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[2013.05.25] 欧元危机之梦游人

2013-5-25 07:32| 发布者: migmig| 查看: 30802| 评论: 9|原作者: fsz

摘要: 在亟需刺激的欧元区,没有消息就是坏消息。
欧元危机

梦游之人

在亟需刺激的欧元区,没有消息就是坏消息

May 25th 2013 | From the print edition



或许你错过了这个新闻,但欧盟确实在本周举行了一次峰会。周三,当各国领导人享用了丰盛的工作午餐后,他们把剩下的半天时间都用在了能源与税收等重量级问题上。去年那段焦头烂额、被欧元即将解体的话题纠缠不放的日子已经一去不复返了。如今,欧洲领导人注意到,欧元区的大多数国家都在进行改革,一些南欧国家的竞争力也正处于恢复当中。从潘多拉的盒子中被释放出来的国债市场重新回到它应该呆的地方。股票市场在过去的一年中已上升了25%。在欧洲,没有人假装生活是安逸的,人人都知道艰难的工作和牺牲还在等着他们。但是无论如何,危机的最坏时刻总算是平安地过去了。

这是一个自欺欺人的童话,就连那些被欧洲传奇之瓦格纳部分搞得身心疲惫的人(谁不是这样呢?)也愿意迫不及待地去相信她。不幸的是,欧元危机已成过去的想法是一个危险的幻觉。实际上,欧元区领导人正在梦游中穿越一片经济的荒原。


快看,有人在梦游

欧元区经济刚刚承受了连续第六个季度的GDP萎缩。萎靡乏力正在传染给欧元区核心国家,芬兰与荷兰的经济双双在第一季度出现萎缩。零售额呈现出下跌态势,超过12%的失业率处于历史高位——每四个西班牙人中就有一人以上没有工作。尽管各国都在竭力消减开支,但政府赤字依然居高不下。国家、企业和家庭仍然背负着沉重的债务。银行资本金充足率达不到要求,国际债权人对自己尚未被确认的损失放心不下。尽管官方利率处于低位,南欧的企业仍在经历着苛刻的信贷紧缩。所有这些问题不仅造成了当前的经济困境,而且还正在吞噬人们对于未来的增长预期。虽说欧元区不一定会倒塌,但布鲁塞尔的平静所传达出来的复苏信号远不如衰退那么强烈。


出于为所有人利益着想的考虑,欧元区领导人必须要把自己从昏睡中唤醒。他们必须意识到,倘若不采取行动,欧元区将面临滞涨或者解体——或者两者兼而有之。

在危机已经爆发了数年之后,该做什么已经不言而喻。当前的紧要任务是切断银行与虚弱到无法再支撑他们的政府之间的联系。欧盟在去年同意建立银行业联盟,其目的正在于此。但是,随着压力减轻,该联盟已经落入技术细节的陷阱,并且还在应当为银行减记多少历史债务——换句话说就是,德国、芬兰和荷兰应当拿出多少钱替别人的错误而买单——这一原则性问题上喋喋不休。拖延的做法是非常要命的。欧洲银行需要利用一切方法筹集资本金。美国的复苏之所以走在欧洲前面,不仅仅是因为美国人不像欧洲人那样刻板,而且还因为美国在拯救银行时动作迅速,从而使得他们的银行能够再次放贷。

除此之外,欧洲需要进行促进增长的改革。欧盟应当将服务行业纳入统一市场。欧盟最大的贸易伙伴——美国已经提出了一项自由贸易协定,欧盟应当努力同他们达成一致,而不是将时间花费在提出谈判底线问题上。同时,欧盟还应当通过放缓消减预算步伐、把来自核心欧元区的现金用于促进青年就业的计划以及为外围国家的中小企业进行投资等办法缓和紧缩政策。

人们清楚,当前这种无所作为的状态不是因为没有事情去做,而是因为缺乏干实事的意愿。这种脱节现象是由多方面的原因所造成的。其中部分原因在于,德国将在11月份进行大选,而这个国家是几乎所有欧洲现行政策的主要推动者;但更深层次的原因是因为,欧洲各国选民对各自国家的政客以及欧盟政客的不满正在日益加深。在法国,弗朗索瓦·奥朗德总统已经因丑闻而陷入困境,同时他的不支持率也达到了创纪录的24%。皮尤研究中心的一项最新调查显示,在法国选民中,表示看好欧盟的比例已经从2012年的60%降到了如今的41%,甚至比对欧盟持怀疑态度的英国还要低。在意大利,经济依旧在衰退中挣扎,组成一个支持改革的联合政府似乎也是一件不可能的事情。虽说如此,但是选民们仍对单一货币抱有希望:在希腊,尽管他们在危机中的遭遇超过任何一个欧盟国家,但是仍有70%的选民支持留在欧元区。在过去的几年中,希腊、爱尔兰、西班牙和荷兰等国都进行过决定欧元命运的投票,但投票结果无一不是支持留在欧元区。

这就是无所作为的原因:选民一方面想要欧元区保持统一,另一方面又不愿意支持把他们从危机中拉出来所需要的艰难改革。

过去,是债券市场迫使政客们必须面对这种矛盾;是金融恐慌的威胁让欧元区领导人在黎明到来之前才敲定救助协议和改革承诺。但是,自欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉承诺,“尽一切可能”保护欧元区免于崩溃以来,金融市场一直就处于被麻醉的状态之中。因为投机者明白,欧洲央行的资产负债表从理论上来说,可以无限地承接单一货币。对赌单一货币解体,至少从一开始来说就意味着惨重的损失。

警钟

在为欧元区争取时间这一点上,德拉吉的做法是正确的。同时,用多种工具武装欧洲央行以压制投机,德拉吉也没有错。问题在于,政客们仍在把大把的时间都浪费在有序改革的机会上面。乐观派认为,当德国大选结束,其领导人获得进行欧元区改革的授权时,一切都会好起来。但是,德国既不愿意做领头羊,也不情愿为欧洲其他国家再多掏钱。除此之外,奥朗德的困境意味着,始终都是欧洲进化核心的法德关系已经不再起作用了。

如果欧元区领导人踉跄前行,结局会怎样呢?那么,欧洲就会像日本那样,在未来数年中都处于阴影之下,其代价将是幻想破灭,社会枯萎,民不聊生。但是,欧元区也有同日本不一样的地方:她不是一个有向心力的联盟。只要滞涨和衰退对民主制度存在着威胁,欧元区就始终存在着“墙倒众人推”致命风险。如果这些梦游之人还关心这个货币体系和他们的民众的话,他们就必须从梦中醒来。
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引用 hazellq 2013-5-24 16:43
Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.
投机者们知道,不看好单一货币就意味着要准备承担所谓的欧洲央行庞大的救助投入,而这,至少在起初,预示着巨大的损失。
bet against 是下注(某事)不会赢       take on我查了一下,有接纳,承担,呈现等意思,我个人觉得这儿有像接纳


But German reluctance either to lead or to pay for the rest of Europe runs deeper than that.
但是,德国既不愿意做领头羊,也不情愿为欧洲其他国家再多掏钱

但是德国现在不情愿做领头羊,也不情愿再为其它国家提供援助不仅仅是因为大选

前面好多地方翻译的好好,膜拜啦!

引用 danho 2013-5-25 01:49
也是我想翻译的文章,不过楼主已经完成了。

有下面这几个地方看起来不通畅,尝试着提供几个修改意见。

and those worn down by the Wagnerian proportions of the euro saga (who isn't?)
那些在这次欧洲"传奇"中被搞得身心疲惫的瓦格纳主义者(谁又不是呢?)

Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.

投机者明白,欧洲央行的资产负债表从理论上来说,可以无限地承接单一货币。看淡欧元,至少在一开始是要承受惨重的损失。

同时也可以这样翻译,如果上面的过于隐晦。
由于技术上欧洲央行可以无限吸纳欧元空头,所以投机者明白,看淡欧元要遭受惨重的损失,至少在初期是这样的。


when its leaders will have a mandate for euro-zone reform.
欧元区改革成为其领导人的法定任务时,
引用 fsz 2013-5-25 02:00
danho 发表于 2013-5-25 01:49
也是我想翻译的文章,不过楼主已经完成了。

有下面这几个地方看起来不通畅,尝试着提供几个修改意见。


那么and those worn down by the Wagnerian proportions of the euro saga 中的proportions怎么理解?关键是Wagnerian代表了什么含义?能否指教一下?

mandate :A command or an authorization given by a political electorate to its representative. 所以你的看法不敢苟同。

Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.

投机者明白,欧洲央行的资产负债表从理论上来说,可以无限地承接单一货币。看淡欧元,至少在一开始是要承受惨重的损失。

同时也可以这样翻译,如果上面的过于隐晦。
由于技术上欧洲央行可以无限吸纳欧元空头,所以投机者明白,看淡欧元要遭受惨重的损失,至少在初期是这样的。


太好了。多谢!
引用 danho 2013-5-25 02:24
呵呵,很诚恳的告诉你,
我不知道什么是Wagnerian....
当然了,你问了之后我查了一下,Richard Wagner是一个著名的歌剧家,很有影响力,虽然没影响到我。。
风格多变,争议颇多。不过我真的不懂音乐歌剧,所以具体他是个什么风格,有些什么争议,我还是不懂。
这个位置的意思大概是在欧洲这个危机中,其中有那么一系列事件,演绎得颇具Wagner风格?
作者太有文化,没打算让我看懂。我也就只能理解到这个程度了.

不过mandate这个东西我懂的, 比如我去市政府,找里面的某个部门索要一份文件,他跟我打官腔不给我,我就说, "it's your mandate to release it",他基本上就会马上给我了。
引用 zhouweiwei 2013-5-26 11:40
赞!
有几个问题与您探讨:
1、我看文中有两处译者都是把stagnation(停滞)翻译成(stagflation)滞胀,二者意思不太一样。滞胀全称停滞性通货膨胀(Stagflation),“滞”是指经济增长停滞,“胀”是指通货膨胀。在经济学,特别是宏观经济学中,特指经济停滞(Stagnation)与高通货膨胀(Inflation),失业以及不景气同时存在的经济现象。
引用 喻峰 2013-5-28 12:58
引用 katherine_zhang 2013-5-28 18:38
1) “those worn down by the Wagnerian proportions of the euro saga ”
   是否可以理解為“那些被歐元‘傳奇’最跌宕起伏的章節弄得身心俱疲的人”?

2)“America has recovered before Europe not just because it has been less austere, but also because it rapidly sorted out its banks so that they could lend again ”
“...不仅仅是因为美国沒有採取欧洲那样緊縮的措施,还因为美国迅速整頓國內銀行,从而使得它们能够再次放贷。”

3)“同时他的支持率也跌到创纪录的24%”;

4)“在希腊,尽管他们在危机中承受的痛苦超过任何一个欧盟国家”;

5)“Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.”
    “因为投机者明白,看衰歐元就意味著要承擔歐洲央行理論上那看似無底洞般的負債--而這樣做,至少從一開始就意味著慘重的損失。”

6) “The trouble is that the politicians are squandering the chance for orderly reform.”
   我的理解是“問題在於,政客們正在虛擲進行有序改革的時機”

每次都把你的譯文當範文看,當真功力深厚。以上僅供探討。
引用 dawnsha 2013-5-30 19:17
老师好,在参考您的基础上,我也试着将这篇文章译了一下,毫无疑问,错误肯定是有的,不仅仅是因为我的英语功底,可能还有一些文化层面的东西,没有看懂。不过无论如何,我翻也翻了,就贴在下面,请老师过目下。那一句Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.”是真心的不懂,看了中文也不懂,自然译文也是蒙的,烦请帮助分析一下,Dawnsha童鞋先谢谢了。

The euro crisis 欧洲债务危机

The sleepwalkers 梦游者

In the euro zone, desperately in need of a boost, no news is bad news

欧元区的国家不顾一切的谋求发展,对他们来说,没有进步就是退步。

May 25th 2013

YOU may have missed it, but the European Union held a summit this week. Taking in a nutritious working lunch, Europe’s prime ministers, presidents and chancellors devoted half of Wednesday to weighty issues of energy and taxation. Gone are the panic-stricken sessions of last year, dogged by talk of the euro’s imminent failure. Today, Europe’s leaders note, reform is under way across most of the euro zone and some southern European countries are regaining their competitiveness. The government-debt market is back in its box, where it belongs. And over the past year share prices are up by a quarter. Nobody could pretend that life is easy; Europeans understand that hard work and sacrifices lie ahead. But the worst of the crisis is now safely in the past.

欧盟峰会于本周三召开,各国领导人抽出半天时间汇聚一堂。他们一边吃着营养午餐,一边讨论能源,税收等重大问题。然而,场外的平头老百姓对这场峰会却不甚关注。去年,有关欧元即将崩溃的谣言传得满天飞,谢天谢地,这一段心惊肉跳的时期总算是挨过去了。各国领导人在此次峰会上指出,欧元区的大多数国家正在进行如火如图的改革,南欧的一些国家已经恢复了当年的竞争力。国债市场有所收敛并逐渐回复正常。股票市场在过去的一年中上涨了25%。人人都知道生存不易,在前进的道路上,他们必须努力付出,勇于牺牲。但是无论如何,最糟糕的日子总算是平平安安的过去了。

It is a reassuring tale, and those worn down by the Wagnerian proportions of the euro saga (who isn’t?) are eager to believe it. Unfortunately, the idea that the euro is yesterday’s problem is a dangerous figment. In reality, Europe’s leaders are sleepwalking through an economic wasteland.

就像一个传奇故事,欧洲走出了金融危机,这个故事让人们的心灵得到了蔚籍。饱受金融危机之苦的人们迫不及待的相信了这个结局。但是——很不幸,这是假的——这种说法只不过是一个臆想,并且会带来严重后果。事实上,欧元区的领导人正两眼一抹黑的走在茫茫的经济荒原。

Someone call a somnambulance, quick
快看,有人在梦游

The euro-zone economy has just endured a sixth successive quarter of shrinking GDP. The malaise is spreading to core countries including Finland and the Netherlands, which both contracted in the first quarter. Retail sales are falling. Unemployment, above 12%, is a record—with more than one in four Spaniards out of work (see article). In spite of savage spending cuts, government deficits are persistent and high. The sum of government, household and company debt is still excessive. Banks are undercapitalised and international lenders worry about their as-yet-unrecognised losses. Although official interest rates are low, firms in southern Europe are suffering a cruel credit crunch. All this is causing economic hardship today and eating away at the prospects for growth tomorrow. The euro zone may not be about to collapse, but the calm in Brussels is not so much a sign of convalescence as of decay.

欧元区刚刚经历了连续第六个季度GDP的萎缩。不景气的经济逐渐向核心国扩散,芬兰和荷兰双双在第一季度出现萎缩。零售业下滑,失业率创纪录的超过12%,每四个西班牙人就有一个多点的人失业。尽管大力缩减开支,政府的财政赤字依然顽固的居高不下。无论是政府,公司还是家庭,人人背负着巨额债务。银行投入不足,外国的债权人对目前无法估量的损失忧心忡忡。尽管官方的利率不高,南欧的一些国家仍然经历着无情的信用紧缩——经济危机应时而生。它们残食着未来的繁荣和发展。欧元区也许不会一下子垮掉,但是风平浪静的布鲁塞尔还是让人们却感到衰退(的可能)大于复苏。

For everyone’s sake, Europe’s leaders must shake themselves out of their lethargy. They must grasp that if they do not act, the euro zone faces stagnation or break-up—possibly both.

时不待我,为了大家的明天,欧元区的领导人必须警醒了。他们必须树立这样的意识,如果自己再不作为,整个欧元区的经济将会停滞,欧盟亦有可能崩溃,极有可能两种情况同时发生。

After years of crisis, the to-do list is clear. The urgent task is to sever the ties between banks and governments too feeble to support them. That was the aim of the banking union agreed on last year. But, as the pressure has eased, the union has become ensnared in technicalities and a fundamental argument about how much historic bank debt, if any, should be dumped on it—how much, in other words, Germans, Finns and Dutch should bear the burden of other people’s mistakes. This delay is highly damaging. Europe’s banks need funds by whatever means. America has recovered before Europe not just because it has been less austere, but also because it rapidly sorted out its banks so that they could lend again (seeCharlemagne).

经济危机,历经数载,应该如何应对,人人皆是心知肚明。切断银行和政府的关联是当务之急,因为这种关联太过无力,无以为继。尽管去年银行业还认为政府应该和银行业联手,但是如今,金融危机紧张形势渐缓,(这种政策)反而制约了银行业的发展。银行业到底有多少历史性债务需要清算(如果银行业确有历史性债务的话),德国,芬兰及荷兰这三个国家还要替别人买多少单,银行业联盟正为此喋喋不休。各国应尽快就这些问题达成一致,否则会产生严重后果。欧盟急需资金——无论来自何种渠道的都无所谓。比之欧盟,美国的经济已然复苏。除了美国更为宽松的财策政策以外,美国对银行业迅速整顿,使其可以继续借贷,也功不可落。

In addition, the euro zone needs growth-boosting reform. The EU should extend the single market further into services. Instead of thinking up red lines, it should pursue a free-trade agreement on offer from the United States, its biggest trading partner. And it should ease austerity by slowing the pace of budget cuts and using cash from the core euro zone to pay for schemes to boost youth employment and investment in small and medium-sized firms in the periphery.
另外,欧元区需要大刀阔斧的改革。欧盟应该扩大其单一市场,向服务领域迈进。欧盟最大的贸易伙伴——美国已经提出建立一个自由市场的楔约,欧元区应该尽力与其达成一致,而不应在底线问题上喋喋不休。欧盟应当暂缓预算削减,投入更多资金,促进年轻人就业,增进外围中小型企业投资,这才是缓解欧洲的财政紧缩的“王道”。

Clearly, the reason for today’s inaction is not a shortage of things to do, but a shortage of the will to do them. This hiatus is partly caused by elections due in September in Germany, the prime mover in almost any European policy these days. But there is a deeper reason, too. Across Europe voters have grown resentful of both their own politicians and the EU. In France the president, Fran?ois Hollande, is paralysed by scandal and a dismal approval rating of 24%, another record (see article). A recent survey by the Pew Research Centre found that the share of French voters who say that they look favourably on the EU has fallen from 60% in 2012 to 41% now, less even than in Eurosceptic Britain. Italy is mired in recession, yet it cannot seem to muster a coherent political platform for change. At the same time, voters want to keep the single currency: 70% of them still support the euro in Greece, which has suffered more in the crisis than any other country. Over the past few years crunch votes in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands have repeatedly backed staying inside the euro zone.

毫无疑问,造成今日经济不景气的局面并非是人们无事可做,而是人们到底想不想做的问题。这种脱节的原因是多方面的,德国九月即将进行的大选,对这种脱节或多或少有着影响。德国现在已然是欧洲各国现行政策的主要推动者。除此之外,还有一些更深层次的原因——选民们对欧洲及自己本国的领导人日益不满。法国总统绯闻缠身,支持率低迷,仅24%,创下新低。Pew研究中心最近的一些调查显示,现在仅有40%的法国选民看好欧盟,而2012年这一数据是60%,英国——一个对欧盟持怀疑态度的国家,对此的调查结果也不止这么多。不景气的经济也笼罩着意大利,它甚至还拿不出一个条理清楚的政治纲领去改变这种局面。同时,人们也希望单一货币能够保留下来,希腊遭受了比其它国家更严历的经济危机,但仍有70%的人对欧元寄于厚望。过去的几年中,希腊,爱尔兰,葡萄牙,西班牙,荷兰都进行过决定欧元命运的投票,结果无一不是决定继续留在欧元区。

This is a recipe for inaction. On the one hand, voters want the euro zone to stay together. On the other, they will not back the difficult reforms needed to pull it out of the crisis.

这就是无所作为的一个原因。一方面,人们希望保留欧元区;另一方面,针对金融危机的改革困难重重,人们又不愿意支持这样的改革。

Time was when the bond markets would force politicians to face up to this contradiction. It was the threat of financial panic that kept euro-zone leaders up until dawn hammering out rescue deals and promises of reform. But the financial markets have been anaesthetised ever since Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), promised to “do whatever it takes” to protect the euro zone from collapse. Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infinite balance-sheet of the ECB—and that, at least at first, would mean heavy losses.

现在的债券市场迫使政治家去面对这种矛盾。金融恐慌使得欧元区的领导人团结在一起,他们齐心协力制定政策,他们承诺进行改革,希望以此来渡过这场危机。但是自从欧洲央行的行长德拉吉承诺尽一切可能去阻止欧元区的颓势之后,金融市场反而死气沉沉。从事投机的人心知肚明,投资单一货币,并期望以此赚钱,无疑是在替欧洲央行背负无休无止的债务——至少理论上看是这样的。这种投资从一开始就意味着巨大的损失。

Alarm bells

警钟长鸣

Mr Draghi was right to buy the euro zone time. He was also right to furnish the ECB with the tools to tamp down speculation. The trouble is that the politicians are squandering the chance for orderly reform. Optimists say that everything will be just fine after Germany’s election, when its leaders will have a mandate for euro-zone reform. But German reluctance either to lead or to pay for the rest of Europe runs deeper than that. Besides, Mr Hollande’s woes mean that the Franco-German relationship, always central to the evolution of Europe, has seized up.

为欧元区争取时间,德拉吉的所作所为的确无可厚非。欧洲央行在他的领导之下制定各项措施打压投机毫无疑问也是明智之举。但是政治家们却辜负了吉拉德的一翻美意。为了所谓的有序改革,他们浪费了大量的机会,这才是症结所在。乐观的人认为德国大选尘埃落定之时便是所有的问题终结之日,德国新的领导班子会为量身订制各项政策,使改革顺利进行。但是德国这回是铁了心了,他既不愿意充当欧洲的改革先峰,也不愿意为它们买单。除此之外,奥特朗的困境也预示着德国和法国关系出现僵持,而德法两国几乎是欧洲发展的重心。

And if euro-zone leaders stumble on? Like Japan, Europe will be under a shadow for years to come. The cost will be measured in disillusion, blighted communities and wasted lives. Unlike Japan, though, the euro zone is not cohesive. For as long as stagnation and recession tear at democracy, the euro zone risks a fatal popular rejection. If the sleepwalkers care about their currency and their people, they need to wake up.

如果欧元区的领导人踉跄前行,结局会怎样呢——会和日本一样,他会经历几年灰暗的时期。人民绝望,社会倒退,韶华逝去,这就是欧洲必须承担的不可承受之痛。另外,欧洲还缺失日本的那份民族凝聚力。经济停滞衰退影响着民主化进程,欧元区的民主面临着大范围的倒退。如果对百姓还有那么的一丝牵挂,如果对自己的货币还有那么一点的信心,昏昏欲睡的政客们,你们该该醒醒了。
引用 Candice^^ 2013-6-18 17:57
hazellq 发表于 2013-5-24 16:43
Speculators know that to bet against the single currency would be to take on the theoretically infin ...

世间有点久了,呵呵。我也觉得take on 这应该是承担的意思,而不是参考译文中"吸纳"的意思啊。至少从句子结构上看不应该是那样翻译的。蒙啊

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