[2011.08.05] 现金就是王道

引用 join_soon 2011-8-20 13:52

回复 EmilyCan 的帖子

Financial markets
金融市场

Cash is king
现金就是王道
Aug 5th 2011, 17:22 by A.D. | LOS ANGELES

IF YESTERDAY'S market rout is anything to go by, investors seem finally to be taking the full measure of the panoply of risks and the exceptional uncertainty they face. What are their options in the current context?
虽然8月4日地股市暴跌是再平常不过的事情，但投资者似乎正采取全面措施应对大范围风险及所面临的高度不稳定性。当下，他们能有什么可选措施呢？

Gold, perhaps the oldest refuge of nervous money, has attracted enormous interest from investors who have been rattled by the financial crisis. As of Thursday, gold’s annualized real return over the past five years is a stunning 18.3%. That rise has pushed gold into bubble territory, diminishing its claim to safe haven status; putting money into a bubble is hardly a prescription for capital preservation.
每每发生货币恐慌，黄金就成为其避难所。金融危机下惶恐不安的投资者在黄金上投注了浓厚的兴趣。截止本周四为止，黄金在过去五年内的实际年收益率竟高达18.3%。这一增长率削减了黄金作为安全的避风港形象，黄金被划进”泡沫领域”，而将金钱推向泡沫边缘并不能解决保本产品的问题。

The yellow metal is even overpriced against our second candidate, the Swiss franc—despite the fact that the franc itself also looks overheated, as Buttonwood remarked last month. On Wednesday, the Swiss National Bank, which is not prone to hyperbole, called its currency “massively overvalued” and promptly cut the target range for its key policy rate to 0.00-0.25%. The franc has appreciated by close to 40% against the euro since January 2010.
Buttonwood专栏于上月指出，黄金价格甚至高过世界第二大货币——瑞士法郎，尽管法郎自身也有过热迹象。本周周三，瑞士国家银行客观地【－－－不要轻易用这个词，你可以注意一下，这个词一般不会出现在英文里的，这是一个党八股词汇】指出，市场严重高估了法郎币值，并立即将关键基准利率的调整幅度减少为0.00-0.25%。自2010年1月以来，法郎兑欧元的涨幅近40%。

Finally, Treasuries are a reflexive choice in a crisis. Sure enough, the 10-year yield fell by roughly 20 basis points yesterday (yield is inversely related to bond prices), but locking in a 2.40% nominal yield is more akin to surrender than a genuine defensive strategy. Naturally, you can sell the bonds before they mature, but that leaves you exposed to price risk.
最终在一场危机中，国库扮演着反身抉择的角色。事实是，10年债券的收益率在昨天一天之内下降了近20个基准点（收益与股票价格反向变化），不过将名义利率锁定在2.40%相当于自我放弃，而不是有效的防守 。当然，你可以在债券到期前就将其出售，不过同时你就地面临价格风险。

In the flight to safety, however, investors are overlooking one asset class: cash. Not all investors, mind you. The Quantum Endowment Fund—George Soros’s vehicle—is reportedly 75% in cash. At FPA Capital, Robert Rodriguez, a respected value investor and one of the few people to anticipate the credit crisis, has over 30% of his flagship fund in cash. And in an interview published on July 23rd, the head of PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian told Barron’s:
And don't underestimate the value of cash; in a volatile world both good and bad assets are impacted, and the higher the probability of being able to buy good assets at really cheap levels. You don't want to be fully invested today.
In the Pimco Global Multi-Asset Fund [ticker: PGAIX], which I manage with Vineer Bhansali and Curtis Mewbourne, we have 10% cash, which is very significant.
然而，在打金融安全战的时候，投资者忽略了一种资产：现金。当然，并非所有的投资者都忽略了现金。据称，投资者索罗斯(George Soros)旗下的量子基金(Quantum Endowment Fund)持有75%的现金。FPA资本基金的资深价值型投资人罗伯特•罗德里斯格（Robert Rodriguez）是极少数的预测信用危机人员的其中一名，他持有的旗舰基金的现金量超过了30%。在7月23日公布的访谈中，太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)总裁穆罕默德-埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed A El-Erian)与财经周刊Barron’s进行了对话：
"不要低估了现金的价值。在一个变幻莫测的世界里，无论是优良资产还是不良资产，都受到了影响，同时也提高了在较低的价格水平购买到优良资产的可能性。如今你不会想把资金全部投入的。
我和威尼尔（Vineer Bhansali）、柯蒂斯（Curtis Mewbourne）共同经营PIMCO环球多元资产基金（PGAIX），我们所持10%的现金流，这非常点重要。"

As Mr El-Erian suggests, cash has a characteristic that is often overlooked: its optionality. Having cash on hand in a volatile market gives you the flexibility to purchase assets in the future at discounted prices. It’s a mistake to feel compelled to be fully invested in an environment in which there are few attractive opportunities. Or as hedge-fund manager Seth Klarman puts it: "Why should the immediate opportunity set be the only one considered, when tomorrow's may well be considerably more fertile than today's?" During periods of significant dislocation, when other investors are forced to liquidate positions, cash’s embedded option becomes particularly valuable.
正如埃尔-埃利安所说，现金往往被忽略的是其期权性风险的特点。在多变的市场中持有现金可以让你在市场上能灵活地以贴现价格购买未来资产。在缺少具有吸引力的投资环境下，其实并不是你感觉到的被动全权投资。对冲基金经理赛斯•卡拉门（Seth Klarman）说：“既然明天的投资机会也许比今天的投资能收益得更多，那么为什么只考虑眼前的投资机会呢？”在意义重大的转让阶段，当其他投资者不得不平仓时，现金的嵌入式期权特点就变得特别有价值了。

The best measures of long-term value—the q ratio and the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio—both suggest American stocks are overvalued, even after the recent price declines. What if those discounted prices never materialise? It’s true that markets can remain expensive for long periods before value re-asserts itself, but the numerous risks in today’s environment are potential catalysts for that process to occur. When it does, prices typically overshoot on the downside along the way, at which point buying opportunities—and those investors with the cash on hand to scoop them up—will both be flush.
Q比率（资产市价对现时重置成本比率）和周期调整市盈率（CAPE）是评估长期价值的最佳标准是，二者均显示出美国股市估值过高，即便在近期股价下跌后估值仍然过高。如果这些股票永远不会实现贴现价格怎么办呢？市场在价格重定之前会长期保持高价位，但是在当下的环境下存在太多风险可能促使贴现价的实现。贴现价实现后，价格通常会呈较大overshoot的下降趋势，降至购买机会实现的点，持有现金的投资者就在该点买入（存在购买机会点的价格与持有现金投资者买入的价格持平）。【flush: 极多，涌流；开心，红光满面】

引用 蚂蚁的天空 2011-8-20 20:30

thank  you，the  author！

引用 初始的风 2011-9-4 21:12

in the flight to safety
不是in the fight to safety
打金融安全战好像错了~~~

查看全部评论(3)