2022.04.27 乌克兰总理称重建规划必须现在开始

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By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine’s prime minister says reconstruction planning must start now
Denys Shmyhal calls for a recovery fund for Ukraine

Apr 27th 2022 (Updated Apr 27th 2022)

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BEFORE RUSSIA’S invasion, Ukraine’s economy had been expected to experience an upswing this year. In 2021 the country’s GDP amounted to $200bn, the highest in its history, in spite of Russia’s occupation of Crimea and parts of the east of the country. Citizens’ incomes had also been growing. In short, Ukraine was changing and rapidly becoming a prosperous and democratic European country.

On February 24th Vladimir Putin and his Russian army decided to wipe out those gains, along with so much else. Our country’s transformation and its leaning towards the West were wrecking the imperial ambitions of the Kremlin. During the first six weeks of the war, the total damage to Ukraine’s economy exceeded $500bn. According to government estimates, this figure could increase in the long run to $1trn, or five times last year’s GDP. In 2022 alone GDP may drop by 30-50%. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, while millions have been forced to flee to western Ukraine or abroad.


Very early in his military gamble, Mr Putin will have realised that the Ukrainian people were going to offer substantial resistance. That is why Russia has changed its tactics and is now doing everything to destroy Ukraine’s economy and throw our nation back to the 19th century. All our sea ports are blocked and it was through them that Ukraine exported more than 70% of all our cargo. Two of our largest metallurgical enterprises—Illich Iron & Steel Works and Azovstal in Mariupol—have been destroyed. Nationwide more than 7,000 residential buildings have been damaged or obliterated.

The invasion is also important because of the broader economic shock to the world economy. Last year Ukraine was the second-largest grain supplier to the European Union, accounting for 14% of the EU’s grain imports. It was also the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, with a share of some 47% of global supply. So Russia’s aggression threatens to spark a global food-supply crisis. It could also affect many other industries, such as the tech world. Ukraine’s two leading suppliers of neon, which produce half the world’s supply of a crucial ingredient for making chips, have had to stop operations because of the Russian assault. That is yet another reason why we emphasise that victory for Ukraine is in the best interest of the whole world. How the country rebuilds will be a crucial part of this.

We estimate that full-scale recovery will cost around $600bn. For now there are 14 government groups that have been set up to count precisely all the destruction done by the Russian invasion. This will be not only the harm done to infrastructure, but also environmental damage and business losses.

The Ukrainian government has already created a recovery fund for long-term reconstruction. In our opinion, this recovery fund can be a one-stop solution for reconstruction. It will reduce logistical and administrative costs and we encourage our international partners to channel everything though this fund.


The restoration of the country’s infrastructure is the obvious place to start. We estimate that total damage in this area may already be more than $100bn. In addition, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have lost their homes, which will need rebuilding. This construction must take place according to modern European standards.

We don’t just want to rebuild roads, bridges or water mains. We plan to build a completely new economy. First of all this will mean reshaping old government institutions. With the help of the international community, Ukraine hopes to move quickly to join the EU. This means that our legislation will be built on European principles. Ukraine has already fulfilled 63% of the terms of the EU’s “association agreement”. We can definitely implement the other 37% in the next two years.

We also understand that the threat from Russia will not be completely gone in the near future. Nor will the need to strengthen our military, energy and food security. These three sectors will definitely be prioritised by our government.

According to World Bank data our military expenditure in 2020 was more than 4% of GDP. This number will grow significantly. Our government plans to increase state investment in the military-industrial complex and provide private defence companies special help in order to boost arms production both for the Ukrainian military and for export abroad.

The energy sector has also experienced billions of dollars’ worth of damage. In 2021 Ukraine was among the countries that heeded the EU’s call for implementation of its Green Deal. In our recovery we will continue to follow this. We will prioritise help for nuclear, hydro, solar and wind-energy plants. Fair transformation of coal regions will continue. Energy independence for Ukraine is impossible without a significant increase in gas production. According to government planning, investment from state-owned and private companies can help to ensure such independence in three to five years.

There are three possible sources of finance for the recovery fund. One is Russian assets, now frozen in the West, which are believed to total at least $300bn. A team of lawyers from the Ukrainian government is already working with foreign governments to make sure these assets can be released and put to use in rebuilding our country after the war.

Second, Ukraine hopes to receive grants and soft loans from Western countries and international organisations. The sectors in need of reconstruction can attract investment from some of the world’s largest companies. We hope that our push for accession to the EU will persuade private investors that Ukraine is an excellent place to be involved in reconstruction. We expect that in June 2022 the European Commission will recommend Ukraine for membership and that in two years Ukraine will be a member state.

The third source will be our own government, our own businesses and the Ukrainian people themselves. We have shown that we are ready to die for our freedom and we know that we will eventually win this war. But victory on the battlefield is only half of the objective. The other half of the victory is to rebuild Ukraine and make it a modern and prosperous European country. We are committed and ready for this, and we ask that the world joins with us in this noble endeavour.

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Denys Shmyhal is the prime minister of Ukraine.


应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
乌克兰总理称重建规划必须现在开始
丹尼斯-施米哈尔呼吁为乌克兰设立恢复基金

2022年4月27日（2022年4月27日更新）。


在俄罗斯入侵之前，乌克兰的经济曾被预期在今年出现上升趋势。2021年，尽管俄罗斯占领了克里米亚和该国东部的部分地区，但该国的GDP达到了2000亿美元，是历史上最高的。公民的收入也一直在增长。简而言之，乌克兰正在发生变化，迅速成为一个繁荣和民主的欧洲国家。

2月24日，弗拉基米尔-普京和他的俄罗斯军队决定将这些成果和其他许多东西一起抹去。我们国家的转型和对西方的倾斜正在摧毁克里姆林宫的帝国野心。在战争的头六个星期，乌克兰的经济总损失超过了5000亿美元。根据政府的估计，从长远来看，这个数字可能会增加到1万亿美元，即去年GDP的5倍。仅在2022年，国内生产总值就可能下降30-50%。数以万计的乌克兰人被杀害，而数百万人被迫逃往乌克兰西部或国外。


在其军事赌博的早期，普京先生将意识到，乌克兰人民将提供大量的抵抗。这就是为什么俄罗斯改变了战术，现在正竭尽全力摧毁乌克兰的经济，并将我们的国家扔回19世纪。我们所有的海港都被封锁了，正是通过这些港口，乌克兰出口了我们所有货物的70%以上。我们最大的两家冶金企业--伊利奇钢铁厂和马里乌波尔的Azovstal--已经被摧毁。在全国范围内，有7000多座住宅楼被损坏或被毁。

这次入侵也很重要，因为它对世界经济造成了更广泛的经济冲击。去年，乌克兰是欧盟的第二大粮食供应国，占欧盟粮食进口的14%。它也是世界上最大的葵花籽油出口国，占全球供应量的约47%。因此，俄罗斯的侵略有可能引发一场全球粮食供应危机。它还可能影响许多其他行业，如科技界。乌克兰的两个主要的霓虹灯供应商，生产世界上一半的制造芯片的关键成分，已经因为俄罗斯的攻击而不得不停止运作。这是我们强调乌克兰的胜利符合整个世界的最佳利益的另一个原因。该国如何重建将是其中的一个关键部分。

我们估计，全面恢复将花费约6,000亿美元。目前，有14个政府小组已经成立，以精确计算俄罗斯入侵造成的所有破坏。这不仅是对基础设施的伤害，也包括环境破坏和商业损失。

乌克兰政府已经为长期重建建立了一个恢复基金。在我们看来，这个恢复基金可以成为一个一站式的重建解决方案。它将减少后勤和行政费用，我们鼓励我们的国际合作伙伴通过这个基金来提供一切。


恢复国家的基础设施显然是开始的地方。我们估计，这一领域的总损失可能已经超过1000亿美元。此外，数以万计的乌克兰人失去了他们的家园，这将需要重建。这种建设必须按照现代欧洲标准进行。

我们不只是要重建道路、桥梁或水管。我们计划建立一个全新的经济。首先，这将意味着重塑旧的政府机构。在国际社会的帮助下，乌克兰希望能迅速加入欧盟。这意味着，我们的立法将建立在欧洲的原则之上。乌克兰已经履行了欧盟 "结盟协议 "中63%的条款。我们肯定能在未来两年内实施另外37%的条款。

我们也明白，来自俄罗斯的威胁在不久的将来不会完全消失。加强我们的军事、能源和食品安全的需要也不会消失。这三个部门肯定会被我国政府优先考虑。

根据世界银行的数据，2020年我们的军费开支超过了GDP的4%。这个数字将大幅增长。我国政府计划增加国家对军事工业综合体的投资，并向私营国防公司提供特别帮助，以促进乌克兰军队的武器生产和向国外出口。

能源部门也经历了价值数十亿美元的损失。2021年，乌克兰是响应欧盟的号召，实施其绿色协议的国家之一。在我们的复苏中，我们将继续遵循这一点。我们将优先帮助核电站、水电站、太阳能和风力发电站。煤炭地区的公平转型将继续进行。如果不大幅提高天然气产量，乌克兰的能源独立是不可能的。根据政府规划，国有和私营公司的投资可以帮助确保在三到五年内实现这种独立。

恢复基金的资金来源有三种可能。一个是俄罗斯的资产，现在在西方被冻结，据说总额至少有3000亿美元。乌克兰政府的一个律师团队已经在与外国政府合作，以确保这些资产能够被释放并用于战后重建我们的国家。

第二，乌克兰希望能从西方国家和国际组织获得赠款和软贷款。需要重建的部门可以吸引一些世界上最大的公司的投资。我们希望，我们对加入欧盟的推动将说服私人投资者，乌克兰是一个参与重建的好地方。我们预计，2022年6月，欧盟委员会将推荐乌克兰加入，两年后，乌克兰将成为一个成员国。

第三个来源将是我们自己的政府、我们自己的企业和乌克兰人民自己。我们已经表明，我们已经准备好为我们的自由而牺牲，我们知道，我们最终将赢得这场战争。但战场上的胜利仅仅是目标的一半。胜利的另一半是重建乌克兰，使其成为一个现代和繁荣的欧洲国家。我们承诺并准备好了，我们要求世界与我们一起进行这一崇高的努力。

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丹尼斯-施米哈尔是乌克兰总理。