[2009.06.11] Small but disruptive 小个头、大变革 Small, disruptive

zouzhuocloud

Netbooks
上网本

Small but disruptive
小个头、大变革

Jun 11th 2009 | SAN FRANCISCO AND TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

Laptops are evolving—and forcing the rest of the computer industry to change
笔记本正在不断进化，并且迫使电脑行业的其他产品寻求改变。



Imaginechina

IT WAS like waiting for Godot: in the end, the great man did not come. The crowd at Apple’s jamboree in San Francisco this week was visibly disappointed when Steve Jobs, the computer-maker’s legendary chief executive, did not even put in a brief appearance after a six-month medical leave. But another no-show was perhaps more important. Proving many techno-pundits wrong, Apple did not present a “tablet”—a pared-down computer in both size and abilities, with a touch screen. Had it done so, it might have helped settle a question that has preoccupied the personal computer (PC) industry for some time: are netbooks—cheap and basic laptops that are flying off the shelves—just a fad, or the future?
就如同《等待戈多》里的场景：最终，备受期待的人还是没有来。在本周于旧金山举行的苹果电脑全球研发者大会上，已经医疗休假六个月的苹果传奇CEO斯蒂夫.乔布斯的缺席令人们倍感失望。但另一位缺席者可能意义更加重大。出乎很多行业专家的预计，苹果并未发布在体积与功能方面更加精简的采用触摸屏的平板电脑(tablet)。这也许有助于澄清一个近期个人电脑行业热烈争论的问题：作为笔记本的低价基础款-上网本的热销只是一时流行，还是将引领未来？

The answer is probably both, as an “iPad”, or whatever Apple’s device may be called, would have demonstrated. Netbooks are already being supplanted by a plethora of new gadgets, including tablets and increasingly computer-like mobile phones (see article). But the idea they embody, that a near-permanent connection to the internet permits simpler technology, is already changing the economics of the PC business.
正如苹果的“iPad”（或是其他名称）本应展示的那样，也许两者都是答案。上网本已经有了很多的代替品，包括平板电脑和越来越智能化的手机。但这些产品中包含的想法-“几乎不间断的互联网连接（移动上网）让硬件技术简化成为可能”，已经在改变个人电脑行业的趋势。

Simple, low-cost laptops are not a new idea. There were several abortive attempts to make them in the 1990s, but big computer-makers soon dropped them for fear that they might undermine sales of traditional laptops. In 2005 a charity called One Laptop Per Child designed an ultra-cheap laptop for the developing world. That inspired Asus, a Taiwanese PC-maker, to develop one of its own, called the Eee PC, which it started selling in late 2007 for $250.
简单廉价的笔记本并不是新鲜事物。在上世纪90年度就有几个半途而废的尝试，由于担心其会损害传统笔记本电脑业务，大型电脑制造商很快放弃了这个想法。在2005年，一个名为“每个小孩都有笔记本电脑”的慈善协会为发展中国家设计了一款非常便宜的笔记本。这给了台湾电脑商华硕以灵感，并研发了自己的上网本，名为Eee PC，在2007年下半年以250美元的售价面市。

The timing was perfect. A few months later, the credit crunch hit. At the same time, Intel started selling its cheap and power-saving new processor chip, called Atom. By the end of 2008, Asus had sold nearly 5m Eees and all its rivals had jumped on the bandwagon. In total, 21m netbooks will ship this year, almost twice the number in 2008 and more than 15% of the entire market for laptops, according to Gartner, a market-research firm.
这个时间的选择非常完美。几个月之后，信贷危机爆发。同时，英特尔开始发售省电廉价的新型处理芯片-Atom。到2008年底，华硕已经卖出接近500万Eee上网本，其他的竞争对手也紧随其后。根据市场研究公司Gartner预计，今年总共将售出2100万上网本，比2008年增长了一倍，并且占到整个笔记本市场的15%。

Yet as netbooks have become more popular, many of them have also become more sophisticated. Asus’s first Eee PC was a puny device with a screen measuring only seven inches (18 centimetres) diagonally, a midget keyboard and flash memory instead of a hard disk. It also ran Linux, a free operating system. But consumers in the rich world wanted more. As a result, most of the new devices on display in early June at Computex, a trade show in Taipei, boasted at least ten-inch screens, full-size keyboards and sizeable hard disks, and they ran Windows XP, an old version of Microsoft’s flagship operating system. Many models now go for $600 a pop.
但是随着上网本越来越受欢迎，很多也开始变得更加高级。华硕第一代Eee是一款7英寸（18厘米）屏幕的微型笔记本，键盘很小并用闪存取代硬盘。它预装的是开源的操作系统Linux。但发达国家的消费者需求更高。相对应的，在6月初的台北电脑交易展览会上展出的大多数笔记本，都至少配备了10英才的屏幕，正常大小的键盘与大容量硬盘，并预装微软上一代旗舰操作系统视窗XP。大部分的新款笔记本售价600美元起。

Other gadgets on display at Computex included prototypes of “mobile internet devices”, which sit somewhere between smart-phones and netbooks, “net-tops” (tiny desktops) and “all-in-ones” with touch-screens instead of keyboards, to hang on the fridge, for instance. “The PC industry will ultimately mirror the car industry,” says Ranjit Atwal, an analyst at Gartner. “There will be something for every need and every taste.”
本次展会展出的其他小型设备还有“移动网络设备”的原型机，定位介于智能手机与上网本之间，以触摸屏取代键盘的“上网机”与“一体机”，例如可以挂在冰箱上的机型。Gartner的分析师Ranjit Atwal说：“个人电脑行业最终将复制汽车行业的现状，将会有适应各种需求与喜好的设备。”

Yet although netbooks have acquired many frills and mutated into new forms, the theory behind them endures: computers do not need to be stuffed with the latest whizz-bang technology if they have a high-speed connection to the “cloud” of services available online. At Computex firms showed devices equipped with WiMAX, a new wireless technology that allows for fast, ubiquitous wireless connections.
但即便上网本已经获得许多虚荣并且衍生出很多新版本，但其背后的理念始终未变：如果电脑能快速获得网络“云计算”（参看http://www.hudong.com/wiki/%E4%BA%91%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97）的各种服务，那么就不需要安装最新的高端硬件。在台北电脑展上各家公司展示了装备了WiMAX（3.5G技术）的上网本，这是一种支持随时随地快速无线上网的最新技术。

It is this combination of connectivity and cloud computing that makes netbooks and their successors so disruptive. Some mobile-network operators now throw in free netbooks if subscribers sign up for a mobile-broadband contract. This will put further pressure on prices, since mobile operators have more bargaining power than individual consumers, although it also opens a huge new distribution channel for computer-makers.
正是网络连接与云计算技术使得上网本及其衍生产品具有如此的革新性。目前只要用户签订一种移动宽带协议，部分移动网络运营商可以免费提供上网本。由于移动运营商比个人消费者更具谈价优势，这将进一步降低上网本的价格，并且也为电脑制造商开辟了一片广阔的新分销渠道。

More important, netbooks and similar devices could weaken Microsoft and Intel, which have so far dominated the PC industry and extracted most of the profits. To keep Linux off most netbooks, Microsoft has had to discount Windows XP from $40-45 per copy to $10-15. This, along with the general weakness of the PC market, explains why its earnings dropped almost a third in the first quarter of this year. To make more money from netbooks, it will offer a minimalist “starter” edition of Windows 7, the new version of its operating system due out in October.
更重要的是，上网本及其衍生产品能削弱微软与英特尔的势力，这两家公司长期以来统治个人电脑行业并获取了绝大部分的利润。为了与Linux争夺上网本的市场，微软不得不将视窗XP的价格从每份40-45美元下调至10-15美元。从以上状况，以及目前个人电脑市场的普遍颓势，说明了了今年第一季度微软营收下跌几乎3分之1的原因。为了从上网本市场获得更多利润，微软将在预定10月发售的新一代操作系统视窗7中，提供一个入门版本。

Intel, by contrast, has so far mainly benefited from the netbook craze, which has created a huge market for its Atom chip. The firm insists this has neither cannibalised sales of its other chips as much as feared nor put pressure on its lofty margins, since Atom costs less to make. Still, just as with Linux, there is a credible alternative to Atom: processors based on designs by ARM, a British firm, which already power most of the world’s mobile phones. Several Taiwanese PC-makers are working on a netbook-like gadget that would be powered by an ARM chip and run Android, a variety of Linux developed by Google for use on smart-phones.
与此相反，由于上网本的热销为Atom芯片创造了巨大市场，英特尔目前获益非浅。这家公司坚持认为，由于Atom的低制造成本，这种状况既未影响其他芯片的销量，也未降低其丰厚的利润率。尽管如此，就如同Linux系统之于视窗系统，Atom芯片也存在有力的竞争对手：英国公司ARM设计的芯片，已经占据全球智能手机绝大部分市场。（参考：http://article.ednchina.com/Consumer/20071204073120.htm）几家台湾电脑制造商正在研发微型上网本-它将采用ARM的芯片并运行由Google针对智能手机研发的Android/Linux操作系统。

At Computex, Acer announced that it would use Android together with an Intel chip. Other firms are expected to follow suit. Intel is also pushing another version of Linux, called Moblin. Its long partnership with Microsoft notwithstanding, Intel does not seem to care what operating system netbooks use, provided they contain the firm’s chips.
在台北电脑展，宏基宣称将同时采用英特尔芯片与Android系统。预计其他公司也将效仿。英特尔也在推广另一个版本的Linux系统：Moblin系统。尽管与微软有长期合作关系，但如果上网本采用英特尔的芯片，它看起来并不在乎到底用谁的操作系统。

Linux may also prove popular for tablets, a market that Apple is likely to energise when it finally launches its much-awaited new device (though any Apple tablet will run its own operating system). The reason it did not happen this week, some say, was that either the tablet or Mr Jobs, who would like to present it personally, is not yet ready for action. Unlike Godot, Mr Jobs and the new gadget are likely to appear eventually—probably in time for the holiday season.
也许Linux在平面电脑领域也会受到欢迎，这也很可能是苹果发布期待已久的新一代产品所针对的领域（虽然所有苹果平板电脑都会运行其自有系统）。有人猜测，苹果之所以不在本周发布新产品，其原因可能无外乎是新款平板电脑或者希望亲自来发布这款产品的乔布斯先生中的一方，还没有做好“登台亮相”的准备。但不像永不到来的戈多，乔布斯先生和他的新产品将逐渐浮出水面，也许他们能赶下一个假期季节。



《经济学人》（The Economist ( http://www.economist.com ))
仅同意本网站翻译其杂志内容，并未对上述翻译内容进行任何审阅查对。<object ID=video2 WIDTH=300 HEIGHT=62 CLASSID=CLSID:CFCDAA03-8BE4-11CF-B84B-0020AFBBCCFA>
<param name=_ExtentX value=9657>
<param name=_ExtentY value=847>
<param name=AUTOSTART value=0>
<param name=SHUFFLE value=0>
<param name=PREFETCH value=0>
<param name=NOLABELS value=0>
<param name=SRC value=http://bbs.ecocn.org/attachments/month_0906/0906160650efbc6eca3d98cd90.mp3>
<param name=CONTROLS value=StatusBar,controlpanel>
<param name=CONSOLE value=Clip1>
<param name=LOOP value=0>
<param name=NUMLOOP value=0>
<param name=CENTER value=0>
<param name=MAINTAINASPECT value=0>
<param name=BACKGROUNDCOLOR value=#000000>
</object>

sparker

第一段：
San Francisco 考虑到国内读者的习惯最好译成旧金山
第二段：
a near-permanent connection to the internet permits simpler technology
一种更简单的永久上网技术
用更简单的技术实现几乎不间断的互联网连接

第六段
“net-tops” (tiny desktops) and “all-in-ones” with touch-screens instead of keyboards, to hang on the fridge, for instance.
以触摸屏取代键盘的微型台式机与一体机，例如它可以悬挂在冰箱上。
net-tops翻成“微型台式机”有些牵强，它主要还是在配件和功能上的精简，而PC本来就是“微机”的一种“微型台式机”很容易与“微型机”搞混。建议可以参照笔记本、台式机的叫法，对应“上网本”叫“上网机”好了。
以触摸屏取代键盘的“上网机”以及“一体机”，比如那种可以挂在冰箱上的使用的机型。

There will be something for every need and every taste
将会有适应各种需求与喜好的笔记本
其实不止是笔记本啦，PC的概念正在日益细分化和多样化，就像上文提到的net-top all-in-one这些都不是笔记本，设想中的'ipad'也不是，我想他指的应该是所有这些形式的PC或者处理终端
将会有适应各种需求与喜好的设备应运而生

第九段：
minimalist “starter” edition of Windows 7
我觉得翻成“入门版本”比“精简版本”更妥当。事实上Windows Vista RC1以前工程版也包有这样的所谓'Starter Edition'，只是后来的版本中用'Home Basic'替代了这个版本。'Starter Edition'是功能最少、权限开放最小的版本，更高的版本都是开放了更多内容的，但从Vista开始，微软的概念里，OS的核心都只有一个，你下载或者买到的OS镜像其实包括了所有可实现的功能，只是不同的注册码开放的程度不同罢了。微软是企图通过这样的设计来使得用户更方便地进行网络升级（只需付费买更高端的密钥）。Windows7上面沿用了这样的思路基于这样的概念，我认为它并没有“精简”东西一直都在那里，只是没有开放给你，所以是“入门”。

第十段:
run Android, a variety of Linux developed by Google for use on smart-phones
运行由Google针对智能手机应用研发的基于Linux的Android系统。
是这样的Linux其实是一类操作系统而不是一个操作系统，由于是开源的，所以谁都可以写自己的Linux，赋予它某些特性和规则自成一套系统，所以一些比较大或者比较成熟的组织会给自己写Linux系统起名字以示区别，比如著名的Red hat、Ubuntu等，Intel和Google只是开发了属于自己的体系各起了个名字。的所以文中才会用a variety of Linux。
可以翻成：运行由Google针对智能手机研发的Android/Linux操作系统。（这是业内常用的表述方式）
或者运行有Google针对智能手机研发的Linux操作系统Android。
其实后文里：“英特尔也在推广另一个版本的Linux系统：Moblin系统。”翻得就很贴切。

最后一段
Tablet PC最好和开头部分保持一致，翻成“平板电脑”，平面电脑的叫法不太常听到。

The reason it did not happen this week, some say, was that either the tablet or Mr Jobs, who would like to present it personally, is not yet ready for action.
有人猜测，苹果之所以不在本周发布新产品，原因是新的平面电脑与乔布斯先生都未对个人发布做好准备。
我对“like to present it personally”的理解是“希望亲自来发布这款产品”
有人猜测，苹果之所以不在本周发布新产品，其原因可能无外乎是新的平板电脑或者希望亲自来发布这款产品的乔布斯先生中的一方，还没有做好“登台亮相”的准备。

zouzhuocloud

谢谢楼上的指点，回头修改。

zouzhuocloud

第二段最后一句我还有不同的看法
a near-permanent connection to the internet    permits    simpler technology“用更简单的技术实现几乎不间断的互联网连接”

而permit的解释：If a situation permits something, it makes it possible for that thing to exist, happen, or be done or it provides the opportunity for it. formal

这样看来应该是“几乎不间断的互联网连接”（移动上网）让“技术简化”成为可能。

这样也符合实际：比如在中国，是3G技术让上网本变得热销，而不是上网本实现了3G网络。

sparker

第二段最后一句我还有不同的看法
a near-permanent connection to the internet    permits    simpler technology“用更简单的技术实现几乎不间断的互联网连接”

而permit的解释：If a situation permits somet ...
zouzhuocloud 发表于 2009-6-18 16:37

考虑了一下，这处确实是你现在的理解更准确。我改的时候光考虑了，near-permanent的译法。
当然，你举的例子可能有点小瑕疵。上网本的普及和3G关系还不大，能用3G的上网本还是少数，3G本身只是通过植入移动模块就能让任何笔记本都可以用的一个技术。这篇文章这么说，就我的理解，一方面是因为无线网络的普及（3G是基于移动电话平台的，严格来说只是WWAN的一种实现方式，无线还要包括如WLAN这样的局域网接入模式，比如星巴克提供的上网服务）。就是新网络模式帮我们摆脱了上网地点的束缚。第二，是新的网络分享计算能力的技术帮助我们摆脱了硬件配置的束缚，才使得我们的电脑能够最终实现网络终端化。其实，我们现在用到的还只是第一个方面，云计算还多是用在科学运算方面，比如folding@home计划等。我们普通人用到网络上的共享运算资源可能还需要等提供专门运算资源服务的服务商出现才行，未来这可能就是个大买卖。

zouzhuocloud

多谢，以后还请多多指教。