|
 
- 帖子
- 102
- 积分
- 28
- 原创译作
- 16 篇
- 注册时间
- 2007-5-6
|
[2009.02.05]Economic policy:Can the centrists hold?中间派能站稳吗？
本帖最后由 dujingqiang 于 2009-2-10 12:56 编辑
Economic policy
经济政策
Can the centrists hold?
中间派能站稳吗？
Feb 5th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
As politics reverts to its usual fractious state, Barack Obama's centrist advisers, the unions and the angry left in Congress are all competing for his ear
当各大政派的针锋相对再次白热化，巴拉克·奥巴马得在中间派的顾问，工会和暴躁的左派议会间作出权衡
Reuters
IT HAS been a rough few days for Barack Obama. He has lost, in Tom Daschle (see article and Lexington) a close ally on whom he depended for his health-reform plans. Mr Daschle is now the third of his planned appointees to fall by the wayside; Mr Obama’s carefully cultivated image of competence and coolness is starting to fray. Worse, as The Economist went to press the new president’s vast stimulus plan (now worth around $900 billion) faced the prospect of substantial change if it is to pass the Senate where Republicans hold a blocking minority; it was rammed through the House without attracting a single Republican vote in favour.
过去的这几天奥巴马过得可不容易。他刚失去了其亲密战友Tom Daschle, 奥巴马本来指望着他来实现其医疗改革的大业。Mr Daschle已经是总统计划好的任命中第三个栽倒的了。奥巴马精选塑造的冷静干练的形象已经开始黯淡。更糟的是，截至《经济学人》发稿前，新总统的宏大刺激计划如果想在拥有参议院通过，很可能需要作出大量的修改，因为那里占少数的共和党足以阻碍其的通过（民主党还差两票才能拥有三分之二的多数，译注），而之前在众议院，在没有一个共和党议员赞成的情况下，靠着人多力量大已经通过了该计划。
But the re-emergence of the usual partisan sound and fury obscures a much more interesting question. Mr Obama amassed a solidly liberal record as a senator, then moved towards the centre during the campaign and surrounded himself with centrist advisers. Is his party now dragging him back to the left?
但随着惯常的党徒们的喧嚣与骚动再次登台，一个更有趣的话题被掩盖了。奥巴马作参议员时保持了一个坚定的自由主义者的记录，而在竞选中他选择了走中间路线，并且找来了几乎是清一色的中间派智库。但民主党现在要把他拽回左派去吗？
It is early days, but those who see a leftward tilt have a case. On January 29th Mr Obama gave a clue to his priorities by making the first bill he signed into law the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Restoration Act, which gives workers substantially more time to file suits claiming pay discrimination on the basis of sex, race or religion. The US Chamber of Commerce claimed it would “dramatically expand the number of frivolous and otherwise questionable” lawsuits against employers. The next day the president, in front of invited union representatives, signed executive orders making it harder for federal contractors to discourage union activities and requiring them to offer jobs to the previous contractor’s employees. “I do not view the labour movement as part of the problem; to me it’s part of the solution,” he declared.
尽管为时还早，但那些看出左倾苗头的人也不无理由。1月29日，奥巴马签署了第一个法律议案：Lilly Ledbetter公平待遇修正案，向大家传递了其优先关注的问题的线索。该法案给予了员工更充分的时间对因性别，种族或宗教原因而造成的待遇歧视提起诉讼。美国商会表示这会“大量增加毫无必要或是动机不纯的”针对雇主的诉讼。第二天，总统当着受邀的工会代表的面签署了一份行政命令，让联邦承包商（指那些与联邦政府订立合同，提供补给，服务或实验、发展或研究工作的个人或实体。译注）更难阻碍工会的活动并要求其为前承包商的雇员提供工作。“我不认为工人运动是问题的一部分，我认为这倒是解决了一部分问题。”
Along with these pro-labour gestures came a series of broadsides against Wall Street. On January 29th Mr Obama attacked as “shameful” and the “height of irresponsibility” the $18.4 billion in bonuses that Wall Street bankers collected last year when their firms were receiving federal aid. On February 4th he announced that executives of companies receiving “exceptional” aid (there are currently only three such) would be restricted to $500,000 a year in pay. Earlier, Larry Summers (pictured above with the president), Mr Obama’s usually reliably centrist chief economic adviser, had told Congress that banks receiving additional bail-out money would face restrictions on mergers and dividends. Healthy banks would have to “increase lending above baseline levels”, a stricture that could lead to more bad loans.
这一系列亲工人的表态的同时，新总统还对华尔街展开了新一轮的抨击。1月29号，奥巴马向那些捧回了184亿美元年终奖的华尔街银行家们开炮，称其“无耻”，“不负责任至极”，要知道他们的银行是还在吃联邦补助。2月4号他宣布那些接受“额外”资金援助的公司高管（现在仅三家）的年薪将不得超过50万美元。而早先，奥巴马最信赖的中间派首席经济顾问拉里·萨默斯（上图中即其与总统一起）在向议会报告时提到接受额外补助资金的银行在兼并与红利发放上将受到一定限制。而那些状况良好的银行则必须“在基准利率以上增加借贷”，但这一政策收紧极有可能造成更多的不良贷款。
Free-traders shuddered when, on January 22nd, Tim Geithner—then the nominee for treasury secretary but now confirmed in the job—accused China of manipulating its currency to gain a trade advantage. Whether it really does is debatable (see article), and his accusation antagonised China while stoking the fires of protectionism.
而当新当选的财政部长蒂姆·盖特纳——他当时还只是获得提名——指责中国操纵货币以提高其贸易竞争力的言论则着实让自由贸易者们打了个冷颤。这一论断是否站得住脚尚有待商榷，但他无疑激怒了中国，也加剧了贸易保护主义抬头的可能。
Still, there is less to all this than meets the eye. The Lilly Ledbetter Act more or less restores (though partly strengthens) the rights of aggrieved workers that a Supreme Court ruling circumscribed in 2007. Similarly, the Obama orders affecting federal contractors simply reversed Bush decisions, restoring the 1990s status quo.
当然，这一系列动作的实际效果并没有其表现的那么大。Lilly Ledbetter法案多多少少维护了工人们的权利（尽管只是部分加强），他们自从2007年最高法院的一次裁决（指Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 550 U.S. 618 (2007), 当时最高法院大法官Alito宣布以5：4的勉强多数赞成：若歧视待遇诉讼的追诉期超过180天，则雇主将免于相关的法律诉讼。译注）以来就愤愤不平。同样，奥巴马的政令对联邦承包商的影响也只是把布什的政策掉个头，回归到上世纪90年的状态。
Mr Geithner’s blast at China was a restatement of Mr Obama’s campaign position, and was buried in 102 pages of written answers to senators vetting his confirmation. It appears that his answer was prepared hastily, and administration officials have since played it down. And Mr Summers’s promise to judge banks against lending baselines was porous enough to allow considerable discretion in assessing whether a bank is lending enough.
盖特纳对中国的抨击重申了奥巴马竞选时的立场，相关内容也涵盖在其针对参议员对其上任进行审查的102页的书面答复中。现在来看他的回答有些仓促，而政府官员也刻意淡化了此事。而萨默斯关于将以银行贷款基准来评价银行的承诺使得评价银行是否发放了足够贷款可以有相当大的灵活性。
The stimulus bill is itself a mishmash of Mr Obama’s progressive priorities and short-term expedience. In keeping with long-standing promises, it offers some $140 billion in “Making Work Pay” tax credits, worth up to $1,000 to families earning less than $150,000. Like his restrictions on executive pay, this will tilt the distribution of income away from the very rich. On the other hand, its health-care assistance to the poor and unemployed are piecemeal and temporary, designed for quick impact, not as a down-payment on Mr Obama’s more sweeping ambitions (see article)
这项刺激计划本身是一个奥巴马逐一实现的重点目标与短期权益之计的大杂烩。为了兑现其早已许下的承诺，该计划拿出了1400亿提供“让工作交税”的税收抵免，相当于年收入在15万美元以下家庭每家可获得1000美元。与前面提到的高管限薪一样，这也会使收入分配向中产及以下阶层倾斜。另一方面，其对于穷人和失业证的医疗保障援助分期发放，且是暂时性的，为的就是迅速见效。奥巴马的雄心壮志并不指望靠在这上面的投入来实现。
Mr Obama made great show of his commitment to public infrastructure but the package spends almost as much on cash grants to states and the unemployed largely because this money can be spent quickly with a relatively large impact on gross domestic product (see table). It also includes a sprinkling of business tax cuts, in part to tempt Republicans to vote for it.
在兑现其公共基础设施建设的承诺上，奥巴马的演出可圈可点。但各州以及失业者上的现金补助所花费的费用几乎与在公共基础设施上的投入一样多。因为这些钱的支出将很快，并对国内生产总值产生巨大的影响（见图表）。而且这还包括一些点儿商业税的减免，以哄骗一些共和党人对其投赞成票。
But the real litmus tests for Mr Obama are still to come. Labour’s priority is the “Employee Free Choice Act”, which would allow unions to organise without a secret ballot. Business is fiercely opposed. Mr Obama supported it as a candidate. But last month he told the Washington Post, “If we’re losing half a million jobs a month, then there are no jobs to unionise, so my focus first is on those key economic priority items.
但对奥巴马的真正考验还未到来。工人们关切的首要重点是“员工自由选择法案”，其将允许工人在没有无记名投票的情况下就组建工会。商界自然对其坚决反对。奥巴马作为总统候选人时是支持该法案的，但上个月他告诉华盛顿邮报：“如果我们一个月就有50万人失业，那都没人来组建工会了，所以我的重心将首先放在那些最关键的经济议题上”
Whether Mr Obama has buried his past scepticism about trade will be revealed by whether he forces Congress to remove “Buy American” provisions from the fiscal stimulus bill; he has already persuaded the Senate (though not the House) to water them down. Federal procurement policies already include some provisions of this sort; the law would extend them to iron, steel, uniforms and potentially any manufactured products in projects paid for with stimulus money.
奥巴马是否会强制国会删除财政刺激计划中的“买美国货”这一条款则将告诉我们，其过去对贸易的怀疑态度是否有所改变。他已经说服参议院（尽管不是众议院）作出相应改进。联邦采购政策里面已经有了类似的条款，而这一计划将将其扩展至钢铁，制服和任何该计划资金将会购买的产品领域。
Gary Hufbauer and Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute, a think tank, think they would create just 9,000 jobs while potentially costing far more through retaliation. Mr Obama said he opposes provisions that violate World Trade Organisation rules or “signal protectionism”. But if the provisions stay, will he veto the bill?
彼得森国际经济研究所——美国的一所智库——的Gary Hufbauer 和Jeffrey Schott认为该条款只能创造9000个工作，而其将在邻国的报复性政策中损失得多得多。奥巴马说他反对任何违背世界贸易组织的“明显贸易保护主义”规则的条款。但如果该条款保留了下来，他会否行使其否决权呢？
Another test will be whether the Treasury formally brands China a currency manipulator in a few months’ time. On fiscal policy, the president has yet to explain how the budget deficit, which this year will be the largest as a share of GDP since 1945, will be reined in, or how he will contain health and pension spending on the old. He has promised a “fiscal responsibility summit” to tackle those questions.
另一个考验将是财政部是否会在未来几个月正式将中国列为货币操纵者。在财政政策上，总统先生还得解释今年的财政赤字——其占GDP的比重将是1945年以来的最高值——将如何得到有效控制，或者他将如何保证医疗和养老金的发放。他已表示将召开“财政责任峰会”来解决这些问题。
Mr Obama continues to seek sensible economic advice. It was emblematic of George Bush’s low regard for economists that in 2003 he moved the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the administration’s in-house think-tank, from the White House complex to a drab office building a block away. Mr Obama has moved it back. Each morning he gets a memo prepared the previous night by the CEA and the Treasury, then spends about 30 minutes with his economic team. In regular attendance are Mr Summers, Mr Geithner, Peter Orszag (the budget director) and Christina Romer, who chairs the CEA.
奥巴马依然在寻找有切实可行的经济建议。布什对轻视经济学家世人皆知，一个重要标志是其在2003年将作为政府内部智库的经济顾问委员会（CEA）从白宫搬到了一个街区外的一栋办公楼里。而奥巴马将其搬了回来。每天早上，他都会得到一份前天晚上由CEA和财政部共同准备的备忘录，并花上近半个小时与其经济团队讨论。通常与会者有萨默斯，盖特纳，Peter Orszag（管理及预算办公室主任）和CEA的主席Christina Romer。
Mr Obama also continues to fill his administration with highly-regarded technocrats. They are said to include Gene Sperling, a former economic adviser to Bill Clinton; David Cutler, a Harvard health-care economist; Peter Henry, a Stanford University economist and advocate of free international capital movements; Jeremy Stein, a Harvard economist specialising in corporate finance; and Diana Farrell, who headed the think-tank affiliate of McKinsey. Joining Ms Romer on the council are Cecilia Rouse, a labour expert from Princeton, and Austan Goolsbee, a long-serving Obama adviser now grappling with the foreclosure crisis.
奥巴马还在继续为其政府添加德高望重的专家们。据说这其中将包括前克林顿的经济顾问Gene Sperling，哈佛研究医疗保障的经济学家David Cutler，斯坦福倡导国际资本自由流动的经济学家Peter Henry，哈佛专攻公司财务的经济学家Jeremy Stein,和麦肯锡下属的智库的头头Diana Farrell。而在CEA中除了Romer,还有劳工专家Cecilia Rouse和奥巴马的老参谋Austan Goolsbee，他最近忙于解决丧失抵押品赎回权（是指抵押人（贷款者）未能履行对
抵押承担的义务时，可以使抵押人赎回抵押物的权利被拒绝的法律规定。译注）的危机。
Mr Obama once called himself a “blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.” In the coming months, the world will have a chance to decide which image of Mr Obama is the right one.
奥巴马曾将自己比作一幅“持不同政见的人投射其观点的黑屏”。而在未来的几个月里，世界将会知道，哪个奥巴马才是他们想要的救世主。
|
|
新手必读
ECO 招聘启事
积累
现金
本周之星
奖励译文
发表于 2009-2-9 01:47
| 
发表于 2009-2-9 10:33
| 
