitoring of execution can quickly lead to lasting improvements in people’s lives. For instance, partnering with Britain’s Department for International Development we were able to monitor and thus improve teacher and student attendance by over 35% in schools across Punjab. And using computer models, we were able to predict and stop the spread of dengue fever.

The rapidity of these achievements was affectionately dubbed by outsiders as “Punjab speed”, at a time when the rest of Pakistan remained stuck in low gear. With a similar orientation, there is no reason why the whole country cannot march forward at “Pakistan speed” during the next generation. With unity and discipline, Pakistan at 100 promises to be a vastly different country.■

Shehbaz Sharif is Pakistan’s prime minister.




应邀参加|巴基斯坦独立75周年纪念活动
巴基斯坦总理谈他对国家现代化的推动
谢巴兹-谢里夫说,一个具有挑战性的时刻提供了一个机会

2022年8月14日



在20世纪60年代,当巴基斯坦处于青春期时,这个国家充满了希望和承诺。我们与命运有一个约会。人们普遍认为这个国家已经准备好成为下一个亚洲之虎。然而,在2022年,巴基斯坦发现自己陷入了最新的经济危机。

这场危机产生于我们一生中最具挑战性的全球政策环境,其特点是商品超级周期、美国联邦储备局历史性的货币紧缩和欧洲的冲突正在撕裂战后的全球秩序。但它也源于本土的弱点:这些弱点在五十年的大部分时间里都没有得到解决;这些弱点迫使我们在这段时间里多次向国际货币基金组织求助。成功的国家不是这样建立的。


虽然有很多,但有三个关键的结构性缺陷很突出。这些缺陷阻碍了经济起飞,阻碍了我们的增长,并导致了自20世纪80年代末以来反复出现的繁荣-萧条周期。

首先,我们的政治环境已经变得越来越两极化。各个政党不是在辩论如何更好地管理巴基斯坦并使国家摆脱贫困,而是在互相掐架。第二,我们对发展的核心部分投资不足:教育、卫生和基础设施。这部分是由于税收低得可怜,但它也反映了我们在公共开支方面的优先次序,其中一些可归因于我们所处的复杂的周边环境,包括与印度的长期敌对关系,俄罗斯和美国对阿富汗的入侵,以及数百万难民涌入巴基斯坦。

第三,我们向内转的方式使我们无法通过人员、货物、资本和思想的自由交流获得全球化的好处。随着时间的推移,我们在国际舞台上结交和保持朋友的能力已经大大减弱了。今天,我们几乎不生产世界需要的任何东西,我们的公司仍然非常舒适地只在我们的边界内运作,往往受到竞争壁垒的保护。今天的巴基斯坦是世界上最注重消费的经济体之一,消费占我们GDP的90%以上。相比之下,我们的投资只占我们产出的15%,出口只占10%。每年流入的外国直接投资还不到GDP的1%。这些令人遗憾的数据反映了我们经济模式的缺陷。没有一个成功的国家是这样发展的。

在巴基斯坦75岁之际,这是一个值得认真反省的时刻。这个世界第五大国家,每三个人中就有两个年龄在30岁以下,并且充满抱负,却发现自己的收入水平仅有1798美元。每三个人中有一个人每天的生活费不到3.20美元。而我们的妇女只有不到四分之一的人在外面工作;我们有三分之一以上的人既不会读也不会写。


我们的当务之急是安全地度过我们目前的经济危机。在这方面,我们并不孤单。整个世界都面临着困难的一年。但我们有IMF计划的保护,可以帮助我们度过难关。虽然有些措施会造成困难,需要作出牺牲,但我们致力于实施该方案。这是我们通往安全的道路。

这个具有挑战性的时刻也为我们提供了一个机会。如果我们能把一套核心的东西做好,我们没有理由不扭转我们的命运。这将需要什么?对巴基斯坦必须采取的方向达成共识。在我们这样的民主国家,总是会有政治分歧。但必须在几个原则上达成一致:审慎地管理我们的财政,投资于我们的人民,鼓励功绩和创新,以及促进地区和平。这些都是我们可以掌握的。根据联合国人口司的数据,巴基斯坦是南亚地区城市化率最高的国家,根据世界数据实验室的数据,未来十年将有6000万新的人口加入中产阶级,每五个巴基斯坦人中就有四个通过移动电话进行数字连接,我们有一个非常引人注目的故事可以告诉外国投资者。

同时,使巴基斯坦的社会契约现代化也很重要。人们必须支付他们公平的税收,以换取重要的公共服务。我们必须为我们的青年和妇女做得更好,使他们能够实现他们的愿望,成为我们经济增长的驱动力。我们必须更清楚地认识到我们的国家必须信奉的价值观--包括宽容、努力工作、任人唯贤和社会正义--以及我们希望巴基斯坦作为一个负责任的现代国家在全球占据的地位。随着世界面临着以气候变化为形式的重大生存威胁,现在是一个团结起来的时刻。我们必须恢复和加强我们与国际舞台上的老朋友的关系,并同样注重从对手那里交朋友。

没有哪个国家是注定永远兴衰的。在我担任巴基斯坦人口最多的省份的首席部长期间,我亲眼目睹了鼓励人才和新想法、在数据和证据的基础上进行规划以及密切监测执行情况如何能够迅速导致人民生活的持久改善。例如,与英国国际发展部合作,我们能够监测并因此将旁遮普省各地学校的教师和学生出勤率提高35%以上。利用计算机模型,我们能够预测并阻止登革热的传播。

这些成就的速度被外界亲切地称为 "旁遮普速度",而当时巴基斯坦的其他地区仍然停留在低档。有了类似的方向,没有理由整个国家在下一代不能以 "巴基斯坦速度 "前进。有了团结和纪律,100岁的巴基斯坦有望成为一个截然不同的国家。

谢巴兹-谢里夫是巴基斯坦的总理。
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