[2010.05.27]Realpolitik returns 回归现实政治

林安萧

The National Security Strategy
美国国家安全战略

Realpolitik returns
回归现实政治

The National Security Strategy reveals a narrower view of what force can accomplish
美国国家安全战略收窄武力使用范围
May 27th 2010 | From The Economist online



EVERY incoming president is required to send Congress a National Security Strategy. Some of these documents are abstract and forgettable but others really do provide a clue to the future. One such was the document George W. Bush signed in 2002, which gave warning that America would act against foes seeking dangerous military technologies before such threats were fully formed. A year later the Bush administration cited precisely this doctrine to justify the invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein.
美国每一届即将上任的总统都会向国会提交一份国家安全战略。在这些文件中，有一些很抽象，很容易被遗忘，而有一些却为美国日后的国家行为提供了线索。例如，在2002年乔治·沃克·布什签署的国家安全战略中，他声称美国将会先发制人，采取搜查大规模杀伤性军事武器的方式来对抗敌人。一年之后，布什政府以此文件为由对伊拉克发动了战争，并推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因政权。

Barack Obama’s National Security Strategy, published on May 27th, has a different emphasis. Mr Obama opposed the invasion of Iraq. His document does not endorse Mr Bush’s doctrine of pre-emption. Nor, though, as the Iranians will doubtless note, is pre-emption explicitly disavowed. As a last resort, says the strategy, “the United States must reserve the right to act unilaterally,” albeit adhering to “standards that govern the use of force”.
5月27日，美国国会发布了奥巴马提交的国家安全战略。在这份文件中，奥巴马和布什强调的重点并不一致。奥巴马反对对伊拉克的侵略，也不支持布什的先发制人策略。但是，也不像伊朗人会解读的那样，奥巴马明确否定了先发制人的策略。战略指出，尽管遵守着“控制使用武力的标准”，但在万不得已时，“美国保留单方面采取行动的权利”。

A bigger difference between the approaches of the two presidents is in their estimate of American power. Whereas the Bush document started by stressing America’s “unprecedented and unequalled” strength and influence, Mr Obama’s acknowledges the limits to America’s power. “No one nation—no matter how powerful—can meet global challenges alone,” it says.
两位总统的战略报告中一个更大的不同在于对美国国力的估计。布什的战略文件一开始便强调美国“前所未有，举世无双”的国力和世界影响力，而奥巴马却承认了美国国力的局限性。报告称，“不管其国力多么强大，没有一个国家能够独自面对全球挑战。”

Reflecting this new sense of limits, the Obama doctrine is not only less ambitious than his predecessor’s but arguably less idealistic. Mr Bush said his aim was “to promote a balance of power that favours freedom”. Under Mr Obama the neocon notion of spreading democracy by force has gone. The Obama approach recognises the need to advocate universal values, and the importance of living by them at home, but says that America “will not impose any system of government on another country.” America, the new document says, will seek “principled engagement” with non-democratic regimes.
就承认局限性这点来说，奥巴马主义和其前辈的观点相比，不仅仅收缩了野心，而且更加现实。布什称他的目标是“促进利于自由的权力平衡”，而在奥巴马主义中，这种通过武力传播民主的新保守主义已荡然无存。奥巴马认识到了宣扬普世价值观的必要性，以及在国内普及这种观念的重要性。报告称，美国“将不会把任何制度强加于任何国家至上”，对于那些不民主的政体，美国将寻求“有原则的接触”。

Mr Obama also seems eager to narrow the circle of America's enemies. The focus now is not on “terrorism” broadly, or on Islamic extremism, but more precisely on “defeating al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and around the globe”. The new document places an unusual emphasis on rebuilding the economy as one of the nation’s top national-security priorities, and it is the first National Security Strategy to warn against the security threat posed by “individuals radicalised at home”.
此外，奥巴马似乎急于缩小美国的军事打击范围。如今的焦点已不是广泛打击恐怖主义，或者伊斯兰激进主义，而是明确地“打击基地组织以及其在阿富汗，巴基斯坦和全世界的附属机构”。新的安全战略还罕见地把重建经济作为美国首要的国家安全战略重点。同时，这份战略报告也首次对由“国内激进的个人”引起的安全威胁发出警告。

And yet the new document on its own hardly amounts to a full “Obama doctrine”. At most, a document concocted for open publication and congressional consumption by officials in the White House offers a set of clues to how a president will act on national security. It is not a blueprint. To figure out what Mr Obama is about, it is necessary to watch what he does as well as what he says. A gap has already opened between the two: the prison camp at Guantánamo has not yet been closed, for example. If a single theme emerges, it is that the new president believes that America has overreached abroad and must rebuild at home. Not inspiring, perhaps, and certainly not surprising. But many will regard it as refreshingly realistic.
然而，这份文件并不等于奥巴马主义。它至多只是一份由白宫官员撰写的为了公开发布和国会消费的文件而已，只不过它就美国总统如何处理国家安全问题提供了一些线索。它不是一份蓝图。要想明白奥巴马的政治态度和策略，不仅要听他所说，也要看他所做。而奥巴马并非言行一致，例如，关塔那摩监狱仍未关闭。在这篇战略报告中，若说出现了单一主题，那就是，这位新总统认为，美国对外干涉了太多，应该关注国内重建。这份报告也许并不激励人心，但肯定是意料之中。但仍有很多人认为它是一种清新的现实主义。

林安萧

呃。。。。。我的图呢。。。。。。