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【2015.10.30】Family planning 计划生育

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发表于 2015-10-30 14:20:58 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 黑蔷薇 于 2015-11-2 16:02 编辑

Family planning
计划生育

China allows all couples to have two children
中国允许所有夫妇生育二胎

China has abandoned its more than 35-year-old “one-child policy”. Now couples can have two
中国放弃了拥有35余年历史的“独生子女政策”。现在,夫妻可以生育二胎

Oct 29th 2015 | China



IT HAD been a long time coming. Chinese demographers had been worrying aloud for years about China’s rapidly ageing population and plunging birth rate and the impact these trends would have on the country’s economy. On October 29th the Communist Party finally ended the “one-child policy” that has been widely—often excessively—blamed for exacerbating these problems. Now couples will be allowed to have two. But the party still insists, unlike the government of any other nation, that it has the right to control people’s fertility.

一切,终究尘埃落定。中国快速的人口老龄化、急剧跳水的出生率以及由此些问题可能引发对本国经济的冲击的问题,已让中国的人口学家们长期“夜不能寐”。曾几何时,独生子女政策由于加剧了前述问题的严重性而广受诟病,而就在10月29日,中国政府(共产党)最终让这一政策“寿终正寝”--夫妻可以生育二胎。但和其他国家政府不同,中国政府仍然坚持其有权力对本国人民的生育状况进行调控。

It had already made several adjustments to the policy since it was introduced in 1979. These have long allowed those living in the countryside to have two children under certain conditions—if the first child is a girl, for example. In urban areas, the party allowed couples to have two children if both parents were themselves only children. It relaxed this in 2013, allowing couples to have two if only one parent meets that requirement. Ethnic minorities (less than 10% of the population) are often allowed two or more.

自生育政策于1979年颁布以来,几经修订。在中国农村,二胎一直都能得到许可,但是这也是需要满足一定特定条件的,比如第一胎须为女孩,诸如此类。在城市,政府允许夫妻生育二胎,但前提是夫妻双方均为独生子女。2013年,生育政策进一步放宽,只要夫妻双方有一方是独生子女,那么该对夫妇就能够生育二胎。而少数民族(占中国总人口不到10%)群体,可生育二胎,甚至更多。

Now the party has relaxed somewhat more, but by limiting the number to two it has failed to remove a persistent cause of public discontent: nosy officialdom prying into the family-planning decisions of couples and imposing crippling fines on violators—occasionally, even, forcing women to undergo abortions.

现在,政府在生育问题上已经作出了进一步的放宽,但将生育上限放宽至二胎也并没有终结民众持续的忿忿不平:多管闲事的官员在计划生育问题上指手画脚,违者处以重罚,个别时候甚至对妇女实施强行流产。

Another reason not to celebrate is that it is far from clear that the change will have much of an impact on the birth rate. In spite of the party’s claims that the one-child policy helped prevent the births of some 400m people, much of its success in bringing down the birth rate occurred in the 1970s, before the policy was introduced. Since then, much of the further decline may well have been the result of a lack of desire, in the case of urban couples especially, to have more than one child. Fast-rising costs of housing, education and healthcare have contributed to this. After the previous relaxation was introduced in 2013, the government expected that 2m couples would try for a second child under the new rules within the first year. By the end of 2014 fewer than 1.1m had applied.

之所以现在还不能高兴太早,还有一个原因:生育政策的改变对生育率是否会有实质性提高还需打上一个问号。尽管政府一直声称独生子女政策减少了4亿潜在人口的出生,但是需要注意,20世纪70年代生育率下降、人口成功得到控制是发生在独生子女政策颁布之前的。而自那以后,生育率的进一步滑坡可能更多需要归功于民众对多要一个孩子这件事并不那么感冒,在城市,这种现象尤其明显。而出现这种情况,与住房成本、教育与医疗投入飙升有着不可分割的联系。2013年对生育政策进一步放宽之后,政府预计在新政策颁布一年内应有大约200万对夫妻可能会尝试养育二胎。但是截至2014年底,只有不到110万对夫妻申请养育二胎。

The party has set no timetable for removing restrictions altogether. This may seem odd, given that there is little evidence that scrapping them would cause such a big baby boom that the country would have difficulty coping. One reason why the party has clung to its strict family-planning policy for so long is because a huge bureaucracy has grown with the task of enforcing it. No official likes to admit that the job they are doing is a waste of time.

在全面放开生育的问题上,政府方面并没有一个时间表。现今也并没有证据显示生育的全面放开会导致婴儿潮爆发至整个国家不堪重负的程度,所以从这点上来看,没有针对全面放开生育制定时间表是有些奇怪的。政府之所以垂青于严苛的计划生育如此之久,原因之一是有一个庞大的官僚机构(注:应指的是我国计生委)在计划生育政策的实施过程中已经孕育而生。没有官员愿意承认自己的工作只是在浪费时间。

It may also be a question of face: leaders are reluctant to abandon in one go a policy which has been such a signature one of the “reform and opening” era. They have invested a huge amount of political capital in defending the policy to those who worry about the human-rights abuses it has spawned; their argument has been that it is a vital underpinning of China’s surging wealth. Many citizens believe this explanation, even if they resent the party’s interference. Thanks to decades of propaganda, it is common to hear that China has “too many people”. Admitting to citizens that this is not the case will require greater bravery than the party can yet muster.

其实可能还有一个脸面的问题:领导人不太愿意一次性完全放弃“改革开放”时期的“杰作”。他们已经投入了太多的政治资本来维护这一政策,在那个时代,有人担心计划生育可能引发人权问题,而领导人则声称这一政策对巩固中国财富累积大有裨益。尽管很多人对政府干预生育问题有所愤恨,但他们政府的说法却深信不疑。归功于数十年的宣传工作,“中国人太多了”这一说法已经传遍大江南北。现在,需要向民众承认现状和当年的说法不大一样了,而政府现在,尚没有足够的勇气来应对。

原文链接:
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21677273-china-has-abandoned-its-more-35-year-old-one-child-policy-now-couples-can-have-two-china

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发表于 2015-11-1 11:55:43 | 显示全部楼层
welcome back. 文章整篇通顺流畅,,就标题more than....35 余年
发表于 2015-11-2 00:01:48 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
翻得真好,我学了几个小时,以后我都要坚持,希望成长得越来越多
发表于 2016-2-29 22:47:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 bryan 于 2016-2-29 22:48 编辑

IT HAD been a long time coming.
一切,终究尘埃落定。
尘埃落定明显用词不当,这段后面的话已经充分说明了作者想要表达的意思。



“中国快速的人口老龄化、急剧跳水的出生率”

试试把名词结构换成主谓结构
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