[2010.09.23] 欧洲单一货币困境: 欧元傻事

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• • [2010.09.30]英国的财政紧缩政策：计划过紧

引用 lilywizardry 2010-9-26 14:52

本帖最后由 lilywizardry 于 2010-9-26 15:11 编辑

非常抱歉，之前在删除小广告时不慎将您之前的一篇文章——《[2010.06.23]Will he or won't he? 他会下台吗？》整体删除。
请求原谅
我会尝试在后台恢复，现在先根据搜索引擎的快照将被删文章存放在此处。

Will he or won't he?
他会下台吗？

Jun 23rd 2010, 11:26 by Lexington



WHAT I can't really forgive is that General MacChrystal prefers Bud to Bordeaux, though that's not a sacking offence in itself. As to which way the president is going to decide, the Uniform Code of Military Justice says that an officer who uses contemptuous words towards the president or vice-president can be punished by a court-martial. It must be sorely tempting for Mr Obama to dismiss a repeat offender who has shown ingratitude as well as disrespect. After what some said was an over-long review of Afghan strategy in the autumn of last year, Mr Obama backed General MacChrystal’s counter-insurgency ideas and gave him most of the extra troops he asked for—despite the fact that last year too the general flirted with insubordination by mocking the opposing views of Joe Biden. If Mr Obama leaves the general in his job he will humiliate the vice-president and make himself look weak just when he was trying to be assertive. How can you respect a president who bullies an unmartial foreign oil executive but cannot whip his own generals into line?

我无法原谅的是，MacChrystal将军比起波尔多葡萄酒来更喜欢百威啤酒，虽然这本身并不是值得解职的罪行。至于总统将如何裁决，统一军法典中明文表示，若官员对总统或者副总统使用侮辱性言论，军事法庭便可将其判决。对于奥巴马来说，解雇一位经常出言不逊，忘恩负义又无礼的官员肯定是一件极有诱惑力的事情。去年秋天，在有些人所谓的阿富汗战略超长审核之后，奥巴马仍支持MacChrystal将军的反叛乱建议，并且满足了其大部分增兵要求，尽管也是在去年，这位将军模仿调侃了副总统Joe Biden的反对意见。如果奥巴马继续让他留任，他会继续羞辱副总统，并且当他试图表现得信心满满时却会让自己看起来很弱。一个能对手无寸铁的国外石油业高管破口大骂却不能严格管制自己的将军的总统，人们怎么能尊敬他呢？

The problem is that sacking the general holds an equally big political danger. It will expose Mr Obama to the charge of putting the amour propre of the White House above the successful prosecution of a difficult war. It will be said, whether it is true or not, that changing the man at the top might disrupt the counter-insurgency campaign just at the beginning of the fighting season. And although plenty of generals might take his place, General MacChrystal was Mr Obama’s hand-picked replacement for General David McKiernan, the commander the new president inherited from George Bush. Not long ago, in other words, Mr Obama deemed General MacChrystal uniquely qualified to wage war in Afghanistan. Sacking him now gives the Republicans a golden opportunity to say that Mr Obama is taking petty revenge against a dedicated warrior guilty only of too much candour and a want of tact. General MacChrsytal in Afghanistan is not Douglas McArthur in Korea: he is obeying orders, not defying them.

问题是，解雇这位将军担当着同样的政治风险。这样一来，奥巴马就会被控诉将白宫的面子放在了一场恶仗的成功之上。不管到底是否如此，反对人士都会说，在战斗一开始就撤换掉将军，足以扰乱整个反叛乱行动。而且，尽管能替换MacChrystal将军的人不在少数，但是他毕竟是奥巴马亲手挑选的代替布什政府的旧司令David McKiernan的人。换句话说，不久之前，奥巴马还相信MacChrystal将军具有独特的资格，能漂亮地指挥阿富汗战争。现在解雇他无疑给了共和党一个黄金话柄：共和党会认为奥巴马在报复一位鞠躬尽瘁，若说有罪也只因太坦白和不谨慎的军人。阿富汗的MacChrsytal将军不是韩国的道格拉斯麦克阿瑟：他只是服从命令，而不是反抗命令。

Mr Obama cannot win in these circumstances, only strive to minimise his losses. The immediate danger if he handles the affair badly is that the war effort will suffer and he will be blamed for it. A worry for the longer term is that Americans might once again come to think, as they did before Iraq turned sour, that the Democrats are less able than Republicans to handle the armed services and look after national security. That might not count for much in the coming mid-terms, which will be dominated by economic worries, but it could matter in 2012, by when General David Petraeus might have entered politics. And it would be a wretched irony after all the work Mr Obama has put into guarding this flank: keeping on Robert Gates as defence secretary, avoiding Bill Clinton’s mistake of moving too fast on gays in the military and intensifying the “good war” in Afghanistan, despite all the risks and the howls of his own left wing. What a pity that the man he sent to win the war had such a big ego, and such a loud mouth.

在这样的环境下，奥巴马是赢不了的，他只能尽量减少损失。此事他若处理不当，最直接的危害就是战局将不顺，而他也会因此承担骂名。而长远的忧虑在于，美国民众有可能像在伊拉克局势变坏之前一样，再次认为民主党处理三军和保卫国家安全的能力不及共和党。这种民意倾向对即将到来的中期选举可能没什么影响（这次中期选举主要受经济上的问题支配），但是却会影响到2012年的大选，届时，David Petraeus将军有可能已经涉足政坛。这是一个可怜的讽刺，因为奥巴马为守卫阿富汗战争付出了诸多努力：继续邀请Robert Gates担任国防部长；避免了克林顿迅速处理军队里的同性恋的错误；强化阿富汗战争是“义战”；忽略了所有自家左翼分子的反对和一切风险。但是很遗憾，奥巴马派出赢取战争的那个人，竟然如此自大，如此大嘴巴。

引用 林安萧 2010-9-26 18:05

没事没事

引用 lilywizardry 2010-9-26 20:34

回复 林安萧 的帖子

不好意思，后台也没找到。
要不你把二楼的文章重新在专栏版发一遍吧。
抱歉啊。

引用 林安萧 2010-9-26 21:02

回复 lilywizardry 的帖子

好的
没事没事

引用 helonSY 2010-9-26 22:45

这篇不敏感！

引用 levitan 2010-9-27 09:41

看过就顶 支持 很犀利

引用 handsomu 2010-9-27 12:36

楼主好文！
自己的一个看法
they have lost for ever the let-out of devaluation.
应该说的是加入欧元区的国家永远失去了使本币贬值以增加本国竞争力的机会
这个let-out 我觉得应该是作为一种“方法”或者“手段”来理解
在用欧元之前，欧洲国家当然可以通过本币贬值以增加本国商品的国际竞争力来促进本国的出口的嘛！

引用 林安萧 2010-9-27 14:52

回复 handsomu 的帖子

恩 有道理
关于这方面我不是很懂
受教了~

引用 weixuechao 2010-9-27 18:18

欧元，会被猎杀吗？

引用 741621269 2010-9-27 21:47

引用 林安萧 2010-9-29 20:28

回复 741621269 的帖子

谢谢
多提意见

引用 Husbronick 2010-9-30 10:51

Had it not existed, the European Union would in the past two years have been convulsed
by a more extreme version of the currency instability that rocked it in the early 1990s.“如果没有这一政策，那么在过去的两年里，欧盟早就被更严重的，早在20世纪90年代早期就震撼过欧洲的货币不稳定搞垮了”
试将句子拆分来说，“如果没有这一政策，过去的两年中，欧盟早就重蹈20世纪90年代的覆辙，遭受比当时货币极度动荡更为严重的影响。”

引用 林安萧 2010-10-1 11:55

回复 Husbronick 的帖子

我之前也想过这样拆分，但是觉得意思上有欠缺之处 我再想想

引用 Edmontonian 2010-10-7 06:49

同意Husbronick的翻译。还有一些：
Brussels虽然字面是布鲁塞尔的意思，但是实际指的是欧盟 （总部在布鲁塞尔）。

第五段，楼主应该指出其他形式的介入是指政治上的介入 （与第三，四段提到的介入相区别）。

引用 林安萧 2010-10-9 11:55

回复 Edmontonian 的帖子

布鲁塞尔方面的介入 从后面的例子看 不仅仅是政治方面的啊。。。
不是还有控制基金一说么。。。。

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