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[2009.04.11]Two cheers and a jeer 两个欢呼一人嘲笑
本帖最后由 Bender.Z 于 2009-4-25 14:59 编辑
不好意思来的太晚了,不过没有看到截至日期的规定,还是决定贴上来。大家帮忙审查一下,谢谢。
Barack Obama's foreign policy
奥巴马的外交政策
Two cheers and a jeer
两个欢呼一人嘲笑
Apr 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
Most Americans like having a leader whom foreigners adore. But some wish he was feared a bit more
多数美国人都想拥有一个让外国人崇拜的领袖。有些人却更想让别人都怕他。
AFTER Barack Obama’s first long jaunt abroad as president, Americans are in two minds. Some are delighted that so many foreigners love him. Others fret, like Machiavelli, that it is often better to be feared than loved, and that the people who ought to fear America don’t take Mr Obama seriously.
奥巴马首次以总统身份进行国外访问之后,美国人有了两种态度。一些人很高兴看到有那么多外国人喜欢他。其他人则像Machiavelli一样担心被人怕通常要好过被人喜欢,他们觉得那些本应害怕美国的人却不把奥巴马先生当回事。
Everywhere you go, optimists note, Mr Obama is more popular than his predecessor. European leaders jostle to be snapped standing next to him. Star-struck crowds strain their necks for a glimpse of his wife. At the G20 summit in London last week, the world’s rich nations rallied behind him to tackle the global financial crisis. Mr Obama is well-received even in Muslim countries such as Turkey, where George Bush would struggle to fill a single room with friendly faces. All this goodwill must be in America’s interest. 乐观主义者们注意到,不管到哪里,奥巴马总统都比他的前任更受欢迎。欧洲的领导人都争相挤着和他合照。崇拜者们都伸长了脖子一睹他妻子的芳容。上周在伦敦召开的20国峰会上,世界强国的领导者们都蜂拥在他身后以求应对世界经济危机的对策。甚至在像土耳其这样的穆斯林国家,奥巴马总统也大受欢迎,而在这样的地方,恐怕布什一共也找不到几张友好的面孔。所有这些都必将有利于美国的利益。
So far, the optimists form a sizeable majority. Pundits lauded Mr Obama’s performance in Europe. Public approval for his handling of foreign policy rose from 54% in February to 61% at the end of March, according to Gallup. These are impressive numbers. But the same poll found that disapproval of his handling of foreign policy had also gone up by six points, from 22% to 28%. Only the “don’t knows” declined. As Mr Obama starts to have a track record, more Americans are forming opinions about it.
迄今为止,持乐观态度的人占绝大多数。众多学者对奥巴马在欧洲的表现交口称赞。民意测验显示,赞成他出台的外交政策的民众已从2月的54%升到3月底的61%。这个数字让人不能小觑。但,这个测验同时显示,不赞成其外交政策的人也上升了六个百分点,从22%上升到了28%。只有选择“不知道”的人有所下降。随着奥巴马开始拥有自己的政绩记录,更多的美国人正在对此形成自己的观点。
It is all very well, say the sceptics, for Mr Obama to make airy promises about everyone standing together for “the right of people everywhere to live free from fear in the 21st century”. But his main policy proposal towards that end—the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons—is “a dangerous fantasy”, said Newt Gingrich, a former Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, in an online chat with readers of Politico, a newspaper.
怀疑者们说,奥巴马总统对集聚起来的人们做出的“21世纪所有人都有权利不再在恐惧中生活”这一富有幻想的承诺固然是好的。但他的主要政治提议—在全世界实现无核武器的远景目标却是“一个危险的白日梦”,这是一位名叫Newt Gingrich的前任众议院共和党发言人在同Politico报的读者做在线交流时说的。
On April 5th in Prague, Mr Obama reiterated a campaign promise to hold talks with Russia to reduce both American and Russian nuclear stockpiles, to push for a global nuclear test ban and to set up an international nuclear fuel bank to help with peaceful nuclear-energy programmes. The same day, North Korea, which has already made at least one illegal nuclear bomb, fired a test missile over Japan.
4月5日,奥巴马在布拉格重申了他在竞选时的一个许诺,同俄罗斯举行会谈商讨减少美俄两国的核储备,推动全球禁止核试验,建立国际核燃料储备库,以有助于和平的核能源项目的进行。而就在同一天,至少已经制造了一枚非法核炸弹的朝鲜发射了一枚经过日本上空的测试导弹。
Though the missile crashed into the sea, many Republicans think it illuminated Mr Obama’s naiveté. The problem is not the great powers with nuclear stockpiles, they say, but rogue regimes such as North Korea and Iran. Hawks scoff that Mr Obama approaches such rogues with fine words but no stick. He promises that North Korea’s treaty-breaking will have consequences, but so far these have consisted mostly of ineffectual scolding.
尽管该枚导弹最终撞入海中,许多共和党人认为这也说明了奥巴马总统的天真。他们说,问题不在于那些拥有核储备的大国,而在像朝鲜和伊朗这样的流氓政权身上。Hawks嘲笑说奥巴马先生只带了漂亮的言辞去见这些流氓,却没有带棒子。他认为朝鲜毁约会带来一系列后续事件,但迄今主要是无效的责备。
The conservative critique of Mr Obama is that he is Jimmy Carter redux: a woolly idealist who thinks he can sweet-talk bad guys into behaving. While he pursues talks with Iran, Republicans fret, Iran’s leaders chuckle behind their beards and carry on enriching uranium. For many conservatives, the defining image of Mr Obama’s European tour was not the adoring crowds but the way America’s new president bowed before the king of Saudi Arabia. Bloggers juxtaposed his cursory nod to Britain’s Queen Elizabeth with the deep bow he gave to the dictatorial ruler of a far less reliable ally.
对奥巴马较为保守的批评则说他是Jimmy Carter再世,一个糊涂的理想主义者,以为自己可以用甜言蜜语让坏人改邪归正。他试图与伊朗会谈时,共和党人都担忧不已,伊朗领导者们则躲在他们的山羊胡后面偷笑,浓缩铀。许多保守派想象的奥巴马总统欧洲之旅的画面不是崇拜的人群,而是这位美国的新总统是如何向沙特阿拉伯的国王鞠躬的。一些博客将他草草的向英国女王伊莎贝拉点了点头与向这个不可靠得多的同盟国的独裁统治者深深鞠躬放在一起讨论。
Such complaints reflect increasing polarisation. A Pew poll this month found that the gap between Mr Obama’s early approval ratings among Democrats (88%) and Republicans (27%) was wider than that of any president in the past four decades. But since the number of Republicans is dwindling, that still leaves Mr Obama with a healthy level of support. For example, 81% of Americans agree with his goal of improving relations with the Muslim world, and 65% trust him to pursue that goal in a way that is “about right”, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll this week. (Meanwhile, roughly one American in ten still believes, incorrectly, that Mr Obama is a Muslim.)
诸如此类的抱怨反映出两极分化的加剧。本月进行的一场佩尤民意调查发现,奥巴马先生在民主党和共和党之间的早期支持率(分别为88%和27%)的差距比过去四十年间的任何一个总统的都要大。但由于共和党人数的减少,奥巴马先生的支持率依然保持在了一个良好的水平上。例如,据本周华盛顿邮报—ABC新闻报进行的民意测验,80%的美国人同意他改善同穆斯林世界的关系的目标,65%相信他能以一种“可能正确”的途径实现这个目标。
Most Americans also reckon that, despite his touchy-feely manner, their new president is tough enough. His surprise visit to Iraq on April 7th attracted favourable headlines. Nearly two-thirds of Americans now believe the war there is winnable. Most think Mr Obama is doing a good job in Iraq, and a plurality think his plan to withdraw most American troops by the end of 2010 is about right.
多数美国人还认为,尽管新总统态度很让人心动,不过他却相当鲁莽。他于4月7日突然访问伊朗的新闻登上了多家媒体的头条。现在将近三分之二的美国人相信美国会赢得伊朗战争。多数人认为奥巴马先生在伊朗做的还不错,较多数觉得他计划在2010年底撤出大半美国军队的做法可能正确。
Americans are less confident, however, that things are going well in Afghanistan. Many view Mr Obama’s plan to send more American forces there as a necessary evil. By 51% to 41%, they would rather concentrate on crushing the Taliban militarily than rebuilding the Afghan economy. Conservatives note that, despite Mr Obama’s popularity abroad, America’s allies are sending precious few troops to help him do this.
然而,美国人对阿富汗的状况则略显信心不足。许多人将奥巴马先生派遣更多美国军队入驻阿富汗的计划看做是必然的罪恶。41%到51%的人宁愿集中精力粉碎塔利班军队也不愿去重建阿富汗经济。保守党们注意到,虽然奥巴马先生在国外很受欢迎,美国的盟国却都吝惜自己宝贵的军队,不肯派兵帮助他重建阿富汗。
One or two aspects of Mr Obama’s foreign policy are unpopular at home. The attempts of his secretary of homeland security to replace the word “terrorism” with “man-caused disasters” attracted much ridicule. More seriously, Americans disapprove of Mr Obama’s plan to close the prison at Guantánamo Bay by 50% to 44%. But since it is unclear what he will do with the inmates—he has left open the possibility of detaining the most dangerous ones indefinitely—that could change. Even less popular is Mr Obama’s lifting of the ban on federal aid for groups, such as Planned Parenthood, which provide abortions or advise about them in foreign countries. Only 35% of Americans approve of this, with 58% opposed.
奥巴马总统的外交政策有一两个方面在国内不受欢迎。他的国土安全部部长试图将词语“恐怖主义”替换为“人为灾难”,引起了很多嘲讽。更严重的是,44%到50%的美国人反对奥巴马关闭关塔那摩湾监狱。但是,因为目前还不清楚奥巴马先生打算如何处置那些有可能洗心革面的监犯—他离开时曾表示可能要无限期关押那些最危险的囚犯—这种状况也有可能改变。甚至更加不受欢迎的是:奥巴马提议禁止各种团体提供联邦援助,比如计划生育委员,它向外国提供人流或有关人流的意见。只有35%的美国人支持这个提议,58%反对。
For the most part, however, Mr Obama’s foreign policies run with the grain of public opinion. For example, he proposes a slight thawing of relations with Cuba (see article). Most Americans have long favoured full normalisation. An embargo persists only because its advocates are more passionate than its opponents, but that too is changing. Cuban-Americans who fled Fidel Castro’s dictatorship for the barrios of Miami still favour sanctions, but their children have long been less sure about them. And since the diehards seldom vote Democratic anyway, Mr Obama may see little risk in upsetting them.
然而,大部分奥巴马总统的外交政策都和公众意见密不可分。例如,他提议略加缓解与古巴的关系(见相关文章)。多数美国人一直都赞成与古巴关系的完全正常化。而坚持禁港令也只是因为赞成者比反对者的态度更为激烈,但这种状况也正在改变。那些从菲德尔 卡斯特罗的独裁统治下逃离到迈阿密行政区的古巴裔美国人还是很赞成对古巴采取制裁措施,但他们的后代却一直不太确定他们的想法是否正确。由于顽固派们无论如何也都很少投民主党的票,奥巴马先生就算惹到他们也不会有什么风险。
There are even fewer risks in Mr Obama’s recent announcement that he may send extra troops to the Mexican border to curb violence by drug gangs. Alarmed by sensational television coverage—for example, a CNN correspondent breathlessly asked a Mexican gangster how much it would cost to assassinate someone in America—85% of Americans support this idea.
而奥巴马先生近期发布的声明更是让风险减少,他表示可能加派军队到墨西哥边境,以抑制贩毒团伙的暴力事件。受一些耸人听闻的电视报告的惊吓—例如,一个CNN通讯记者气喘吁吁的问一个墨西哥歹徒,在美国暗杀一个人需要花多少钱—85%的美国人都支持这个想法。
In general, Americans are comfortable with Mr Obama’s preference for talking to troublesome foreigners, rather than blacklisting them. But not if he starts talking to the guys who once sheltered al-Qaeda. An ABC poll last month found that 53% of Americans would oppose negotiating with the Taliban even if they agreed to suspend attacks on American and Afghan forces. And Americans have little faith in global talking-shops: nearly two-thirds think the UN does a poor job of tackling the problems it faces.
总之,对奥巴马先生宁愿同那些麻烦的外国人谈话也不远把他们拉入黑名单的做法,美国人感觉很满意。但,如果他要开始同那些包庇基地组织的家伙谈话,就不是这样了。上个月ABC的一项民意测试发现,53%的美国人反对同塔利班谈判,即使他们同意停止攻击美国和阿富汗军队。而且美国人丝毫不相信国际谈话商店:近三分之二人认为联合国在处理问题方面做的很糟。 |
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