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[2013.01.19] 再见,蒂莫西•盖特纳

2013-1-21 19:43| 发布者: migmig| 查看: 34673| 评论: 17|原作者: lilianxiao

摘要: 即将离职的财政部长最后一次受访《经济学人》杂志
再见,蒂莫西•盖特纳

经验教训

即将离职的财政部长最后一次受访《经济学人》杂志

Jan 19th 2013 | WASHINGTON, DC |From the print edition

快自由了。

1月14日,奥巴马总统表示,如果共和党不提高美国债务上限,那么美国市场将失控,整个国家将再次深陷危机。奥巴马政府的财政部长蒂莫西•盖特纳也在同日表示,这样的情况或许在最快不到一月之内就会发生。

但是按照原计划,现财政部长盖特纳在那时已经卸任,现任白宫幕僚长杰克•卢将接过财政部长一职。可惜的是,成千上万的人都在研究财经危机,但要是论真正与最多的危机直面搏击的话,除了盖特纳还真是寥寥无几了。在90年代,盖特纳服务于比尔•克林顿总统时期财长罗伯特•鲁宾和拉里•萨默斯时,他在这个新兴世界中处理过货币和银行危机。在2007年全球金融危机爆发的时候,他身为纽约联邦储蓄银行行长,这也就给了他在美联储的发言权,包括对贝尔斯登投资银行和保险公司美国国际集团提供紧急融资进行救助,并且做出让雷曼兄弟投行破产的决定。作为奥巴马总统的财政部长,他设计实施了压力测试,注资来稳定银行系统,同时,他的多种抵押贷款计划最终并没有过多的抑制取消抵押品赎回权的崩塌。

盖特纳在财经前线作战的生活赋予了他专属的词汇。重要的决定用他的话就是“逻辑上必然而又重要的”;好的想法是“酷的”;更好的主意就是“迷人的”;而最好的想法是“最佳而具开拓性的”;在危机之中对于计划,“聊胜于无”;不可避免的灾难面前,临时的策略就是“飞机跑道上的泡沫——有助无害(1)”;不好的结果就是“黑暗的”;改变公众看法被称作“用一场好戏”;在盖特纳的词汇中“他妈的”也是个重要用词,常作为形容词而不是动词来使用,例如:“我他妈的不知道。”



从更大的方面来说,盖特纳在面对危机时,自有一套套路准则。决策者面对的选择几乎永远都是不好的。不干涉带来的危机就是分崩离析,但是干涉,给决策者带来的就是不好的名声,甚至激怒民众。盖特纳在近期对话《经济学人》的一次采访中说到:“错误是肯定会犯的,所以你必须审时度势来看哪些错误是容易改正的。在一次危机当中,在某些时刻,你不得不决定在接下来去冒更大的风险,因为这样的摊子更容易收拾。“成功同样需要某些性格特质:不纠结在局外人将作出的评判,而能在战争的迷雾中很快的作出决定。事实上,盖特纳作为财政部长在改变公众舆论上并不擅长:他不是演讲的能手,他反感游说,面对国会,他始终不能表现的恭顺有礼。

仅由这点就使得盖特纳成为一个极端化的形象。但是自由派和民主派的评论家都认为盖特纳对于大银行及其大方,尽管是以公众作为代价。危机面前,纽约联邦储蓄银行在盖特纳掌舵时期,国会危机调查委员会集聚的事实将其在银行监理反面描绘成一个耿直坦率的形象,尤其是花旗银行。评论家指责盖特纳没有对美国国际集团的业务对手(多为大银行)强加折扣作为对这个大的保险公司的援助,同时也指责他没有将花旗这样的大银行国有化或者是使其解体。盖特纳的做法和他接下来的财经改革法在评论者眼中,只能是使得某些银行“树大而不倒”这样不好的准则成为铭刻。

盖特纳表示,美联储监管下的银行比大多数机构能够更好的抵挡危机。干预行为也成为公众的一个很好的监控手段。美联储和财政部在投入到大型银行和美国国际集团的资金上也大有获利。事实上,一些美国国际集团的股东在因为救援案中的繁重条款起诉联邦政府。多亏了2009年盖特纳针对银行推出的压力测试和资本重整,这些银行都重返私营,更好的资本化并开始放贷。复苏仍旧迟缓,但是比较起其他经济产业的复苏来说已经很不错了。

盖特纳无保留承认他的干预政策确实孕育了道德风险,但是如果说就因为这个原因而拖延不前,可能会危机加剧,到时候会需要更大的干预。他说:“这样你最后会面临更多的风险亟待解决,在未来也很可能会产生更大的道德风险。你必须去设计一些危机应对策略来最大程度减缓道德风险,然后改变一些规则,继续向前,去解决那些自己引起的问题。”因此,有了多德弗兰克银行业改革法案。法案在国会的进展令人恼火的长,又相当复杂。但是它还是保留了盖特纳认为极重要的特点。它创造了挽救那些走下坡路的公司同时限制政府审慎来让它们保持为运营企业的机制。通过加强资金和流动性,来再整个财经系统内进行缓冲,这项法案允许了决策者对“由一个机构引起的传染病熟视无睹”。

多德弗兰克法案保证了盖特纳在美国财经系统的印记。美国的财经又是另一个问题。在他任期的每一年,财政预算赤字都超过1万亿美元。鉴于现今的经济疲软,当前的巨额赤字没有那么令人困扰了。盖特纳表明这仅需要占额GDP的0.75%支出削减和税收增长来稳定接下来十年内债务占GDP的比值。

更扰人心的是缺少创造稳定的计划。原因有很多:这并不是奥巴马总统的优先任务,同共和党的和谈也因他们各自的意愿的大区别而以失败告终。结果就是一系列在最后时刻落锤定音的协议,和在2011年夏,在提高债务上限前政府的现金短缺而来临的准危机。

2011年,盖特纳回忆,他“一次又一次提醒人们,在现在的欧洲崩溃局面下或者是面临一次绝对的国会僵局并且他们让我们拖欠债务的情况下,我们没有任何有意义的能力来保护我们的经济不受这些结果的影响。这就是美国体制的结构方式,国会掌握全部火力,而行政机构几乎没有任何实质火力。”

这个局面不会改变。今年也将是奥巴马总统和国会纠纷不断的情形。胜负的结果更多的取决于谁在公众意见中占优,而不仅仅取决于竞争提案的优点。如果发展不顺利,那么这个国家会再次需要一位危机解决师,但是如果幸运的话,盖特纳的危机解决技能将不再被需要。


注释(1):关于飞机跑道上的泡沫,与所说的泡沫跑道。
   
       大家知道,飞机着陆时全靠起落架下面的橡胶轮子,在坚硬的水泥跑道上滑跑着陆。一旦飞机的起落架操纵失灵,飞机就只能“匍匐”着陆了。这样,由于机身与不光滑的水泥跑道之间摩擦力很大,会使飞机起火--翻斤头--最终机毁人亡。所以,当起落架发生故障时,飞机只能选择水面或平坦的田野着陆。       为了避免意外的飞机失事,法国科学家试制成功一种非常安全可靠的泡沫飞机跑道,并在法国图卢兹市的一个机场上,成功地完成了一次泡沫飞机跑道的软着陆试验。这种泡沫跑道长1500米,宽10米,厚度只有几厘米。在飞机软着陆之前,一辆专门的汽车在10分钟内用一种能产生泡沫的水溶液在飞机即将着陆的水泥跑道上临时铺造一条泡沫跑道,从而使一架大型客机在不使用起落架的情况下安全着陆。这次利用泡沫进行飞机软着陆的试验证明,大型客机进行这种机动性着陆具有高度可靠性。




From the print edition: United States
打印版 |  美国

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最新评论

引用 xuexue34 2013-1-20 14:06
Tim说得不错,两害相权取其轻!
引用 flysnow29 2013-1-20 21:49


^-^
During a crisis “plan beats no plan”,
在危机之中“聊胜于无”;
在危机之中计划“聊胜于无”;
引用 lilianxiao 2013-1-20 21:57
xuexue34 发表于 2013-1-20 14:06
Tim说得不错,两害相权取其轻!

取易弥补的,取易挽回的。我个人还是比较支持他的。
引用 lilianxiao 2013-1-20 22:02
flysnow29 发表于 2013-1-20 21:49
^-^
During a crisis “plan beats no plan”,
在危机之中“聊胜于无”;

咦咦,一不小心把字吞了。。 thanks!
另外,你可以看看这一段,看能不能很好的翻出来,我总觉得用中文真是难以表达原来词语的的区别。
引用 flysnow29 2013-1-20 22:12
“foam on the runway”, “跑道上的泡沫

加个飞机吧 即飞机跑道上的泡沫 再加个注能好懂些 俺刚看这里木有明白什么是跑道上的泡沫

这个网上有解释~~
http://wuxizazhi.cnki.net/Search/SAND199812017.html

飞机出现起落架故障或其他原因需要紧急着陆时,机场消防队首先必须在跑道上喷洒泡沫,这是为了减轻飞机机腹着陆擦地时的损坏程度和减少起火危险性。
引用 寻找价值 2013-1-22 15:39
如果你喜欢经济、金融等问题,那么欢迎加入财经观察群44601042
引用 grass 2013-1-22 23:17
本帖最后由 grass 于 2013-1-22 23:27 编辑

楼主翻得很好,有些地方我提一些建议,仅供参考。
1. 感觉看完全文,配图说明可能用“快解脱了”更传神一些。

2. While working in the 1990s for Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, Bill Clinton’s treasury secretaries, he dealt with currency and banking crises throughout the emerging world.
这里的emerging world应该是指经济迅速发展的新兴国家,而所指危机即上世纪九十年代的亚洲金融危机。而且盖特纳曾参与制定过针对亚洲金融危机的救援计划。

3. stress testing直译成“压力测试”没有问题。但多少会让人容易混淆,个人建议“危机测试”

4. as well as multiple mortgage schemes that ultimately did little to curb an avalanche of foreclosures.
他扩大了抵押贷款项目的种类,但最终在金融危机所引发的大量抵押房屋被银行回收面前显得无能为力。

5. an ability to make decisions quickly in the fog of war without dwelling on what outsiders are going to say.
这里的“the fog of war”个人认为是隐指“危机爆发之前”

6. Evidence gathered by the crisis commission of Congress paints an unflattering picture of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s role before the crisis, when Mr Geithner was in charge, in overseeing banks, Citigroup in particular.
国会危机调查委员会搜集的证据表明,在美国金融危机爆发之前,由盖特纳掌管期的监管银行机构,纽约联邦储备银行监管得力,对管辖内的各大银行,尤其对花旗银行更是刚正不阿。

这句话有些背景内容。美国金融危机是有由次级信贷崩盘而引发的。当是很多银行审核贷款人资质时得过且过,很多不具备贷款资质的人也能贷款买房,这直接导致了次级信贷危机。

7. Critics fault him for not imposing haircuts on AIG’s counterparties (mostly big banks) as part of the insurance company’s bail-out,
批评者挑剔地指出,作为对大型保险公司,美国国际集团的援助,盖特纳并未对其业务对象(多为大银行)提出大幅削减理赔额度的要求。

8. His actions and the subsequent financial-reform law, they say, enshrine the bad principle that some banks are “too big to fail”.
评论者眼中,盖特纳的各种做法和他接下来的财经改革法让人处处都能想到某些银行“大而不倒”,这一“金科玉律”。

9. The interventions have also been a pretty good deal for the public.
政府干预也对公众有利。

10.Indeed, some AIG shareholders are suing the federal government over the bail-out’s onerous terms.
事实上,针对救援案中一些过于苛刻的条款,一些美国国际集团的股东正准备将联邦政府告上法庭。

先看一部分,明天补上后半部分。










引用 grass 2013-1-23 12:27
1. Mr Geithner readily admits that his interventions have bred moral hazard,
盖特纳坦承,人们对他的干预政策在道德上指出了质疑

2.  “You will end up having to socialise much more risk and [create] much more future moral hazard,”
最后,你只能把更多的危险转嫁给社会大众,这会在之后引起人们对道德标准更大的质疑之声。

3.  the law allows policymakers to be almost “indifferent about contagion caused by one institution”.
这项法案使决策者对“由某一机构引起的连锁反应可以熟视无睹”。

4. Dodd-Frank guarantees that Mr Geithner has left his mark on America’s financial system.
多德弗兰克法案使盖特纳在美国财经系统留下了属于他的印记。

5. in the summer of 2011, a near-crisis as the government came within days of running out of cash before the debt ceiling was raised.
和在2011年夏,在提高债务上议案上争议过多,导致政府的现金短缺。最后时刻国会终达成协议,要么差点爆发危机。

6. Congress has all the firepower, the executive branch has almost no standing firepower.
政策决定权都在国会手里,而行政机构只有瞪眼干着急的份。
引用 yangcs2009 2013-1-23 12:59
mark it
引用 xlcally 2013-1-23 14:33
The recovery remains sluggish, but compares well with those of other economies.
复苏仍旧迟缓,但是比较起其他经济产业的复苏来说已经很不错了.

应该是其它经济体吧,不是产业
引用 lilianxiao 2013-1-24 11:41
grass 发表于 2013-1-23 12:27
1. Mr Geithner readily admits that his interventions have bred moral hazard,
盖特纳坦承,人们对他的 ...


其实这篇我觉得我翻的问题还有很多,每看一次就能发现不准的地方,即使意思对但是表达也不符合最准确的经济用语之类的。多谢指摘。继续接着改~~
引用 lilianxiao 2013-1-24 11:45
xlcally 发表于 2013-1-23 14:33
The recovery remains sluggish, but compares well with those of other economies.
复苏仍旧迟缓,但是 ...

我刚才又看了看,前面指的是银行产业的复苏,多亏了tim的一系列措施才算是recover。我觉得后面的复苏速度应该就是和本国的其他经济产业相比较的,如果是和其他经济体,那美国的银行业必然算是recover的快了吧。你觉得呢?
引用 grass 2013-1-24 13:23
lilianxiao 发表于 2013-1-24 11:41
其实这篇我觉得我翻的问题还有很多,每看一次就能发现不准的地方,即使意思对但是表达也不符合最准确的经 ...

客气了。美国版版主最近有点儿忙,我替他看看。你翻得很好了,只是一些文章需要一些背景知识而已。
引用 彼岸、理想 2013-1-24 20:37


  路过 。
引用 dawnsha 2013-2-19 19:16
老师好,最近我也试着翻译了这篇文章,和你的译文有点出入,请指点一二。
Farewell, Tim Geithner
一路走好,蒂莫西_盖特纳
Lessons learnt
经验之谈
The outgoing treasury secretary sits down with The Economist one last time
即将离任的财长最后一次接受经济学人专访
Almost free
快解脱了
IF THE Republicans do not raise the ceiling on America’s government debt, Barack Obama said on January 14th, the markets will go “haywire” and the country will plunge back into crisis. Tim Geithner, his treasury secretary, noted on the same day that this could happen in as little as a month from now.
1月14日奥巴马发表讲话:“如果共和党人再不提高债务上限,市场将会失控,美国将会重陷金融危机的泥潭。同一天,美国财长的蒂莫西-盖特纳也表示,也许仅有一月光阴,噩梦将成真,。
But if all goes according to plan, Mr Geithner will not be around by then; he will have handed the reins to Jack Lew, currently the White House chief of staff. That could be a pity. Thousands of people have studied financial crises, but it would be hard to name anyone who has actually grappled with as many as Mr Geithner (see chart). While working in the 1990s for Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, Bill Clinton’s treasury secretaries, he dealt with currency and banking crises throughout the emerging world. When the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, he was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; this gave him a key role in the Fed’s response, including the bail-outs of Bear Stearns and AIG, an insurance company, and the decision to let Lehman Brothers fail. As Mr Obama’s treasury secretary, he designed and carried out the stress tests and capital injections that stabilised the banking system, as well as multiple mortgage schemes that ultimately did little to curb an avalanche of foreclosures.
然而,就算那时噩梦真的来临,盖特纳也无需再为此焦头烂额了,因为那时财长另有其人,他就是现任的白宫参谋长Jack Lew。盖特纳的权力移交多少让人觉得有点小遗憾。许多人对金融危机进行研究,但要说谁在此领域能够做到与盖特纳并驾齐驱,这还真是不好说。1990年比尔-克林顿时期,他在时任财长的Robert Rubin 和 Larry Summers手下当差,专攻新兴世界的货币和银行危机问题。2007年全球经融危机爆发,盖特纳时任纽约美联储主席,天降大任于斯人也,他发挥了极其重要的作用——对Bear Stearns and AIG(一家保险公司)提供紧急融资进行救助,决定雷蒙兄弟公司的破产。作为奥巴马的财长,他亲力亲为,设计并实施了金融负荷实验,对银行进行资本注入使其更为稳定。与此同时,他还制订了各种形式的抵押贷款,但是这个计划却因银行取消借贷人的赎回权而显得回天无力。
Mr Geithner’s life in the trenches has produced its own vocabulary. Serious decisions are “consequential”, good ideas are “cool”, better ideas are “compelling” and the best ideas are at “the optimal frontier”. During a crisis “plan beats no plan”, jury-rigged measures in the face of unavoidable disaster are “foam on the runway”, and bad outcomes are “dark”. Managing public perceptions is called “theatre”. “Fuck” also holds a prominent place in the Geithner lexicon, usually as an adjective, not a verb, as in “I have no fucking idea.”
作为财长,盖特纳在他工作的领域创造了许多具有特色的盖氏词汇。“consequential”——认真严肃的决定;“cool”——酷毙了;“compelling”——具有创造性的奇思妙想; “the optimal frontier”——完美无缺的点子;而“plan beats no plan”则用于形容身处危机;“泡沫跑道”(foam on the runway)意指面临危机时所采取的各项应急措施,而当事情一塌湖涂时“dark”便应运而生。另外“theatre”表处理公众意见。而一句脏话——他妈的(fuck)在盖氏词典里也占据了重要一席——通常是形容词而非介词。例如:“我他妈的对那件事无能无力”。
More seriously, Mr Geithner has also developed rules of engagement for a crisis. The choices that face a policymaker are almost always bad. Don’t intervene, and you risk collapse; intervene, and you reward bad behaviour and outrage the public. “You are going to make mistakes, so you have to force yourself to decide which mistakes are easier to correct,” he told The Economist in a recent interview. “In a crisis, you get to a point where you have to decide that you’re going to risk doing too much, because it’s easier to clean that up.” Success also requires certain character traits: an ability to make decisions quickly in the fog of war without dwelling on what outsiders are going to say. Indeed, Mr Geithner is terrible at the “theatre” of being treasury secretary: he delivers speeches badly, hates lobbying, and has trouble behaving deferentially to Congress.
盖特纳同时也认真制订了金融危机处理原则。决策人的决择几乎永远都不被看好。不对市场进干预,市场有可能垮掉;但对市场进行干涉,则会惹毛公众,人们认会对你的行为不满。反正是两头不讨好,你就两害相权取其轻吧。最近在接受《经济学人》的专访时,他表示,面对危机,你处在风口浪尖,为了避免损失,有时候你不得不冒更大的风险。关键时刻,一些人格的闪光点往往能够获得成功女神的青眼——不畏流言,在晦涩凄迷中毅然果断做出抉择。作为财长,在处理公众意见的时候,盖特纳真的不是那么给力,他不善演讲,讨厌一遍又一遍的去游说公众,他桀骜不驯,即使是面对国会,依然是我行我素。
That alone would make Mr Geithner a polarising figure. But liberal and conservative critics alike consider him excessively generous to big banks at the expense of the public. Evidence gathered by the crisis commission of Congress paints an unflattering picture of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s role before the crisis, when Mr Geithner was in charge, in overseeing banks, Citigroup in particular. Critics fault him for not imposing haircuts on AIG’s counterparties (mostly big banks) as part of the insurance company’s bail-out, and for not nationalising or breaking up big banks such as Citi. His actions and the subsequent financial-reform law, they say, enshrine the bad principle that some banks are “too big to fail”.
仅此使得盖特纳成为一个极端化的人物。然而,盖特纳不顾罗普大众的利益,对银行业巨头出手大方,这一点却是毫无争议——保守派和自由派对盖特纳的(这种做法)齐声口诛笔伐。金融危机之前,盖蒂纳担任美联储主席,手握重权,各大银行——尤其是花旗银行更是在他的掌握之中。透过当时国会危机委员会厚厚的卷宗,一个我行我素,桀骜不驯的美联储主席——盖特纳跃然纸上。与美国国际集团并驾齐驱的一些银行业巨头,盖特纳对其爱护有加,反对大幅削减(这些银行业巨头的)理赔额度,如此一来,身为保险业巨头的美国国际集团将为此支付巨额保单。另外,他迟迟不将花旗银行集团收归国有,更不将其改组。评论家对(盖特纳的这种行为)深恶痛绝。他们认为盖特纳的所作所为以及随后推出的金融改革法案无疑是助纣为虐,使得一些大的银行寡头屹立不倒。
Mr Geithner says the banks supervised by the Fed withstood the crisis better than most institutions. The interventions have also been a pretty good deal for the public. The Fed and the Treasury have made a profit on the money committed to the big banks and AIG. Indeed, some AIG shareholders are suing the federal government over the bail-out’s onerous terms. Thanks to the stress tests and recapitalisation Mr Geithner forced on the banks in 2009, they are almost all back in private hands, well capitalised and lending again. The recovery remains sluggish, but compares well with those of other economies.
面对此情,盖财长自有其一套说辞。他认为美联储监管下各大银行与其它金融机构相比,更好的经受住了金融危机的考验,而普罗大众也因为自己的干涉得到很多实惠。联邦政府和财政部的投资也因为银行业巨头和AIG(美国国际集团)而获得丰厚的收益。而事实却是,AIG的一些股东正准备与美联储对簿公堂,因为盖氏对他们的救援条件实在是太过苛刻。幸亏2009年盖财长进行再资本化的压力测试,使得银行业重新由个人掌控(而非联邦政府),盖氏的重整使得整个银行业资本运行良好,贷款服务也重新开展。尽管完全恢复尚需时日,但与其它经济体相比,盖氏掌管下的银行业取得的成绩可以称之为卓尔不凡了。
Mr Geithner readily admits that his interventions have bred moral hazard, but says holding off for that reason worsens a crisis and requires even bigger interventions later. “You will end up having to socialise much more risk and [create] much more future moral hazard,” he says. “You have to design the crisis response to mitigate moral hazard to the extent you can, and then change the rules of the game going forward to undo some of the damage you’ve caused.” Hence the Dodd-Frank banking reforms. The law became maddeningly long and complex in its passage through Congress. But it retains the features Mr Geithner considers crucial. It creates a mechanism for seizing and winding down big failing firms while limiting the government’s discretion to keep them as going concerns. By reinforcing capital and liquidity buffers throughout the financial system, the law allows policymakers to be almost “indifferent about contagion caused by one institution”.
盖氏的干预政策受到道德方面的质疑,他对此直言不讳。但他认为,如果因噎厌食,危害更大,甚至导致更大的政府干预。“最后,(经济)危机导致(社会)危机,道德危机也会因此而滋生” 在其位,谋其职,作为财长,应全力积极应对(金融)危机,减少因投保人不可靠而造成的风险。然而,智者千虑,必有一失,在处理过程中难免产生一些负面影响,这时修订一些金融法律法规,挽回损失,这便是我义务所在。Dodd-Frank金融系统改革法案应运而生,经过旷日持久,繁复琐碎的种种程序,最终该方案为国会所批准。该部法案具有浓浓的盖氏风范,盖蒂纳处理金融危机种种,在些法案中均有体现。根据该方案,经营不善的大型金融机构将逐渐关、停、并、转,同时,政府在处理有关问题也不敢掉以轻心。通过一系列诸如稳定资产,减少流通资金风险的措施,决策者无须再为由某金融机构引起的大规模金融系统内部的混乱买单。
Dodd-Frank guarantees that Mr Geithner has left his mark on America’s financial system. America’s finances are another matter. The budget deficit has exceeded $1 trillion in each year of his tenure. Given the slack that persists in the economy, temporary big deficits are not that troubling. Mr Geithner says it would take spending cuts and tax increases of only about 0.75% of GDP to stabilise the debt relative to GDP over the next decade.
Dodd-Frank法案的实施,盖蒂纳对美国金融业产生了深远的影响,但美国当下的财务状况则与之相反,在盖氏的任期内,预算赤字每年超支1万亿。考虑经济疲软的因素,巨额财政赤字是暂时的,不足以影响美国经济发展。盖蒂纳认为在未来十年内,美国政府应削减开支,增加税收,此两项每年仅需达到当年GDP的0.75%,就足以使美国债务趋于稳定。
Much more troubling is the lack of a plan to produce that path to stability. The reasons are many: it has not been a priority for Mr Obama, and negotiations with Republicans have foundered on the gaping difference in their respective visions. The result has been a series of deals hammered out at the last minute and, in the summer of 2011, a near-crisis as the government came within days of running out of cash before the debt ceiling was raised.
然而,缺少一个行之有效的行动方案保证增税减支按部就班的进行,从而达到收支平衡,这很让人烦心。其原因是多方面的——奥巴马总统没有将增税减支作为工作重点;共和党内部各方各执一词,观点不一,致使协商失败。2011年夏,美国政府面临资金消耗殆尽的危险,紧要关头,一连串与之关联的协议终于一锤定音。
In 2011, Mr Geithner recalls, he “reminded people over and again, in the case of an existential Europe collapse or of a complete congressional impasse where they had forced us to default, we had no meaningful ability to protect the economy from the consequences. The way the US system is set up, Congress has all the firepower, the executive branch has almost no standing firepower.”
回首2011,盖蒂纳记得自己当时总是不停的告诫人们,欧洲面临分崩离析的危险,而美国国会(对财政部的提案)僵持不下,美国被迫拖欠债务,为此财政部也没有有效的手段去避免这种后果。美国的政治体系已然决定了国会具有决对的决策权,而相关执行部门几乎没有说话的份。
This is not about to change. This year will be dominated by continuous warfare between Mr Obama and Congress. The outcome will depend less on the merits of competing proposals than on who has the advantage in public opinion. If things go wrong, the country could again need a crisis manager. But with luck, Mr Geithner’s skills will not be needed again.
这种情形还将延续下去。奥巴马总统与国会之间的针锋相对将成为今年的热点。究竟花落谁家,取决于谁能够获得更多广大人民群众的认可,而并非提案本身所具有的优势。如果情势发展不利,美国还需金融危机处理专家来运筹帷幄。但吉星高照,美国经济终将迎来春天,盖蒂纳无须再耗尽其才去应付金融危机。
引用 lilianxiao 2013-2-22 15:50
dawnsha 发表于 2013-2-19 19:16
老师好,最近我也试着翻译了这篇文章,和你的译文有点出入,请指点一二。
Farewell, Tim Geithner
一路走好 ...

Farewell, Tim Geithner
一路走好,蒂莫西_盖特纳


Lessons learnt
经验之谈

The outgoing treasury secretary sits down with The Economist one last time
即将离任的财长最后一次接受经济学人专访(受访哪哪哪比较常见到。经济学人加书名号。)


Almost free
快解脱了


IF THE Republicans do not raise the ceiling on America’s government debt, Barack Obama said on January 14th, the markets will go “haywire” and the country will plunge back into crisis. Tim Geithner, his treasury secretary, noted on the same day that this could happen in as little as a month from now.
1
14日奥巴马发表讲话:如果共和党人再不提高债务上限,市场将会失控,美国将会重陷金融危机的泥潭。同一天,美国财长的蒂莫西-盖特纳也表示,也许仅有一月光阴,噩梦将成真。(奥巴马发表讲话,我印象中114日奥巴马是有weekly address,但是主要说了离岸外包减少和小型企业扶助,某某某表示、发表讲话、谴责、声称等等等这些词要小心,万一用大了就不好了。
一月光阴,噩梦成真,中文功底挺好的。因为我也不确定到底是直译还是意译更占优,所以照你习惯的来吧 。)


But if all goes according to plan, Mr Geithner will not be around by then; he will have handed the reins to Jack Lew, currently the White House chief of staff. That could be a pity. T for not nationalising or breaking up big banks such as Citi.ally grappled with as many as Mr Geithner (see chart). While working in the 1990s for Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, Bill Clinton’s treasury secretaries, he dealt with currency and banking crises throughout the emerging world. When the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, he was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; this gave him a key role in the Fed’s response, including the bail-outs of Bear Stearns and AIG, an insurance company, and the decision to let Lehman Brothers fail. As Mr Obama’s treasury secretary, he designed and carried out the stress tests and capital injections that stabilised the banking system, as well as multiple mortgage schemes that ultimately did little to curb an avalanche of foreclosures.
然而,就算那时噩梦真的来临,盖特纳也无需再为此焦头烂额了,(盖特纳无需焦头烂额了?意译多了一点。)因为那时财长另有其人,他就是现任的白宫参谋长Jack Lew。盖特纳的权力移交多少让人觉得有点小遗憾。(小遗憾,口语化了,因为是经济学人杂志文章的翻译,哪怕说让人觉得有点小小的遗憾?)许多人对金融危机进行研究,但要说谁在此领域能够做到与盖特纳并驾齐驱,(我觉得grapple翻出来会更好)这还真是不好说。1990年比尔-克林顿时期,他在时任财长的Robert Rubin Larry Summers手下当差,专攻新兴世界的货币和银行危机问题(emerging world应该是指经济迅速发展的新兴国家,你看看grass在我译文下面的建议,里面也有说到这个the emerging world的)2007年全球经融危机爆发,盖特纳时任纽约美联储主席,天降大任于斯人也,他发挥了极其重要的作用——Bear Stearns and AIG(一家保险公司)提供紧急融资进行救助,决定雷蒙兄弟公司的破产。作为奥巴马的财长,他亲力亲为,设计并实施了金融负荷实验,对银行进行资本注入使其更为稳定。(注资来稳定银行系统和多种抵押贷款计划,你看一下capital injection注入帮助稳定了banking system 后面的as well as multiple mortgage schemes是不是并列。)与此同时,他还制订了各种形式的抵押贷款,但是这个计划却因银行取消借贷人的赎回权而显得回天无力。
Mr Geithner’s life in the trenches has produced its own vocabulary. Serious decisions are “consequential”, good ideas are “cool”, better ideas are “compelling” and the best ideas are at “the optimal frontier”. During a crisis “plan beats no plan”, jury-rigged measures in the face of unavoidable disaster are “foam on the runway”, and bad outcomes are “dark”. Managing public perceptions is called “theatre”. “Fuck” also holds a prominent place in the Geithner lexicon, usually as an adjective, not a verb, as in “I have no fucking idea.”
作为财长,盖特纳在他工作的领域创造了许多具有特色的盖氏词汇。“consequential”——认真严肃的决定;(要不然就这些词的英文和你觉得好一点的翻译都列出来,要不然看不懂英语的人看你的翻译不仍旧是一头雾水?。)“cool”——酷毙了(good ideas没有体现出来;)“compelling”——具有创造性的奇思妙想; “the optimal frontier”——完美无缺的点子;而“plan beats no plan”则用于形容身处危机(身处危机时,计划“聊胜于无”;)泡沫跑道foam on the runway)意指面临危机时所采取的各项应急措施,而当事情一塌湖涂时“dark”便应运而生。另外“theatre”表处理公众意见。而一句脏话——他妈的(fuck)在盖氏词典里也占据了重要一席——通常是形容词而非介词(介词?是verb啊!!。)例如:我他妈的对那件事无能无力。(我觉得说我不知道比我无能为力了要好一些,因为一介财长居然说出我无能为力了?国家领导说无能为力民众会恐慌的。)
More seriously, Mr Geithner has also developed rules of engagement for a crisis. The choices that face a policymaker are almost always bad. Don’t intervene, and you risk collapse; intervene, and you reward bad behaviour and outrage the public. “You are going to make mistakes, so you have to force yourself to decide which mistakes are easier to correct,” he told The Economist in a recent interview. “In a crisis, you get to a point where you have to decide that you’re going to risk doing too much, because it’s easier to clean that up.” Success also requires certain character traits: an ability to make decisions quickly in the fog of war without dwelling on what outsiders are going to say. Indeed, Mr Geithner is terrible at the “theatre” of being treasury secretary: he delivers speeches badly, hates lobbying, and has trouble behaving deferentially to Congress.
盖特纳同时也认真制订了金融危机处理原则。(我觉得他的处理原则也算像是盖式原则。)决策人的决择几乎永远都不被看好。不对市场进干预,市场有可能垮掉;但对市场进行干涉,则会惹毛公众,人们认会对你的行为不满。反正是两头不讨好,你就两害相权取其轻吧(意译,但是真的挺好的。)。最近在接受《经济学人》的专访时,他表示,面对危机,你处在风口浪尖,为了避免损失,有时候你不得不冒更大的风险。关键时刻,一些人格的闪光点(性格特征吧,人格的闪光点有点大了,原文中没有啊)往往能够获得成功女神的青眼(青睐吧?如果意译的话,你看require就有点背忽略了。)——不畏流言,在晦涩凄迷中毅然果断做出抉择。作为财长,在处理公众意见的时候,盖特纳真的不是那么给力,(给力,和前面的小遗憾一样。哈哈)他不善演讲,讨厌一遍又一遍的去游说公众,他桀骜不驯,即使是面对国会,依然是我行我素。(你中文功底比我强多了,但是使用的时候为了能用一下咱们中文里的成语啊,俗语什么的,就一定得看跟原文语言表达的程度相不相符了,不能表现的deferentially我觉得不谦恭就差不多了,那么桀骜不驯,我行我素怎么可能走上财政议长的职位。In my humble opinion,意译的度把握好。)
That alone would make Mr Geithner a polarising figure. But liberal and conservative critics alike consider him excessively generous to big banks at the expense of the public. Evidence gathered by the crisis commission of Congress paints an unflattering picture of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s role before the crisis, when Mr Geithner was in charge, in overseeing banks, Citigroup in particular. Critics fault him for not imposing haircuts on AIG’s counterparties (mostly big banks) as part of the insurance company’s bail-out, and for not nationalising or breaking up big banks such as Citi. His actions and the subsequent financial-reform law, they say, enshrine the bad principle that some banks are “too big to fail”.
仅此使得盖特纳成为一个极端化的人物。然而,盖特纳不顾罗普大众的利益,对银行业巨头出手大方,这一点却是毫无争议——保守派和自由派对盖特纳的(这种做法)齐声口诛笔伐。金融危机之前,盖蒂纳担任美联储主席,手握重权,各大银行——尤其是花旗银行更是在他的掌握之中。(参见我译文下面grass和深巷花的评论,我也觉得是盖特纳对大银行监管得力,尤其是多花旗银行刚正不阿。)透过当时国会危机委员会厚厚的卷宗,一个我行我素,桀骜不驯的美联储主席——盖特纳跃然纸上。与美国国际集团并驾齐驱的一些银行业巨头,盖特纳对其爱护有加,反对大幅削减(这些银行业巨头的)理赔额度,如此一来,身为保险业巨头的美国国际集团将为此支付巨额保单(AIG为此支付巨额保单?我看糊涂了)。另外,他迟迟不将花旗银行集团收归国有,更不将其改组。评论家对(盖特纳的这种行为)深恶痛绝。他们认为盖特纳的所作所为以及随后推出的金融改革法案无疑是助纣为虐,使得一些大的银行寡头屹立不倒。
Mr Geithner says the banks supervised by the Fed withstood the crisis better than most institutions. The interventions have also been a pretty good deal for the public. The Fed and the Treasury have made a profit on the money committed to the big banks and AIG. Indeed, some AIG shareholders are suing the federal government over the bail-out’s onerous terms. Thanks to the stress tests and recapitalisation Mr Geithner forced on the banks in 2009, they are almost all back in private hands, well capitalised and lending again. The recovery remains sluggish, but compares well with those of other economies.
面对此情,盖财长自有其一套说辞。(信息补充的多了,译者不是应该忠实只说文章里有的么,要加的话就以注释的形式吧)他认为美联储监管下各大银行与其它金融机构相比,更好的经受住了金融危机的考验,而普罗大众也因为自己的干涉得到很多实惠。联邦政府和财政部的投资也因为银行业巨头和AIG(美国国际集团)而获得丰厚的收益。而事实却是,AIG的一些股东正准备与美联储对簿公堂,(suing the federal government 不是suing the FED因为盖氏对他们的救援条件实在是太过苛刻。幸亏2009年盖财长进行再资本化的压力测试,(再资本化的压力测试?我觉得是压力测试和资本重整吧。)使得银行业重新由个人掌控(而非联邦政府),盖氏的重整使得整个银行业资本运行良好,贷款服务也重新开展。尽管完全恢复尚需时日,但与其它经济体相比,盖氏掌管下的银行业取得的成绩可以称之为卓尔不凡了。
Mr Geithner readily admits that his interventions have bred moral hazard, but says holding off for that reason worsens a crisis and requires even bigger interventions later. “You will end up having to socialise much more risk and [create] much more future moral hazard,” he says. “You have to design the crisis response to mitigate moral hazard to the extent you can, and then change the rules of the game going forward to undo some of the damage you’ve caused.” Hence the Dodd-Frank banking reforms. The law became maddeningly long and complex in its passage through Congress. But it retains the features Mr Geithner considers crucial. It creates a mechanism for seizing and winding down big failing firms while limiting the government’s discretion to keep them as going concerns. By reinforcing capital and liquidity buffers throughout the financial system, the law allows policymakers to be almost “indifferent about contagion caused by one institution”.
盖氏的干预政策受到道德方面的质疑,他对此直言不讳。但他认为,如果因噎厌食,危害更大,甚至导致更大的政府干预。最后,(经济)危机导致(社会)危机,道德危机也会因此而滋生在其位,谋其职,作为财长,应全力积极应对(金融)危机,减少因投保人不可靠而造成的风险。然而,智者千虑,必有一失,在处理过程中难免产生一些负面影响,这时修订一些金融法律法规,挽回损失,这便是我义务所在。Dodd-Frank金融系统改革法案应运而生,经过旷日持久,繁复琐碎的种种程序,最终该方案为国会所批准。该部法案具有浓浓的盖氏风范,盖蒂纳处理金融危机种种,在些法案中均有体现。根据该方案,经营不善的大型金融机构将逐渐关、停、并、转,同时,政府在处理有关问题也不敢掉以轻心。通过一系列诸如稳定资产,减少流通资金风险的措施,决策者无须再为由某金融机构引起的大规模金融系统内部的混乱买单。(意译。。。。。)

Dodd-Frank guarantees that Mr Geithner has left his mark on America’s financial system. America’s finances are another matter. The budget deficit has exceeded $1 trillion in each year of his tenure. Given the slack that persists in the economy, temporary big deficits are not that troubling. Mr Geithner says it would take spending cuts and tax increases of only about 0.75% of GDP to stabilise the debt relative to GDP over the next decade.
(因为)Dodd-Frank法案的实施,盖蒂纳对美国金融业产生了深远的影响,但美国当下的财务状况则与之相反(与之相反?another matter?),在盖氏的任期内,预算赤字每年超支1万亿(一定记得加一万亿美元,是美元,)。考虑经济疲软的因素,巨额财政赤字是暂时的,不足以影响美国经济发展。盖蒂纳认为在未来十年内,美国政府应削减开支,增加税收,此两项每年仅需达到当年GDP0.75%,就足以使美国债务趋于稳定。(接下来十年内都削减开支,增加税收?)
Much more troubling is the lack of a plan to produce that path to stability. The reasons are many: it has not been a priority for Mr Obama, and negotiations with Republicans have foundered on the gaping difference in their respective visions. The result has been a series of deals hammered out at the last minute and, in the summer of 2011, a near-crisis as the government came within days of running out of cash before the debt ceiling was raised.
然而,缺少一个行之有效的行动方案保证增税减支按部就班的进行,从而达到收支平衡,这很让人烦心。其原因是多方面的——奥巴马总统没有将增税减支作为工作重点;共和党内部各方各执一词,(negotiations with Republicans不是within Republicans.奥巴马的民主党和共和党的协商失败)观点不一,致使协商失败。2011年夏,美国政府面临资金消耗殆尽的危险,紧要关头,一连串与之关联的协议终于一锤定音。
In 2011, Mr Geithner recalls, he “reminded people over and again, in the case of an existential Europe collapse or of a complete congressional impasse where they had forced us to default, we had no meaningful ability to protect the economy from the consequences. The way the US system is set up, Congress has all the firepower, the executive branch has almost no standing firepower.”
回首2011,盖蒂纳记得自己当时总是不停的告诫人们,欧洲面临分崩离析的危险,而美国国会(对财政部的提案)僵持不下,美国被迫拖欠债务,为此财政部也没有有效的手段去避免这种后果。美国的政治体系已然决定了国会具有决对(绝对)的决策权,而相关执行部门几乎没有说话的份。
This is not about to change. This year will be dominated by continuous warfare between Mr Obama and Congress. The outcome will depend less on the merits of competing proposals than on who has the advantage in public opinion. If things go wrong, the country could again need a crisis manager. But with luck, Mr Geithner’s skills will not be needed again.
这种情形还将延续下去。奥巴马总统与国会之间的针锋相对将成为今年的热点。究竟花落谁家,取决于谁能够获得更多广大人民群众的认可,而并非提案本身所具有的优势。如果情势发展不利,美国还需金融危机处理专家来运筹帷幄。但吉星高照,美国经济终将迎来春天,盖蒂纳无须再耗尽其才去应付金融危机。(最后一句,我觉得应该是如果幸运的话,这篇文章出来的时候美国的经济绝对不算是吉星高照。)

你的译文我仔细看了,所提建议不一定都准确,我真是学习了不少,你的遣词造句我佩服,但是意译一定要把握个度,一不小心就会加进去原文里没有的东西,我这篇翻译貌似都是直白的按原文译的多,反正是我看了这一遍还是觉得你翻的挺好的,关于意译还是直译专家都说不准,我们把握好度,忠实原文,表达作者意图就够了。里面我确实还有不确定的,我们再讨论。敢问你这篇翻了多长时间?这么多词是到嘴边就出来的?
引用 dawnsha 2013-2-22 19:30
lilianxiao 发表于 2013-2-22 15:50
Farewell, Tim Geithner
一路走好,蒂莫西_盖特纳

我是上班的,你是同学吧,我一般上班的时候有空才能翻,时间比较长,而且家里的事情也多,我确实是受意译的影响较大,我有老师提倡得意忘形,所以个人比较不喜欢直译,我另外还有一篇文章发表在论坛里,请你拍装,您的意见,我先拷贝下来慢慢看,大家一起学习,我在沪江网花的时间比较多。这里来的比较少,我个人对翻译的理解是,我的译文必须让我们那里的阿姨看,如果她看懂,我就发帖。不是太追求实事求是,可能是我的弱点,您的建议很有见地,受教!现在功力尚浅,一般先拿别人的译文练手,也是怕陷入意译太深。

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