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2022.06.16 美国联邦储备委员会将利率提高了四分之三个百...

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发表于 2022-6-16 19:16:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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America’s Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest rise since 1994. Its target rate is now between 1.5% and 1.75%—and it expects it will rise to at least 3% this year. The Fed took action after disappointing data on inflation. In response, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% after five days of losses on Wednesday, but looked set to reverse those gains in early trading on Thursday as investors worried about a potential recession.

The leaders of France, Germany and Italy arrived in Kyiv in a show of support for Ukraine. It is the first time any of them have visited the capital since Russia’s invasion began. Ukraine once again asked the West for more weapons; America has promised another $1bn in military aid. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to attack Severodonetsk as it seeks to capture the entire Donbas region.

The European Central Bank said it would speed up work on a new tool to tackle fragmentation in the euro zone, the phenomenon in which bond yields in some countries rise much higher than in others. The announcement came at an unscheduled meeting on Wednesday to “discuss current market conditions”, after yields for Italian and Spanish bonds reached their highest level in years. News of the new tool helped calm the trading.

Police in Brazil extracted a confession from a man arrested in connection with the disappearance of two men in the Amazon’s Javari valley on June 5th: Dom Phillips, a British journalist; and Bruno Pereira, an expert on the region’s “uncontacted” peoples. The suspect admitted to shooting and killing them both, having clashed with Mr Pereira over the locals’ fishing rights.

The European Union resurrected legal proceedings against Britain over plans to override the Northern Ireland protocol, part of the Brexit deal agreed in 2020. Britain’s government plans to give ministers the power to rewrite parts of the protocol, which keeps Northern Ireland in the single market and creates a border with the rest of the United Kingdom; the EU says the unilateral breach of an international treaty is illegal.

Advisers to America’s Food and Drug Administration recommended that it approve covid-19 vaccines for babies and young children. The committee found both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines to be safe and effective for infants aged between six months and four years old. The FDA is likely to accept the recommendation. The White House said vaccinations could start as early as Tuesday.

A synagogue in Florida is suing the state over a new law banning abortions after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy, arguing that it violates religious freedoms guaranteed by Florida’s constitution. Jewish law requires abortion if deemed necessary to protect a mother’s physical or mental health. Florida’s law, which goes into effect in July, does not allow exemptions for rape or incest.

Fact of the day: 100, the number of countries that back China’s Global Development Initiative. Read the full story.


Russia’s resilient economy

PHOTO: AFP
Most commentators expected Russia’s economy to collapse in the face of unprecedented Western sanctions. Indeed, in the opening days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the rouble fell sharply, and banks looked wobbly. Since then, though, the economy has proved surprisingly resilient. GDP figures published on Thursday are expected to show that the economy grew in the first quarter of the year.

Russia can thank a series of smart interventions by its central bank. The bank raised interest rates immediately after the invasion began but quickly cut them again, stabilising the currency and thus keeping inflation from spiralling out of control. Many countries, including Western ones, have continued to buy huge quantities of Russian oil and gas, guaranteeing a steady supply of foreign currency. And Russian consumers and businesses seem to have an uncanny ability to keep going despite the country’s international pariah status. Unemployment has barely budged. Hopes that economic collapse will force Vladimir Putin to back down are likely to be dashed.


Britain’s interest rates rise, slowly

PHOTO: DAVE SIMONDS
The Bank of England meets on Thursday with inflation well above its 2% target. In April, prices rose at an annual rate of 9%. But that does not mean a large interest-rate increase is imminent. The bank’s monetary policy committee is supposed to look beyond temporary shocks and consider the wider economic environment.

Recent data suggest there is no need to panic. Employee earnings do not yet point to a wage-price spiral. In the three months to April, pay excluding bonuses fell by 2.2%, after adjusting for inflation. If anything Britain’s slow economy is more of a worry. In April GDP fell by 0.3% relative to the month before, with manufacturing hurt by soaring costs and supply-chain disruption. Increasing rates too quickly could depress growth and medium-term inflation too much. So although some at the bank may push for an increase in the official interest rate of 0.5 percentage points, most expect it to raise interest rates by just half that.

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The great uprooting

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Over 100m people have been forced from their homes by war and persecution, the first time that figure has hit the grim milestone. The number is just one of many depressing figures from the UN refugee agency’s Global Trends report, which was published on Thursday. The report shows that the number of displaced people worldwide has risen in each of the past ten years, reaching 89.3m by the end of 2021—more than double the figure in 2001. Since last year things have worsened further, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as fallout from the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and civil war in Ethiopia.

Before Russia’s invasion, most refugees came from Syria, Venezuela and Afghanistan. Those that fled abroad tended to go to low- and middle-income countries: Turkey, Uganda and Pakistan hosted the world’s biggest refugee populations. But many more people are internally displaced: 53.2m worldwide. That is true of Ukrainians, too. Some 4.9m Ukrainians are registered as refugees in other European countries, but more than 8m are displaced within their own country.

Tunisians go on strike

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
It is a rare summer holiday that no one wants. Tunisia’s main public union, the UGTT, called a one-day strike on Thursday. With 1m members, it brought the country to a standstill. All flights have been cancelled and public transport is not running. The union is angry about rising inflation, which hit 7.5% in April, as well as government talks with the IMF about a $4bn loan that may require subsidy cuts, wage freezes and other painful measures.

Always a fractious union, the UGTT has never met an economic-reform plan it likes. But while Tunisia’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 88% means it does need external help, the union is right to worry about what an IMF deal might mean for its struggling members. Kais Saied, the country’s increasingly authoritarian president, has spent little time on economic policy since his election in 2019. Instead he is busy writing a new constitution ahead of a referendum few Tunisians care about. He will probably be at the office on Thursday, even if no one else is.


An exhibition of broken objects

PHOTO: COURTESY OF SOMERSET HOUSE
During the pandemic Ellen Sampson, a British artist and curator, reassessed her relationships with the objects around her. “We brought them into the world, so we need to look after them,” she says. The idea inspired her to curate “Eternally Yours”, an exhibition about repair and healing that opens on Thursday at Somerset House in London.

The most striking works are by Aya Haidar, who fled Lebanon in 1982. In “Soleless” she embroiders the tattered shoes of refugees with depictions of their experiences. One is a record of a Syrian mother whose three-month-old baby was thrown off a dinghy by a human trafficker because he wouldn’t stop crying. “I couldn’t return function to those shoes”, writes Ms Haidar. “But I could tell their story.”

John Ruskin, a British art critic, wrote that the traces of damage on a building—“the golden stain of time”—could imbue them with grandeur. As “Eternally Yours” shows, the same can be true of objects.

Daily quiz

Our baristas will serve you a new question each day this week. On Friday your challenge is to give us all five answers and, as important, tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Thursday: Which jazz musician appeared in the films “High Society” and “Hello Dolly”?

Wednesday: Which rock star wrote books such as “In His Own Write” and “A Spaniard in the Works”?

Hatred and anger are the greatest poison to the happiness of a good mind.

Adam Smith



美国联邦储备委员会将利率提高了四分之三个百分点,这是自1994年以来的最大涨幅。其目标利率现在在1.5%和1.75%之间--它预计今年将至少上升到3%。美联储是在令人失望的通胀数据之后采取的行动。作为回应,标准普尔500指数在周三连续五天下跌后上涨了1.5%,但由于投资者担心潜在的经济衰退,周四早盘似乎将逆转这些涨幅。

法国、德国和意大利的领导人抵达基辅,以示对乌克兰的支持。这是自俄罗斯开始入侵以来,他们中的任何人第一次访问首都。乌克兰再次要求西方提供更多的武器;美国已经承诺再提供10亿美元的军事援助。与此同时,俄罗斯军队继续攻击塞维罗涅茨克,因为它试图占领整个顿巴斯地区。

欧洲央行表示,它将加快新工具的工作,以解决欧元区的碎片化问题,即一些国家的债券收益率比其他国家高很多的现象。在意大利和西班牙债券收益率达到多年来的最高水平后,欧洲央行在周三的一次不定期会议上宣布了这一消息,以 "讨论当前的市场状况"。有关新工具的消息有助于平息交易。

巴西警方从一名因6月5日两名男子在亚马逊的Javari山谷失踪而被捕的男子那里提取了供词。他们是英国记者Dom Phillips和该地区 "未接触 "民族的专家Bruno Pereira。嫌疑人承认在与佩雷拉先生就当地人的捕鱼权发生冲突后,射杀了他们两人。

欧盟重新启动了针对英国的法律程序,计划推翻2020年达成的脱欧协议中的北爱尔兰议定书。英国政府计划赋予部长们改写议定书部分内容的权力,该议定书将北爱尔兰保留在单一市场中,并与英国其他地区建立了边界;欧盟表示,单方面违反国际条约是非法的。

美国食品和药物管理局的顾问建议其批准婴儿和幼儿的covid-19疫苗。该委员会认为Moderna和辉瑞公司的疫苗对6个月至4岁的婴儿都是安全和有效的。美国食品和药物管理局很可能会接受这一建议。白宫表示,疫苗接种最早可于周二开始。

佛罗里达州的一个犹太教会堂正就一项禁止怀孕15周后堕胎的新法律起诉该州,认为该法律违反了佛罗里达州宪法所保障的宗教自由。犹太法律规定,如果认为有必要保护母亲的身体或精神健康,就必须进行堕胎。佛罗里达州的法律于7月生效,不允许对强奸或乱伦进行豁免。

今天的事实。100,支持中国全球发展倡议的国家数量。阅读全文。


俄罗斯有弹性的经济

照片。法新社
大多数评论家预计,面对西方前所未有的制裁,俄罗斯的经济将崩溃。的确,在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的最初几天,卢布急剧下跌,银行也显得摇摇欲坠。不过,从那时起,经济已被证明具有令人惊讶的弹性。周四公布的GDP数据预计将显示,今年第一季度经济有所增长。

俄罗斯可以感谢其中央银行的一系列明智的干预措施。入侵开始后,该银行立即提高了利率,但很快又降低了利率,稳定了货币,从而使通货膨胀不至于失去控制。许多国家,包括西方国家,继续购买大量的俄罗斯石油和天然气,保证了外汇的稳定供应。而俄罗斯的消费者和企业似乎有一种不可思议的能力,尽管该国处于国际贱民的地位,但仍能坚持下去。失业率几乎没有变化。经济崩溃将迫使弗拉基米尔-普京退让的希望可能会破灭。


英国的利率缓慢上升

照片。DAVE SIMONDS
英国央行周四开会,通胀率远高于2%的目标。4月份,物价的年增长率为9%。但这并不意味着大规模加息迫在眉睫。该银行的货币政策委员会应该超越暂时的冲击,考虑更广泛的经济环境。

最近的数据表明,没有必要恐慌。雇员收入还没有指向工资价格螺旋。在截至4月的三个月里,扣除奖金的工资下降了2.2%,在调整了通货膨胀之后。如果说英国缓慢的经济更令人担忧的话。4月份,国内生产总值比前一个月下降了0.3%,制造业受到成本飙升和供应链中断的影响。过快地提高利率可能会抑制增长和中期通胀。因此,尽管该银行的一些人可能会推动将官方利率提高0.5个百分点,但大多数人预计它将只提高一半的利率。

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伟大的连根拔起

照片。GETTY IMAGES
超过1亿人因战争和迫害而被迫离开家园,这是这个数字首次达到严峻的里程碑。这个数字只是联合国难民机构全球趋势报告中众多令人沮丧的数字之一,该报告于周四发布。报告显示,在过去十年中,全球流离失所者的人数每年都在增加,到2021年底将达到8930万人--比2001年的数字增加一倍以上。自去年以来,情况进一步恶化,主要是因为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,以及塔利班接管阿富汗和埃塞俄比亚内战的影响。

在俄罗斯入侵之前,大多数难民来自叙利亚、委内瑞拉和阿富汗。那些逃到国外的人往往去了低收入和中等收入国家。土耳其、乌干达和巴基斯坦接纳了世界上最大的难民人口。但更多的人是在国内流离失所。全世界有5320万人。乌克兰人的情况也是如此。约490万乌克兰人在其他欧洲国家登记为难民,但有超过800万人在自己的国家内流离失所。

突尼斯人开始罢工

照片。GETTY IMAGES
这是一个难得的夏季假期,没有人愿意。突尼斯的主要公共工会UGTT在周四举行了为期一天的罢工。它拥有100万会员,使国家陷入停顿。所有航班都被取消,公共交通也不运行。工会对不断上升的通货膨胀感到愤怒,4月份的通货膨胀率达到7.5%,以及政府与国际货币基金组织就40亿美元的贷款进行谈判,可能需要削减补贴、冻结工资和其他痛苦的措施。

UGTT一直是一个分裂的工会,从未遇到过它喜欢的经济改革计划。但是,尽管突尼斯88%的债务与GDP之比意味着它确实需要外部帮助,但该联盟担心国际货币基金组织的协议可能对其挣扎的成员意味着什么是正确的。该国日益专制的总统凯斯-赛义德自2019年当选以来,几乎没有花时间在经济政策上。相反,他正忙于在一场很少有突尼斯人关心的公投之前编写一部新宪法。他周四可能会在办公室,即使其他人都不在。


破碎物品的展览

照片。萨默塞特房屋提供
在这场大流行中,英国艺术家和策展人埃伦-桑普森重新评估了她与周围物品的关系。"她说:"我们把它们带到了这个世界,所以我们需要照顾它们。这个想法激励她策划了 "永恒的你",这是一个关于修复和愈合的展览,周四在伦敦的萨默塞特宫开幕。

最引人注目的作品是Aya Haidar的作品,她于1982年逃离黎巴嫩。在 "Soleless "中,她在难民的破旧鞋子上绣上了他们的经历的描述。其中一幅记录了一位叙利亚母亲的故事,她三个月大的婴儿被人贩子从橡皮艇上扔了下来,因为他一直在哭。"海达尔女士写道:"我无法将功能还给那些鞋子。"但我可以讲述他们的故事"。

英国艺术评论家约翰-罗斯金(John Ruskin)写道,建筑物上的损坏痕迹--"时间的金色污点"--可以为它们注入宏伟的色彩。正如 "永恒的你 "所显示的,物体也可以是这样的。

每日小测验

本周,我们的咖啡师将每天为您提供一个新问题。在星期五,你的挑战是给我们所有的五个答案,同样重要的是,告诉我们连接的主题。在北京时间周五17点前,将你的回答(包括提及你的家乡和国家)发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将在周六从有正确答案的人中随机挑选,并在每个大洲选出一名获胜者。

星期四。哪位爵士乐手出现在电影《上流社会》和《Hello Dolly》中?

星期三。哪位摇滚明星写过《用他自己的方式》和《一个西班牙人在工作》等书?

仇恨和愤怒是美好心灵幸福的最大毒药。

亚当-斯密
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