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[2007-06-28] The hobbled hegemon 蹒跚的霸主
American power
The hobbled hegemon 蹒跚的霸主
Jun 28th 2007 | CAMP LEJEUNE AND FORT BRAGG
From The Economist print edition
Its troubles in Iraq have much weakened it; but America is likely to remain the dominant superpower
陷入伊拉克的困局是其倍感削弱；然而美国还是会保持其超级大国的霸主地位
Alex Williamson
THE men and women of America's 82nd Airborne Division, whose battle honours include the D-Day landings of the second world war, like to call themselves the nation's “911” emergency service—ready to parachute in, at a moment's notice, to any troublespot in the world. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the 82nd Airborne was the first to deploy in Saudi Arabia to hold the line. And when George Bush announced his surge of forces into Baghdad last January, the “All-Americans” were the first reinforcements.
美国第82空降师的官兵们（他们的战斗荣誉包括二战时的反攻日登陆战），喜欢称自己为国家“911”应急机构——时刻准备着随时降落到世界上任何动荡的地区。1990年当萨达姆•侯赛因入侵科威特时，82空降师被率先部署在沙特阿拉伯坚守阵地。而当乔治•布什去年一月宣布在巴格达急增兵力的时候，“全美最佳阵容”（意指82空降师？？）也是首批增援部队。
These days, though, the 82nd Airborne is no longer America's quick-response service. Its sprawling base at Fort Bragg, North Carolina has emptied out, with all four of its brigades now fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. For the rest of the year at least, the high-readiness brigade is provided by the 101st Airborne Division. Still, the All-Americans insist they can be counted on to “fight and win” in other places if needed. One divisional command sergeant-major says the paratroopers can deploy from anywhere to anywhere and always take their parachutes, just in case.
然而这些天来，82空降师不再是美军的快速反应部队了。其位于北卡罗来纳州Fort Bragg的空旷基地已经人去楼空，所有的四个大队都在伊拉克和阿富汗作战。至少今年余下的时间里，高机动部队由101空降师提供。都是美国人仍然坚持认为如有需要，仍可依靠他们在其他地方“战斗并且取胜”。该师一位大队军士长说，伞兵们可以在随处部署，而为了以防万一他们总是随身携带降落伞（随时准备出发）。
A two-hour drive from Fort Bragg, at Camp Lejeune, home of the II Marine Expeditionary Force, officers say they too are operating “with engines at full throttle”. They no longer have time to rehearse major assault operations, and their training for counter-insurgency is hampered by equipment shortages. Indeed, about half the marines' pre-positioned kit, stored on ships around the world and in vast Norwegian caves, has been drawn down to give front-line fighters what they need.
距离Fort Bragg两个小时车程的Lejeune营地，即第二海军陆战队远征军的大本营，军官们表示他们也在“发动机开足马力”的运转。他们没时间演练主要攻击行动，而且他们的反叛乱训练也因装备不足而无法开展。确实，储存在巡弋世界的军舰以及大量挪威岩洞里面的陆战队预装的装备，其中大约一半消耗在了前线部队的需求上了。
Such signs of strain on America's military forces are like dead “canaries in the mineshaft” that warn of impending disaster, says Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a defence think-tank. In the sixth year of the “war on terror” deployments in war zones are ever longer, while “dwell time” at home to recover is shorter. The army and marines say morale remains strong but, equally, they say the current tempo cannot go on indefinitely. At some point either the resources must increase, or demands on the forces must be reduced.
这些标志美国军力紧张的迹象简直就像“竖井里的金丝雀”一样警告灾难迫在眉睫，一个防卫智库战略与预算评估中心（the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments）的主任，Andrew Krepinevich如是说。进入“反恐战争”的第六年，在战区部署的时间更长了，而在家里停留的时间却更短了。陆军和陆战队表示士气仍然高涨，然而同样地，现时这种状态不会无限期的继续下去。要么资源必须增加一些，要么部队的需求必须减少一些。
Even before the surge was announced, Colin Powell, the former secretary of state and an ex-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said that the active army was “about broken”. The outgoing military chief, General Peter Pace, warned Congress earlier this year that America's ability to deal with another crisis in the world was being eroded. In a classified report, he said there was a “significant” risk that America would not be ready to respond properly to a series of possible military conflicts—from Korea to Taiwan, Cuba or Iran. America could still beat any likely enemy, said the general, but its response would be slower and bloodier.
就算在宣布增兵之前，前国务卿以及前参谋长联席会议主席科林•鲍威尔表示，现役的军队“几乎跑断腿”。即将卸任的部队总司令，Peter Pace将军今年早些时候警告国会，美国对付世界其他危机的能力正被侵蚀。在一个机密报告里，他说美国不能随时准备应对一系列可能的军事冲突——从朝鲜到台湾，古巴，或者伊朗，这存在重大的风险。将军说，美国仍然能够打败任何可能的敌人，然而他的反应将更缓慢，而且结果更血腥。
America is the richest country and the most sophisticated high-tech military power in the world, and is spending more on defence in real terms than at any time since the end of the second world war. Yet it is being exhausted by insurgents armed with AK-47 assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and improvised bombs. With strong pressure on President George Bush to withdraw from Iraq, jihadist militants scent a victory as momentous as the eviction of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989—a defeat that helped to dissolve the Soviet empire.
美国是世界上最富有的国家，也是最老练的高科技军事强国，自从二战结束以来，其实际国防开支比任何时间都多。然而它正被用AK-47突击步枪，火箭推进式手榴弹以及东拼西凑的炸弹装备起来的叛乱分子拖得精疲力竭。带给乔治•布什总统从伊拉克撤军强大压力的吉哈德好战分子，嗅到了一场类似1989年从阿富汗逐出苏联军队——这场胜利促使苏联帝国分崩离析——一样重要的胜利。
True, America has recovered from previous disasters, not least the Vietnam war. But its military troubles come at a time when the global strategic balance appears to be tilting away from America. Iran is filling the vacuum created in Iraq, and is accelerating its nuclear programme. China's military punch is growing along with its booming economy. Russia is more belligerent. The transatlantic relationship is loveless. Across the world, anti-Americanism has increased to the point where the United States is often regarded as a threat to world peace rather than its guarantor.
确实，美国已经从之前的灾难——不仅仅是越南战争——里面痊愈了。然而当全球战略平衡似乎于美国不利的时候，其军事困境出现了。伊朗正填补伊拉克的空白，而且在加速其和计划；中国的军事力量随着经济的繁荣而增长；俄罗斯更加好战了；跨大西洋的关系甜蜜不再。全世界反美主义情绪高涨，美国被视为世界和平的威胁，而不是保证。
Strategists wonder whether the Iraq war has damaged America so badly as to set it on a path to “imperial decline”. Is the post-Soviet “unipolar” world, established after America's first war against Saddam Hussein in 1991, coming prematurely to an end as a result of the second war to topple him? For Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, a leading think-tank, “the American era in the Middle East is over”—and because of the importance of the Middle East, American global power has also been weakened, for years if not for decades.
战略家们想知道，伊拉克战争对美国的破坏有没有这么重，重到把它送上“衰落帝国”的道路。这个“单极”的建立于1991年美国反对萨达姆•侯赛因的第一次战争的后苏联世界，作为推翻他的第二次战争的结果，过早地结束了吗？对于主要智囊团对外关系委员会主席Richard Haas来说，“美国主导中东的时代结束了”——而由于中东的重要性，美国的全球霸权也被削弱了，没有几十年也有好几年（不能恢复）。
Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, blames all three post-cold-war presidents for wasting America's moment of supremacy. In his recent book, “Second Chance”, he praises George Bush senior for his handling of the collapse of Soviet communism with “delicacy and skill” but gives him only a B grade for failing to exploit the victory in Kuwait in 1991 to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. He gives Bill Clinton a mediocre C for his vacillation. George Bush junior gets an unforgiving F for his “catastrophic leadership”. The most powerful image of America, says Mr Brzezinski, is no longer the Statue of Liberty but the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay. Unless Mr Bush's successor takes urgent steps to restore America's political and moral standing, he says, “the crisis of American superpower will become terminal”, and the epoch of American dominance will be shortened.
吉米•卡特的国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫•布热津斯基（Zbigniew Brzezinski），责备冷战后全部三位总统浪费了美国获得最高霸权的时间。在他的新书《第二次机会》里面，他表扬老布什“精致而技巧”地处理了社会主义苏联，但他不能乘着1991年科威特胜利的东风解决阿拉伯世界与以色列的冲突，只给他（老布什）打分B。他为比尔•克林顿的游移不定给了一个平庸的C。小布什因为“灾难性的领导能力”而得到了一个不可原谅的F。布热津斯基说，美国最有影响力的形象，不再是自由女神像而是关塔那摩湾的战俘营。他说，除非布什的继任者采取紧急措施恢复美国的政治及道德立场，否则，“美国霸权的危机将变得难以挽回”，而美国独霸的时代将会缩短。
It was a different George Bush who came to office in 2001, declaring that America had to use its unequalled power judiciously. “If we're an arrogant nation, they'll resent us,” he said during his campaign. “If we're a humble nation, but strong, they'll welcome us.” He accused Mr Clinton of squandering America's power by getting bogged down in the Balkans. Its military forces should be used for war-fighting, not nation-building. His then foreign-policy adviser, Condoleezza Rice, declared: “We don't need to have the 82nd Airborne escorting kids to kindergarten.”
2001年入主白宫的乔治•布什是个异数，他宣称美国需要果断地使用它的无与伦比的力量。“如果我们是个傲慢的国家，他们会憎恨我们，”他在一次竞选活动中如是说。“如果我们是个谦逊却强大的国家，他们就会欢迎我们。”他指控克林顿先生在巴尔干半岛陷入困境从而浪费了美国的力量。美国的军事力量应该用于战争，而不是建设国家。时任外交政策顾问的Condoleezza Rice宣布：“我们没有必要用第82空降师护送小孩子去幼儿园。”
Slimmer, not better 精简，没有效果
Under the “transformation” envisaged by Mr Bush's defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, the army would be slimmed down and money invested in high-tech weapons, reconnaissance systems and data links. Speed, stealth and accuracy would substitute for mass. After the attacks of September 11th 2001, a new political doctrine also crystallised: leadership would substitute for consensus. America would free itself of the encumbrance of formal alliances and multilateral diplomacy. Mr Rumsfeld lived by the dictum that “the mission determines the coalition”, not the other way around.
在布什先生的国防部长唐纳德•拉姆斯菲尔德的“转变” 设想下，军队将会精简，而军费将会投入高科技武器，侦查系统以及数据连接。快速反应，秘密行动以及精确打击替代了大规模作战。2001年“911”袭击之后，新的政策信条也已成形：领导能力取代舆论。美国将从正式联盟和多边外交的障碍中抽身而退。拉姆斯菲尔德先生靠“任务决定联合”（而不是相反）这一信条过活。
The swift removal of the Taliban in 2001 by a “coalition of the willing”, relying on special forces backed by air power, seemed to validate such concepts. But in Iraq the light, mobile force that smashed its way to the centre of Baghdad was plainly inadequate for the task of garrisoning the country, securing the borders and arms dumps, confronting the insurgency and preventing the slide to sectarian war. America's decision to go to war without formal United Nations support left it with few friends when things went wrong.
2001年，塔利班被“自愿者的联盟”依靠空中力量支援的特别武装快速清除，似乎确证了这种思想。然而在伊拉克，猛冲进巴格达市中心的轻装机动的部队显然不足以完成在这个国家驻防，保障边境以及解除武装，对抗反叛以及防止其滑入宗教战争等等一系列的任务。美国决心不经联合国的正式支持而发动战争，当出乱子的时候，自己陷入了孤立无援。
Many will argue over the parallels between the failures in Iraq and Vietnam, but there is at least one connection. For decades after the fall of Saigon, traumatised American commanders gave up the study of messy “small wars” to concentrate on fighting the decisive “big war” against the massed armies of the Soviet block. Commanders assumed, wrongly, that forces trained to fight high-intensity battles could also handle low-intensity conflicts.
许多人争论伊拉克和越南之失败的相似之处，然而至少有一个共同点。西贡失陷以后数十年，精神受创的美军指挥官放弃研究麻烦的“小型战争”，转而集中于为对抗苏联集团的大军而打一场决定性的“大战”。指挥官们错误地估计，受训进行高强度战斗作战的军队也能适用于低强度的冲突。
One cavalry officer, Lieut-Colonel Paul Yingling, has denounced the failure of America's generals—in Iraq as in Vietnam—to prepare the army for counter-insurgency. Calling, in the Armed Forces Journal, for Congress to hold the top brass to account, he wrote: “As matters stand now, a private who loses a rifle suffers far greater consequences than a general who loses the war.” In fact, some changes have been made to adapt to the new face of warfare. Army and marine training centres have been reconfigured. Brigades now exercise in mock Iraqi villages, with thousands of actors playing civilians, Iraqi forces and insurgents. Gone are old-style clashes of massed steel on steel, and some commanders now worry that they are losing the skills to fight big conventional wars.
一位装甲部队军官，Paul Yingling中校指责美国将军们的失败——不管是伊拉克还是越南——都是源于出动军队来镇压反抗。要求国会举行高层军官听证会，他在《武装部队月刊》里写道：“此时看来，丢掉步枪的个人比输掉战争的将军还要蒙受更大的后果。”实际上，为了适应战争的新面孔已经作了一些改变。陆军和海军陆战队的训练中心已经重新装配。旅队在模拟的伊拉克村庄里训练，成千上万的演员装成平民，伊拉克军队以及叛军。老式的钢铁对钢铁的大规模碰撞一去不复返了，而一些指挥官担心，他们正失去打传统的大战的能力。
The recent joint army and marines counter-insurgency manual says the central aim is not to destroy the enemy but to protect civilians. Fighting insurgents involves “armed social work”, with key decisions often taken not by the general at headquarters, but by the corporal on the street. In other words, the main task for the 82nd Airborne Division and other army units for the foreseeable future, pace Ms Rice, will be nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan. Above all, says the manual, counter-insurgency requires large quantities of two resources that America is short of: boots on the ground and time.
陆军-海军陆战队联军最新的反叛乱手册说，中心目标不是消灭敌人而是保护平民。同叛乱者作战意味着“武装的社会工作”，关键决定不是由司令部的将军们而往往是巡逻街头的下士来作出。换句话说，第82空降师以及其他战斗单位在可见的将来的主要任务，赖斯女士说，将是伊拉克和阿富汗的国家重建。最重要的是，手册指示，对抗反叛需要大量美国紧缺的两大资源：地面部队和时间。
The Pentagon says America has the best-led, best-trained and best-equipped army ever fielded. “We are not a broken army, but we are working very hard,” insists one senior officer. “If you ask a marathon runner how he feels after 19 miles, he will say he is tired. That does not mean he is not in shape.” The trouble, though, is that America's forces were designed for sprints, not marathons.
五角大楼表示，美国拥有有史以来最佳领导，最佳训练和最佳装备的军队。“我们不是千疮百孔的军队，但我们非常努力，”一位高级军官坚持认为。“如果你问一位跑完19英里的马拉松运动员感觉如何，他会说累的。但那不表示他状态不好。”然而，问题是，美军是被设计来跑短跑的，而不是跑马拉松的。
America has some 1.5m men and women under arms, including nearly 700,000 in the army and marine corps. But only a fraction can be deployed on a prolonged basis because some units are unsuitable for counter-insurgency, while deployed troops need to be rotated periodically to give them time to recover.
美国的武装力量有150万男男女女，包括陆军和海军陆战队的大约70万人。然而只有一小部分能够长时期在基地部署，因为一些作战单位不适于反叛乱，而部署的军队需要定时换防以使他们有时间休整。
The army reckons it needs at least two brigades at home to sustain one in a war zone. That means the current total of about 50 army combat brigades and marine equivalents in the full-time forces should support about 17 in the field. But with the surge of five extra brigades to Iraq, America currently has 25 such brigades deployed around the world. The pressure is alleviated with part-time units from the National Guard and reserves (currently about two combat brigades), but their use is increasingly unpopular at home.
部队估计国内至少需要两个旅才能维持战区的一个旅。这意味着现在总共50个作战旅和等量的全职陆战队应该支撑战区的17个旅。然而，在伊拉克增兵五个旅之后，美国现在部署在全球的旅队的数量是25个。国民警卫队和预备役的兼职作战单位将减轻这一压力，然而他们在国内越来越不受欢迎。
These days American units get nothing like the recommended 2:1 ratio of dwell time to deployment. Some army brigades currently get barely a year to rest and re-train after serving 15 months, a ratio of 0.8:1. By this measure, American ground forces get a fifth as much rest as their British counterparts—and British commanders say that anything less than two years at home for each six-month deployment (a 4:1 ratio) could “break the army”.
近来，美军作战单位从未得到类似推荐驻军的比例为2:1的轮休时间。一些陆军部队在服役15个月之后，最近只休整了不到一年就又重新投入训练，比例为0.8:1。通过这一措施，美军的地面部队只获得英军同伴的大约五分之一的休整时间——而英军指挥官说，每在战场布防六个月，如果不在家呆上两年（比例4:1）会“毁了部队”。
With some units now on their fourth deployment, an army medical survey in Iraq last month found higher levels of mental-health problems, including a 24% level of post-traumatic stress disorder among those on multiple combat tours. Less than half agreed that “all non-combatants should be treated with respect” and more than a third reckoned torture should sometimes be allowed.
一些作战单位现在正在第四次布防的任上，上个月一份伊拉克驻军的医疗调查发现，心理健康问题占有很大比例，包括执行复合巡逻任务的有24%患有创伤后应激障碍。不到一半的人同意“非战斗人员应被尊重对待”，而超过三分之一的人认为严刑拷打有时候该被允许。
Size matters 规模的拖累
All this does not take into account America's need to keep forces ready to deal with unexpected developments elsewhere. A study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)in April calculated that if the surge in Iraq lasts until April next year (the option floated by commanders in Iraq), only between three and 11 brigades would be available to deal with another crisis in the coming 18 months, depending on how much time units need to recover. But American plans for a major war to, say, defend South Korea have in the past envisaged dispatching 20 or 21 brigades, notes the CBO. With time, America could build up its forces for another campaign by sending or training lower-readiness units, mobilising reservists or, in extreme emergency, by reinstating the draft.
所有这些并未考虑美国需要保证军队随时应对其他地方的突如其来的事态发展。四月份国会预算办公室（CBO）的一份研究计算得出，如果增兵一直持续到明年四月（驻在伊拉克的指挥官们谣传的选择），未来18个月里，只有3到11个作战旅可被用于处理另外的危机，具体的与作战单位需要休整的时间有关。然而美国却计划一场大战，比如说，过去设想派遣20或者21个作战旅保卫韩国，CBO指出。只要时间允许，通过派遣或者训练低戒备作战单位，动员预备役部队，或者在特别紧急情况下，征召退役士兵等等一些措施，美国可以逐步建立打另一场战争的军队。
Clearly America needs a bigger army. The new defence secretary, Robert Gates, has belatedly announced plans to expand ground forces by an extra 62,000 troops—nearly a tenth of the total—to bring the army up to 547,000 and the marines to 202,000 by 2012. This will not immediately ease the strain, as it will take years to prepare new units. And even this rise may not be enough. According to the CBO, the increase would still not sustain the current surge in Iraq without breaching the rotation guidelines.
美国显然需要更大规模的军队。新任国防部长罗伯特•盖茨拖拖拉拉地宣布到2012年，计划把地面部队扩大62000人——大约是总数的十分之一——使陆军增加到547000人，而海军陆战队增加到202000人。因为准备这些作战单位需要数年，所以远水解不了近渴。而且即使增加这么多可能也是不够的。根据CBO的说法，如果不打破轮休的指导方针，增加军队仍然不能维持现在伊拉克的增兵。
Some want an even bigger expansion, perhaps as many as 200,000 more troops. But can America find more soldiers? The army is already short of captains and majors, who take years to train. And despite more generous bonuses, the quality of new recruits is starting to drop, with more in the lowest aptitude ranking, more high-school dropouts and more receiving waivers from disqualification (for example, for using drugs or having a criminal record). The age limit for recruitment has risen from 35 to 42, while fitness levels are lower. Some complain that training standards have also suffered, as the army adopts gentler means to get more recruits through boot camp.
一些人希望更大的军力扩充，或许多到20万的增加。然而美国能够找到这么多士兵吗？军队已经缺少上尉和少校了，这些人需要数年训练。而且尽管津贴更加丰厚，新兵的素质也已开始下降，更多的人资质极低，更多人中学就退学了以及更多人接受资格豁免（例如，吸毒或者有犯罪纪录）。征募新兵的年龄限制从35岁上升到42岁，而健康水平更低了。一些人抱怨训练标准也差劲了，因为军队采取更加温和的手段从新兵训练营征募士兵。
But even though recruitment is difficult, particularly at a time of high employment, the army is growing steadily, from 482,000 in 2001 to about 507,000 today. The army says it sees no need for some of the more radical proposals, such as a return of the draft or recruiting foreigners with the promise of American citizenship. In the 1980s the army alone had 780,000 soldiers, all of them volunteers. The army says the profile of its recruits remains above the average for the American population. The number of soldiers re-enlisting—often during service in war zones—remains high. Indeed, the striking thing about the army and marines is not their morale problems, but their resilience.
然而尽管征募新兵很困难，尤其是在这个高就业率的时代，军队还是稳步增长，从2001年的482000人到今天的大约507000人。陆军表示，一些诸如退役士兵重新归队或者征募外国人（允诺给以美国公民身份）此类的激进建议已经没有必要了。1980年代，光陆军就有士兵78万人，都是志愿兵。陆军表示其新兵的情况超过美国人口的平均水平。重新入伍——通常是在战区服役——的士兵数量仍然很高。确实，陆军和海军陆战队的突出问题不是他们的士气问题，而是他们的恢复力的问题。
Even if the troops can be found, equipping them remains a problem. The army says it entered the war on terror with $56 billion-worth of equipment shortages, and kit is being worn out or destroyed much faster than expected. Everything from night-vision goggles to new body armour and armoured Humvees has to be shuffled around so that deployed units are fully kitted out, leaving those at home with even bigger gaps. The shortages are especially acute in the National Guard, which has only about half the equipment it needs, and part of that is in Iraq. State governors complain that their ability to deal with emergencies, such as tornadoes and hurricanes, is being compromised.
就算能找到这些军队，装备他们仍然是个问题。陆军表示，他们进入反恐战争时，短缺价值560亿美元的装备，而且装备因磨损或者毁坏的消耗速度也比预计的快得多。每一件装备，从夜视仪到新型身体装甲以及悍马装甲车，都要移来移去以使布防的战斗单位装备完全，而国内的部队空缺更大。国民警卫队的短缺特别突出，只有所需装备的大约一半，而且一部分还在伊拉克。州长们抱怨，他们处理诸如飓风和龙卷风之类突发事件的能力现在是捉襟见肘。
As matters stand, America can probably consider only limited and short-lived interventions, for instance to bring disaster relief. Given time, it could crank itself up for a major crisis. What seem out of the question for the foreseeable future are the medium-scale “wars of choice”.
由此看来，美国也许只能考虑有限的和短命的干预措施，例如灾难解救。假以时日，它才能曲折成长到足以应付大危机。在可预见的将来似乎不可能的，是中等规模的“选择的战争”。
For some time to come, the burden of projecting American power will fall even more heavily on the air force and navy. This may be enough to deter hostile governments, but insurgents and militias might be less worried. Air power alone cannot win a war. For now, Iran looks pretty safe from the threat of an Iraq-style ground invasion. Air bombardment may cause serious damage, but may not be enough to stop Iran's nuclear programme or unseat its clerical regime.
对于即将到来的一段时间，凸现美国霸权的重担更多的将落在空军和海军身上。这可能足够吓住敌对的政府，然而叛乱分子和民兵部队却无需如此担心。单靠空军不能赢得战争。现在，伊朗相当安全，不会面临伊拉克式的地面入侵。空军轰炸可能造成严重破坏，但却不足以阻止伊朗的核计划或者推翻这个政教合一的政权。
America's rivals 美国的对手
The dilemma for the Pentagon is how to improve its ability to fight today's insurgencies while preparing for tomorrow's conventional threats. Russia, enriched by high oil prices, is becoming more authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad. It still has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons. But its conventional forces are badly rusted. Large-scale exercises are a rarity for the conscript army, which in any case is heavily committed in Chechnya. The fleet does not put to sea in big numbers. Indeed, Russia's real means of projecting power is not its armed forces, but its sale of cheap advanced weaponry to other countries.
五角大楼的困境是如何一边为明天的传统威胁做准备，一边增加对抗今天的叛乱的能力。因高价石油而富裕的俄罗斯，变得对内更加独裁，而对外更加好斗。它仍然还有大规模的核武库。然而它的常规军力却是严重生锈了。大规模军事演习对这个征召军队来说是稀罕物，而无论如何车臣都是沉重负担。舰队也没有大量下水。确实，俄罗斯凸现其力量的方式并不是武装部队，而是出售廉价的高级武器给其他国家。
India, though growing fast, seems more interested in a strategic partnership with America rather than rivalry. China is the country that most worries the Pentagon. America says it encourages the peaceful rise of China as a “responsible stakeholder” in the world. But its communist rulers are investing heavily in a blue-water navy, which may one day include aircraft carriers, apparently to establish a defensive perimeter deep in the Pacific along a chain of islands that runs from Japan to Guam and Papua. China is also modernising its nuclear arsenal.
印度，尽管迅速成长，似乎更有兴趣成为美国的战略伙伴而不是对手。中国是最让五角大楼担忧的国家。美国表示它支持中国和平崛起成为世界上一个“负责任的大国”。然而它的社会主义领导人大量投入海军，总有一天会拥有航空母舰，显然准备在太平洋沿着从日本到关岛和巴布亚的岛链建立一个防御纵深。中国还在使其核武库现代化。
For the moment the Chinese seem interested mainly in regional dominance, particularly keeping America at bay in any future conflict over Taiwan. They are emphasising “asymmetrical” means designed to blunt America's technological superiority: hoping to deny America the use of the seas with long-range anti-ship missiles and submarines, paralyse its highly computerised forces through cyber-warfare and neutralise spy and communications satellites. In January, China tested an anti-satellite missile. Its defence budget is thought to be expanding by around 12% a year, though its real size is the subject of conjecture. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China last year overtook Japan to become the world's fourth-largest defence spender, after America, Britain and France.
现在看来，中国似乎主要对地区霸权感兴趣，特别是将来某天台湾海峡发生冲突的时候，能把美国阻挡在外。他们重视设计来削弱美国技术优势的“非对称”方法：用海基的远程反舰导弹和潜艇阻止美国，通过自动攻击的间谍卫星和中立的通讯卫星瘫痪美国的高度计算机化的军队。一月，中国试射了一枚反卫星导弹。中国的国防预算被认为每年增加12%，然而实际规模还是颇费猜想。根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（Stockholm International Peace Research Institute）的研究，去年中国紧随美国，英国和法国之后，取代日本成为世界第四大国防费用支出国。
This military expansion is made possible by startling economic growth. China's GDP now surpasses that of Britain or France. According to Goldman Sachs, China will overtake America around 2027 and become by far the world's biggest economy by 2050 (see chart 3). Even now, it is helping to prop up the weak American dollar by buying large chunks of American debt. China is pushing America aside as the world's biggest exporter, and last year it produced more cars than the United States. Europe, too, poses challenges to America: London is vying to replace New York as the most important financial centre, and the euro has displaced the dollar as the main currency of the international bond market.
这种军事扩张由于经济的令人吃惊的增长而成为可能。中国的GDP现在已经超过英国和法国。根据高盛的说法，中国在2027年左右赶上美国，而随后在2050年时成为全球最大的经济体。即使是现在，中国也在通过购买大量美国债券来力挺美元。中国正在取代美国成为世界最大的出口国，而去年它生产的汽车比美国还多。欧洲，也在对美国形成挑战：伦敦正竭力取代纽约成为最重要的金融中心，而欧元也取代美元成为国际证券市场的主要货币。
The force of good example 榜样的力量
Important as “hard” military power and economic might may be, these factors are not all that has made America a superpower or even a “hyperpower”, as the French once put it. The “soft power” of its open culture and liberal democracy has provided an attractive model and encouraged others to see the world America's way. It has allowed America to multiply its influence through an unrivalled network of alliances. It is politically and diplomatically—and in terms of moral standing—that America has been most damaged.
与“强硬”的军事力量和经济实力可能一样重要，这些因素并非是使美国成为超级大国或者甚至像法国人曾经说的是“超级霸主”的全部。其开放的文化和自由民主的“软性力量”已经证明是个有吸引力的模式，而且鼓励其他人按照美国的方式看待世界。这使得美国能够通过其无与伦比的同盟网络发挥成倍增加的影响力。美国在政治上以及外交上——就道德立场而言——（的形象）都遭到了极大的破坏。
For about two years after the invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration could still find evidence to claim that its muscular unilateral military action, however controversial, had made the world safer, encouraged democracy in the Middle East and enhanced American power. The Taliban were gone; al-Qaeda was on the run; America had new military bases in Central Asia; Saddam Hussein was captured and Iraqis voted freely. Moreover, Libya gave up its weapons of mass destruction; Palestinians elected the moderate Mahmoud Abbas after the death of Yasser Arafat; Israel left Gaza; and Syria withdrew from Lebanon. Peaceful revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia brought new pro-Western leaders.
入侵伊拉克大约两年之后，布什政府仍然可以找到证据来宣称强硬的单方面军事行动，不管多么具有争议性，还是让世界更安全了，也在中东推动了民主，以及强化了美国的霸权。塔利班一去不返；基地组织在四散奔逃；美国在中亚获得了新的基地；萨达姆•侯赛因被捕而伊拉克自由选举了。而且，利比亚放弃了大规模毁灭性武器；在亚瑟•阿拉法特死后，巴勒斯坦选举了温和的默罕默德•阿巴斯；以色列撤离加沙；而叙利亚从黎巴嫩撤军。乌克兰和格鲁吉亚的和平演变带来了新的亲西方的领导人。
But as the situation in Iraq has worsened, many of these gains have been reversed. Russia denounces America's “diktat and imperialism”, talks of a new arms race, threatens oil and gas supplies to neighbours regarded as unfriendly, and says it wants to overturn the Western-inspired economic order. America is being rolled back from parts of Central Asia, while Ukraine is in turmoil.
然而正如伊拉克的情况已经恶化，这些成果中有许多也已经转向了。俄罗斯指责美国的“专制主义和帝国主义”，谈论有关新的军备竞赛，威胁其视为不友好的邻居的石油天然气供应，还有表示它想推翻西方主导的经济秩序。美国正在被排挤出中亚的部分地区，而乌克兰正处于骚乱当中。
In the Middle East, a defiant Iran is stoking the insurgency in Iraq (and possibly also in Afghanistan). Its Lebanese proxy, Hizbullah, survived Israel's military onslaught last year with greater prestige. The Taliban have stepped up their insurgency. Above all, al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself, and exploits Muslim resentment over the “war on terror” to recruit new followers to its global jihad.
在中东，目中无人的伊朗正在支持伊拉克（可能还有阿富汗）的暴乱分子。去年，其黎巴嫩代理人Hizbullah从以色列的军事攻击当中逃生后，声望日隆。最重要的是，基地组织死灰复燃，激化穆斯林对“反恐战争”的怨恨，从而招募其全球圣战的新追随者。
Mr Bush has changed his ways. Instead of threatening to topple rogue regimes, his administration has re-opened a diplomatic dialogue of sorts with North Korea, Syria and, most recently, Iran. America has rediscovered multilateralism, not least to keep a united front in imposing limited sanctions on Iran.
布什先生也已改弦易辙。不是扬言要推翻流氓政权，他的政府与北朝鲜，叙利亚以及最近的伊朗重新开启各种外交对话。美国重新发现了多边主义，不仅仅是在有限制地制裁伊朗的问题上维持步调统一。
The “forward strategy of freedom” intended to democratise the Middle East has stalled, not least because elections have worsened sectarian tensions in Iraq and brought Hamas to power in the Palestinian territories. “Will America stay strong? Yes,” says one senior marine. “But can it use its power? That's a different question.”
企图在中东实现民主的“向前的自由策略”已经停止了，至少是因为选举导致了伊拉克的派系紧张关系恶化，以及哈马斯登上巴勒斯坦的政坛。“美国会一直强大下去吗？会的，”一个海军陆战队高级军官如是说。“然而它能一直维持霸权吗？那是另外一回事了。”
The dilemma for America is whether withdrawing from Iraq will restore America's strength or signal greater weakness. America's top brass, for the most part, want more time to try to turn things around in Iraq and avoid another Vietnam. Insurgencies take many years to defeat, they say, pointing to the British experience in Malaya. They are right. But a more apt parallel may now be Palestine, where the British gave up holding the ring between Arab and Jew and left them to it.
美国的困境是，从伊拉克撤军会恢复美国的力气，还是标志着更大的虚弱。美国的要员，在很大程度上，想要更多的时间已扭转伊拉克的局势，避免使之成为第二个越南。他们指出英国在马来半岛的经历说，叛乱需要数年才能消灭。他们是对的。然而现在更恰当的类比可能是巴勒斯坦，英国在那里放弃作为阿拉伯人和犹太人之间的联系的角色，并且交给他们自己处理。
Still number one 仍然是老大
Senior American officials console themselves with the thought that, whatever happens in Iraq, America will bounce back. Before long, perhaps after Mr Bush has left the White House, those complaining about America's overbearing power will come begging for its help.
美国的高级官员用无论伊拉克发生什么事，美国都会触底反弹这种思想来聊以自慰。不久的将来，或许在布什离开白宫之后，那些对美国自大的霸权的抱怨会回来寻求（美国）的帮助。
America still spends roughly as much on defence as the rest of the world put together (see chart 2), and remains the only country able to project military power globally. Next year's budget request for $623 billion (“a gargantuan sum”, according to one Pentagon official) represents 4% of GDP, which is low by historical standards (see chart 4). Military commanders often say that “the nation is not at war; the military is at war”; that is, the American public is not yet making real sacrifices. Taxes remain low, while the casualties are moderate enough not to be greatly felt, particularly by the urban elite. America has ample reserves to defend its global role and, Mr Krepinevich argues, potential rivals also have weaknesses. European countries are rich, but for the most part they are unwilling to spend money on military power; Russia's production of oil and gas is declining, and its population is in a demographic death-spiral; China may yet undergo internal upheavals that could disrupt its economy.
美国每年的国防支出仍然是所有其他国家的总和那么多，而且是唯一能在全球部署军事力量的国家。明年的预算需要6230亿美元（按照五角大楼一位官员的话说是“庞大的数字”< gargantuan,该词源于 Gargantua, 为法国讽刺作家拉伯雷(Rabelais)在其作品《巨人传》中所描写的一个食欲巨大的国王 >），占GDP的4%，低于历史水平。军队指挥官经常说，“我们国家不在战争状态；军队在战争状态”；意思是说，美国公众还没有做出牺牲。维持低税率，而且费用足够适中，很难被（尤其是城市精英阶层）发觉。美国拥有巨额储备来维护其全球的角色，而且，Krepinevich先生认为，潜在的敌人也有软肋。欧洲国家是富有，但是大体上他们不愿再军事力量上花钱；俄罗斯的石油和天然气的出产正在减少，而且它的人口正陷入人口死亡螺旋；中国可能还不会酝酿导致经济崩溃的内部剧变。
Robert Kagan, a prominent commentator, is confident that the American-dominated “unipolar” world will endure. America has weathered worse disasters than Iraq, he says, not least soon after victory in the second world war, when the Soviet Union developed the hydrogen bomb and communists took power in China. Certainly America faces stronger regional antagonists, but none is yet competing for global supremacy, whether alone or in concert. If anything, many states want America's help to “balance” a rising China and a growling Russia. “A superpower can lose a war—in Vietnam or in Iraq—without ceasing to be a superpower,” says Mr Kagan, “so long as the American public continues to support American predominance, and so long as potential challengers inspire more fear than sympathy among their neighbours.”
著名评论员Robert Kagan对于美国主宰的“单极”世界还将继续下去充满信心。他说，至少在二战胜利后不久，其时苏联发明了氢弹而社会主义在中国掌权，美国经受住了比伊拉克还大的灾难。诚然美国面临更强大的地区性对手，但是没有一个能与它一争全球霸权，不管是单挑还是群殴。有区别的话，许多国家希望美国帮助“平衡”崛起的中国和好斗的俄罗斯。“一个霸主可以打输一场战争——越南或者伊拉克——还可以继续做霸主，”Mr Kagan先生说，“只要美国公众继续支持美国的统治地位，只要潜在的挑战者在邻国激起比共鸣更多的恐惧。”
[ 本帖最后由 phynics 于 2007-7-10 17:50 编辑 ] |
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