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[2011.10.20] 全球变暖加剧

2011-10-21 17:38| 发布者: Somers| 查看: 5221| 评论: 5|原作者: migmig

摘要: 对全球变暖的最新估计方法

气候变化

越来越热/全球变暖加剧

Oct 20th 2011, 13:02 by The Economist online

 

对全球变暖的最新估计方法

对于那些质疑全球变暖是否真在发生的人来说,必须使他们相信仪器测量温度记录是错误的才行。这或许比你想象的要容易一些。世界存在三份可回溯150年的全球平均温度汇编,分别来自美国宇航局、国家海洋和大气管理局以及英国国家气象局和东英吉利大学气候研究中心(即哈德利气候研究中心)的共同研究。这些编撰表明了一个相似模式:在过去半个世纪内,陆地温度累计升高达0.9度。不过,这种一致性掩盖了原始数据很大的不确定性以及对他们测量方法的疑问。不过,“伯克利地表温度”课题对当前数据的研究和分析更加佐证了现存温度汇编。10月20日发布了四份尚在进行同行审查的论文描述的结果。据论文结果估算,在过去50年间,地表温度增加了0.911度,比国家海洋和大气管理局的估计只少2%。且不说其使用了新颖的测量方法,单就测量本身,就有至少一部分是为了解决该小组组长理查德·穆勒所谓的“正当性怀疑”。这一研究从15个独立渠道整合而来,副本和错误都被清晰地标明,将与支持数据一起发布在网上。在对仪器测量温度记录疑问加大的时刻,这一研究将传播其主要结论:现存的平均测量是大致正确的。这意味着地球变暖的速度更快了。
20111022_WOC686.gif

感谢译者 migmig 点击此处阅读双语版

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引用 林木木 2011-10-21 08:31
本帖最后由 林木木 于 2011-10-21 08:35 编辑

A new measure of global warming
对全球变暖的最新估计
估量方法?

伯克利地球表面温度
地表温度?

That is despite its use of a novel methodology—designed, at least in part, to address the concerns of what its head, Richard Muller, terms “legitimate sceptics”.
尽管这一结果至少在部分上使用了新的设计好的方法,它的目的在于解决该小组组长理查德·穆勒所谓的“正当性怀疑”。
且不说其使用了新颖的测量方法,单就测量本身,就有至少一部分是为了解决该小组组长理查德·穆勒所谓的“正当性怀疑”。
我是这么理解的,不知道对不对~
引用 migmig 2011-10-21 08:38
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature 好像是个什么机构

引用 caibineco 2011-10-21 11:44
migmig 发表于 2011-10-21 08:38
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature 好像是个什么机构

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth_Surface_Temperature
引用 migmig 2011-10-21 11:49
caibineco 发表于 2011-10-21 11:44
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth_Surface_Temperature

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project is an effort to resolve criticism of the current records of the Earth's surface temperatures by preparing an open database and analysis of these temperatures and temperature trends, to be available online, with all calculations, methods and results also to be freely available online. BEST's stated aim is a "transparent approach, based on data analysis." [1] "Our results will include not only our best estimate for the global temperature change, but estimates of the uncertainties in the record." [2]

"We are bringing the spirit of science back to a subject that has become too argumentative and too contentious," BEST founder Richard A. Muller told The Guardian. "We are an independent, non-political, non-partisan group. We will gather the data, do the analysis, present the results and make all of it available. There will be no spin, whatever we find. We are doing this because it is the most important project in the world today. Nothing else comes close." [3]

Lead scientist Robert Rohde has assembled a preliminary temperature database by combining 1.6 billion temperature reports from 10 preexisting data archives (4 daily and 6 monthly). The records are in 14 different formats and they overlap, but not completely. Muller likens Rohde's achievement to Hercules cleaning the Augean stables. [3]

According to the Center for Investigative Reporting's California Watch project, Muller and BEST adviser Judith Curry are both seen as climate skeptics by many in the climate science world.[4]

The BEST project is funded by unrestricted educational grants totalling (as of March 2011) about $635,000. Large donors include Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Charles G. Koch Foundation, the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (FICER)[5], and the William K. Bowes, Jr. Foundation.[6] The donors have no control over how BEST conducts the research or what they publish.[7]


project:
task set as an educational exercise which requires students to do their own research and present the results (学校的)科研习作项目, 课题
引用 autophagic 2011-10-22 09:03
回复 林木木 的帖子

Richard原本对全球变暖的观点持“合理怀疑”态度,设计此新方法的初衷部分原因也是为了验证假设是否合理,但研究结果事与愿违。

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